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Realistically, I can't see the A380 ever returning except for a small number in one or two airlines on a handful of routes. It's the modern equivalent of the Concorde. Airlines are pruning their fleets of older, inefficient and 4 engined types, even early A320s are being scrapped. Once air travel starts to return, B787s and A350s will be first out of the gate, CX have pushed the B777 - 9 back to beyond 2025 and even their current B777 fleet isn't looking good.
It would be very hard to make a case for bringing the aircraft back into service and operating it in comparison to newer twins, QF might not have the critical mass required to make it worthwhile if it could only be justified on a couple of runs. Even the few airlines which continue to operate it may have to look at reducing the size of the premium cabins. |
The thing is QF own their 380s, and now they have been able to fully depreciate them. I find it hard NOT to see them, well at least the 6 refurbed ones coming back.
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Agree OnceBitten , only if demand returns !
Unfortunately a postCovid induced bounce back is looking more and more problematic. My crystal ball is starting to coalesce showing a greatly reduced world wide demand for air travel which puts the 787 in the box seat and question marks on affordability of 350’s if the Western Worlds economy goes into a secular bear market business cycle . |
Originally Posted by OnceBitten
(Post 10913195)
The thing is QF own their 380s, and now they have been able to fully depreciate them. I find it hard NOT to see them, well at least the 6 refurbed ones coming back.
The A380 is an aircraft designed to operate between hubs and is too large to be used cost effectively on P2P routes. As it is an aircraft with a huge fuel burn (per seat km) and higher maintenance costs than other types that are available, it would be difficult to bring it back into service - despite the fact that six of them have had an expensive upgrade of the upper deck. If it is decided to not bring the A380's back into service, some of the upgrade costs could be salvaged by removing all of the new Business & Premium Economy seats from them and fitting them to new B787's or A350's that would be ordered in the future for the P2P routes. |
Before COVID, the B777 was a better proposition for most airlines then the A380, now major operators of the B777 have largely grounded them in favour of smaller types. SQ and CX are becoming narrow body operators through merging Silk Air and Cathay Dragon into mainline.
With the likely availability of large numbers of relatively new B777s at depressed prices on the second hand market over the next few years, the option of acquiring a newer more efficient aircraft type with a much longer projected time in service could prove attractive when compared to spending less money to bring back an already deprecated aircraft which is more expensive to operate and will likely only remain with the company for a few years. The requirement for large premium cabins is well down the list of what’s needed. In the short to medium term, I can see narrow bodies flying to the limit of their range, B787s and A330s for longer distances with B777 and A350 on routes which can support them. With the number of grounded aircraft, the newer more efficient ones will be most of the work. |
All good points above, but the question that crew want an answer to is:
”When do we start getting paid again?” |
Not anytime soon sadly. Qantas have been ruthless in their ability to have one group of pilots on full pay whilst another group is on ‘no’ pay, where is the incentive for them to change that? They are talking about being cashflow positive now, share price being good and recovery on track, all points to big executive pay and bonuses, they won’t risk that by paying people who aren’t needed for flying. Sadly that means if you are a long haul pilot for either Jetstar or Qantas you may be in for a long wait.
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion
(Post 10913917)
Not anytime soon sadly. Qantas have been ruthless in their ability to have one group of pilots on full pay whilst another group is on ‘no’ pay, where is the incentive for them to change that? They are talking about being cashflow positive now, share price being good and recovery on track, all points to big executive pay and bonuses, they won’t risk that by paying people who aren’t needed for flying. Sadly that means if you are a long haul pilot for either Jetstar or Qantas you may be in for a long wait.
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OK, and how does that help any of the long haul pilots.
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Originally Posted by ruprecht
(Post 10913912)
All good points above, but the question that crew want an answer to is:
”When do we start getting paid again?” Europe/USA look to be out of action for a while, maybe until a vaccine or at the bare minimum next Northern Summer but that would be optimistic. At the moment no flying there planned until end 2021. Undoubtedly would restart on the 787 as the passenger numbers wouldn’t justify a 380. Asia looks better, there is a possibility of bubbles being opened up but again the route would have to be profitable before flying starts. So definitely no need for 380 in the short/medium term. The 330 should get a fair amount of it’s Asian network back but may lose some domestically. The 787 may get some additional flying to previously unserviced Asian ports, and this will help the 330 too. The Chairman basically indicated the same in the following article: Qantas to chase new Asian routes, with flights to UK and United States unlikely for another year - ABC News I could foresee the possibility of 330 crews being stood up on a reduced divisor by end 2021. Maybe a proportion of 787 crews too, although they would be more dependent on things like vaccines or the situation in Europe/North America improving to get back to a regular schedule. |
So, indefinite stand down is redundancy without a payout. :hmm:
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So if your stood down for 2 years when get the axe you get nothing? Would there not be some PR consequences as a result of such behaviour?
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You will see the last three 787’s brought into service before you see a QF A380 in the skies again. Vaccines are not going to fix this. Short time Testing, quick and accurate tracing and preventative medication will gradually see borders (via Bubbles) Open quicker than any Vaccine. Demand will be crazy once the green light is given by the totalitarian regime in Canberra. Even some quarantine (less than 2days) will still see a fast recovery. Take out the Aviation industry and this is a recession for low income earners. It will interesting if any Covid cases appear in Howard springs with pre departure testing a requirement of the repatriation trickle offered by the Government.
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion
(Post 10913940)
OK, and how does that help any of the long haul pilots.
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What are you talking about, I am simply saying that Long Haul pilots are likely to stay stood down until demand warrants their aircraft being returned to service. That could be 3 years.
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Originally Posted by Ollie Onion
(Post 10913985)
What are you talking about, I am simply saying that Long Haul pilots are likely to stay stood down until demand warrants their aircraft being returned to service. That could be 3 years.
But that is not likely in the short term. So the best thing is to offer any support to our stood down colleagues, be it friendship, emotional, alternative employment, financial as best as possible. It is a truth that some fleets will be more affected than others, as well as other entities who were made redundant en masse. A positive is that stood down LH pilots remain employed in the group, have access to all company support services and from the looks of it will probably be able to go into some type of recurrent training program to regain and keep currency for when things do return. |
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Interesting times for sure. The A380 is a fat, fuel-guzzling lump of plastic that would only make money when it was close to full so it’s no surprise that it won’t fly for a while.
However, at what point will not flying the A380 cease to be a COVID decision, and start to become a financial decision? :hmm: |
Originally Posted by ruprecht
(Post 10914005)
Interesting times for sure. The A380 is a fat, fuel-guzzling lump of plastic that would only make money when it was close to full so it’s no surprise that it won’t fly for a while.
However, at what point will not flying the A380 cease to be a COVID decision, and start to become a financial decision? :hmm: (i) the collapse in passenger travel; (ii) measures implemented domestically and internationally to restrict movement; (iii) the increasing concern that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be sustained; and (iv) uncertainty as to how long the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would last As reasons beyond company control. One could say that until those conditions have ceased then stand downs can occur. Until passenger travel numbers justify the use of larger aircraft. Until the pandemic ceases. Even if borders are open I think there’ll still be government mandated restrictions here and abroad on entry, quarantines, vaccinations and testing that will justify the “measures implemented to restrict movement” condition. |
Qatar Airways have a worldwide network of possible destinations for the A380, yet they can't see any need for it for at least the next couple of years, possibly not even ever again. With only ten of the type in service, they are far less committed to it than EK, and have a reasonably diverse fleet of other types to replace it with. EK have been badly hit, with the A380 making up 40% of its fleet and the only alternative being the B777 which is too large for current passenger numbers.
DUBAI, Oct 19 — Qatar Airways does not expect to use its Airbus A380s for at least the next two years, its chief executive said today, longer than a previous projection for the superjumbos to possibly return to service in 2021. The state-owned airline has parked its 10 A380s due to the devastating impact of the coronavirus crisis on travel demand. “We don’t think we are going to operate our A380s for at least the next couple of years,” Akbar al-Baker told an online conference. He had said in June the jets would remain parked until at least the middle of next year. The Gulf carrier plans to start retiring its A380s from 2024 when its oldest superjumbo reaches ten years of service. The A380s would return once the airline saw the growth rate of 2019, before the pandemic struck, Baker said. The 100 destinations to which the airline is currently flying is 25 fewer than planned due to a new wave of infections in Europe and travel restrictions, he said. Baker criticised rivals operating the A380 as “foolish”, saying there was insufficient demand and so prices would be driven down. Air France retired its A380s this year, while British Airways and Qantas retired their Boeing 747s as the crisis sent air travel into free fall. Gulf carrier Etihad Airways is mulling whether its parked A380 fleet will ever return, while Emirates, the largest superjumbo operator, has resumed some services with the jet. — Reuters |
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