Your forgetting one thing
LWOP are still employees & articulate back in & likely have first dibs at other group employment EOIs etc
if nothing going at mainline when their time is up & because there is at least the same number of pilots employed in other group airlines outside of mainline (Aust/NZ)
- well that could sort of be important
CR have preference for re-employment when external employment opens at mainline again (nothing mentioned about other group airlines at all)
Gee I wonder when that might be ?
7.5 year break after GFC why would anyone think that number would be less ?

Oh but CR is such a wonderful deal you will get six months pay & we will all be going gangbusters in a few years time just screaming out for crew
project Sunrise will be going off & the Qantas Pilot Academy will be pumping out 500 per year to deal with the pilot shortage. Its all just a big bluff
by AJ , they need us skill & expertise as the most elite group of Airline Pilots in the world. Hang in there mate it is all just a big bluff , as Keg once suggested
vaccines before EOY

That's incorrect. If the surplus is 300 pilots, and 300 take LWOP, 300 pilots are still needed to take VR or CR. LWOP will not change that. It has been quoted and said countless times in the webinars. You are getting confused with a long term surplus vs short term surplus (Tino's words not mine).

Lots of backlash from senior crew here. I get it. Your blanket of seniority has come under scrutiny. The reality is that senior crew don't want any junior crew to take LWOP - that is because they want pilots beneath them to take the fall if redundancy's happen.

I'm not encouraging junior crew to take LWOP. I'm encouraging all longhaul crew to take LWOP. Firstly it helps the company save $ in this harsh environment, and secondly it may save your career.

The company has put the ball in our court. Make your own choice carefully - it may affect your career.

Hahahaha! Make your own choice? Mate you haven’t stopped banging on about everyone making YOUR choice. Give it a rest.

Normanton
The pilots agreement states that among other things the company has to implement a RIN process before any CR takes place.
How does being on LWOP protect you from being displaced? If 100 of the most junior 787/A330 S/O’s are displaced how are they deemed to be redundant?
If all current S/O positions/jobs are still available there are no redundant positions just a bunch of displaced pilots on LWOP.
Good luck buddy .

Where I stand...I won’t be taking VR. If the company will pay me out 15years plus, good for them and me. Might even be good for you should your logic stand. For that reason, I don’t fear CR and what more junior people do is up to them. I’d suggest I wouldn’t be alone in this attitude.

What other group EOIs are these Telfer? JQ? Unlikely given their own issues. QLink on the Dash? Nope, they’re full and facing their own downturn. EFA? Perhaps but they’re largely seeking those already endorsed and history has shown they’re taking their own back. Network expansion on the A320? So far they’re after those already endorsed and it seems to be targeting JQ pilots in PER.

So beyond EFA taking their own back and Network seeking A320 endorsed drivers IF they get the demand for the extra A320s, what are these group opportunities?

Of course if one of those options is likely to be the ace up your sleeve then by all means take LWOP and go for it.

CR and being re-employed in 5 years time seems as likely, and pays more, than taking LWOP for the next five years.

So what is the ‘long term surplus’ Normanton? Bah, on second thoughts, don’t bother. I’m not interested discussing the issue with you. Apply for LWOP by all means. We’ll see you in 3-5 years.

Talk about delusional? What a w@nk! :}

Well since the start of Covid there have been three EOIs one a few of months ago to Network and also to EFA
There is currently another one to Network which I understand to be for over 30 pilots , not sure of the original numbers for the first two EOIs
Lets say around 50 since the start , no huge numbers but you have to remember this is a decimation of Aviation industries , makes GFC , 9/11 , early 90s recession
look like small beer, would also make the 70s oil crisis look like small beer
So I would say 3 separate EOIs & 50 places available to only QF group members is very good
So who knows what further EOIs will happen over the next five years given that to date in the eye of the storm 50 places are available
Airlines that could employ are Network , Qlink dash 8 , 717 operation, Jetconnect , Jetstar Australia , EFA , Jetstar NZ - likely combined have more pilots than
QF mainline. & given a lot of QF mainline guys have just left Qlink or JQ , well relatively easy to transition back . NZ seems to be ticking along pretty well
Maybe JQ will be back in the game way before QF mainline 737 - seems like a pretty good chance your business clientele just aren't going to fly

If you get rolled in CR you only hope is QF mainline , one airline out of the nine in the group in Australia/NZ that has around 70% of crew in Long Haul
(Yaaahy LH - the place to be !)

So the numbers are around 50 vacancies via EOI in six months during the Chernobyl moment , I ain't too bright but I might be thinking the only way that
number will go is northwards

Free country & if people view preservation of their annual & long service & various other entitlements as more important - well that is a matter for them

I just think they may well discover that they have made a very expensive mistake & be watching their colleagues who took lwop early back in a QF uniform
doing fifo , night freight , a320 NZ etc when all you have to show is a CR notice (oh but you didn't surrender your entitlements, you showed them didn't ya ) & a tenuous possibility
of reemployment several years away

no. Doxxing is a d!ck move no matter how you dress it
just argue with him here ffs

Let me a bit more blunt. If you’re a mainline pilot with A320 time then by all means go on LWOP in the hope that Network open up and need crew with A320 experience. Of course you’ll be competing with JQ crew who are still current on the type and reside in PER but knock your socks off.

If you’re a mainline pilot with previous 717 experience by all means go on LWOP in the hope that National Jet need crew. They’ve got bugger all flying for their airframes at the moment also and their crew are unlikely to be moving on to other airlines so no massive need there.

If you’ve got previous Dash 8 experience then by all means do the same. Oh, but wait. They’re in the same boat as JQ and NJS and don’t have enough flying for the amount of crew they currently have and they too aren’t shedding pilots to other employers.

If you’ve got previous experience with EFA then by all means do the same given that the EOI they opened up to mainline was filled by crew who came from EFA in the last couple of years.

So yep, I can totally see how this option would suit just a small handful of mainline crew. By all means I encourage those who see such opportunities to take LWOP so that they can avail themselves of the plethora of EOIs you see coming down range.

Agreed. And even more so if it turns out you’ve got the wrong person. From the few messages I’ve received I suspect a few people may be barking up the wrong tree.

You are assuming that how things are working atm regarding experience required/preferred will remain fixed & static

Where is it written down that other QF airlines won't endorse suitable pilots from other group airlines in 6 /12 / 18 months
if they so chose. Do you really think they would hire externals before doing that

I hope Virgin get back in the air , but that is no sure thing & if so maybe about 500 crew

So Australia will likely remain solely(or largely) a QF group show regarding jet rpt , with Qlink twice as many pilots as Rex

Approx 2300 in mainline , 2000 + other QF group airlines in Aust/NZ ; so the other group airlines are half the game

They only benefit I can see remaining as junior crew at mainline are that you continue to accrue various leave entitlements & a six
month redundancy payment

You are effectively putting all of your eggs in one basket & any re-employment after CR would only occur when ML again recruit externally
which could well be next decade

Lwop gives you a fixed datal return, protects you from CR and you will likely have a shot at any opportunity in the group & they will look
after there own as they always have.

Why would you rule yourself out of half of the game in Australia/NZ ?

No. It doesn’t. What if when you want to come back Qantas has already made a couple of hundred redundant and still doesn’t need you? Back on LWOP you go! Again, you’re banking on someone senior to you being CR’d and you coming back first. They’ll just keep pushing you away until you would have been re-employed anyway. Sure, you may jump a handful of people, but not if everyone thinks the same as you and everyone takes LWOP. Now you’re coming back in your six year time frame, in seniority... having been paid zilch.

Let’s leave aside the pipe dream that is internal EOIs. Who are they going to train into Network? The S/O on LWOP who will want to return to mainline in a couple of years, or the ex EK F/O returning to Australia and is likely to stay at Network for the next decade?

That’s not how LWOP works.

You have an agreed return date. On the date of your return, you are an employee again.

Of course, Qantas could turn around and announce a further CR program the next day.

Or prior to your return, they could negotiate with you for you to take a further period of LWOP, possibly with the threat of further redundancies to help with your “thinking”, but they can’t force you to take another period of LWOP.

Precisely! You’ve already demonstrated that you’ll go on LWOP to avoid redundancy. It’ll be pretty clear before your LWOP is completed whether you’re needed or not and how likely additional CR may be.

It's all crystal ball gazing to one degree or another

But I highly doubt the QF group airlines will employ any externals whilst they have their own guys stood down or lwop

Maybe 50 jobs up for grabs to date & they sure weren't putting them on afap

That's why all the non-QF guys are just in a diabolical situation - just zero options

There might be various strings in taking up a position with another entity - but they tend to minimise that for their "own guys" if you
look at QF mainline guys going to JQ - they never had to pay for aircraft rating etc

Why wouldn't someone take lwop to protect against CR ?

Is the suggestion just to stay there like a lemming & take one for the team ?

The message from AJ is help us out & we may well help you out

Wow. Such insight.

You guys, the tiny minority, sure - go on LWOP and try and "jump" people in a few years time - but if it's such a good idea, why are you trying to convince others..? And what's the plan in 1, 2, 3 (whatever) years time when QF say nope go away again and no more pass over for CR this time?

Is LWOP really an option. Years! is a long time, you won't be entitled to jobseeker and you have to survive a long and deep recession during that time. what are you going to do for income.

And Therein lies the reality. Not only for the profession, but for the wider economy. Hopefully something positive will soon jump out of the hat, but that light at the end of the tunnel appears to be just getting dimmer.

We’re on a cliff people make no mistake.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b3a1b55917.gif

Why would you be thinking about LWOP if you don’t have another job locked in?
Once you’re on LWOP the company washes their hands of you. You should hope that your new job sticks too because you can’t go running back to QF if you want to.
Im getting the funny feeling that QF know that they can’t run stand downs in the long term. I don’t know how they are going to get around it, or afford it, hence the reason to get rid of so many now....and reduce MGH!