Got a reference for that?

You need to be thinking statistics.

1. You get ill if your body is infected with say 10,000,000 virus particles and your immune system can only neutralise 99,999,999 of them before your cells make another 10,000,000. You get better if your body can destroy virus particles faster than they can be made. If its the reverse, you die. Think something like Spitfire production vs ME109 to get the idea.

2. What a vaccine does is give your immune system a head start in battle#1.

3. A pandemic is a similar statistical exercise you need R0 to go to less than one to beat it. Anything that reduces the infection rate helps, vaccines, lockdowns etc.

Which brings up JRFSp's comment. It doesn't matter if a vaccine is only "90%" protective o an individual. What matters is getting R0 less than one. The vaccine doesnt have to be 100 percent effective to end the pandemic.

Sure: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-572...ost_type=share

Wow. Quoting a conservative MP’s claims made in the House of Commons as a basis of fact. Impressive.

Serious studies suggest otherwise.

well that’s perhaps worse than expected. Or is it, can’t think at the moment.

stats are 57.6% have one vaccine
35.4% have had both

so that 10% of admissions relates only to the 35.4% which leaves 57.6% - 35.4% = 22.2% with only one shot. One shot is significantly less effective than two.

so there must be another 10% or so of admissions of people who have had only one of the two shots.

I would have thought with over a third of the population fully vaccinated and we were all told these were 90% + effective that there would be a lot less than 10% of total hospital admissions from this group. Sounds like these vaccines are not anywhere near as effective as first thought as being admitted to hospital clearly indicates a serious condition which is what the vaccines were meant to stop.

Not sure where he was getting the 10% figure from. I sure hope it is inaccurate.
which it appears to be.

The study analysed a quarter of all hospital patients in England, Scotland and Wales between early December and early April, and is one of the first to look at the impact of vaccinations on the numbers of people subsequently admitted to hospital with Covid-19.

It suggests that around 1% of hospital admissions between December and April were of people with Covid who had already had one vaccine dose.

The study found higher numbers of Covid hospital admissions around the time of vaccination and soon after, before the jab had started to work. Admissions then tailed off as protection from the vaccine built up.

Yes they’re are effective against DEATH or severe COVID. Some hospitalisations are inevitable. No two humans are the same. There is no silver bullet. Just because you’re in hospital doesn’t mean it’s necessarily severe disease. Depends on the state’s relevant policy. Qld I believe will admit you if you are COVID positive but I’m not 100% sure on that. Each state or country has varying requirements for admission.

From the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7018e1.htm
“In a multistate network of U.S. hospitals during January–March 2021, receipt of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines was 94% effective against COVID-19 hospitalization among fully vaccinated adults and 64% effective among partially vaccinated adults aged ≥65 years.”

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....94011d0f03.png
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

So... that would make from a country's population of 66.7 million what... 95 people? 95 out of 66.7 million in hospital with covid who have been vaccinated. I'm sure the NHS can handle that amount. Not to mention that we don't know whether those people had been fully vaccinated. As in two doses, and at least three weeks after the last dose. If they hadn't - NEWSFLASH "Man with holes in umbrella gets wet when it rains".

But then, the PM needs to actually get a cohesive vaccination program sorted, but that seems rather illusive for a failed advertising executive. If you think SloMo is really acting in the country's best interest, you're gravely mistaken. Just wait until after the election, the so-called 'medical advice' will miraculously change to be in favour of opening the borders.

Fuel-Off :ok:

As far as i am aware if someone who has been vaccinated does get the virus their symptoms will me a lot less than non vaccinated & the risk of dying almost eliminated.
So what you say in your 1st paragraph backs that up i think.
The pm has done nothing to have a robust vaccination program in place,as you allude to he is in no way acting in the country's best interest.
Instead of embarrasing himself doing a photo shoot hanging out of an aircraft window he needs to take control of the mess he is presiding over.
Interesting how quiet he has been the last couple of days,wonder why that could be.

Perhaps we should be sending some of these to Victorians to enjoy during their lockdown.

https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/B00A2HD40E

"news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated"
Well there are statistics and statistics. The UK prioritised vaccinations as in Australia by priority groups. My guess would be some of the hospitalisations may well have nothing to do with covid but more the underlying health condition and they just happen to have covid.
Latest data shows 65-90% reduction in symptomatic disease, 75-95% reduction in hospitilisation, 95-99% reduction in mortality after 2 doses and depending on vaccine type.
Source: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 21 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

A few people here are mis-understanding the area of complex medicine and complex medicl conditions.
I have had in my family all my life with complex medical conditions so I have spent lots and lots of time in hospital waiting rooms.
Firstly, many people don;t understand the notion of "effectivness". I'll post a video that shows it's almost a random rumber based on a single study. It often has no relation to the numbers generated after say 5 years of use.

I have read the reprt from the NHS twice and can't find the refference to the 1in10 in hospital who have been vacinated.
However, it could be true, but for a different reason. A vaccination does not stop you getting the virus (as believed by lots lf people in the community), but for people with complex medical conditions who are fully vaccinated, getting covid (or influenza or dozens of other viruses) can cause a cascade of other problems which puts them in hospital. Their immune system may be combating Covid quite successfully, but due to the fragility of their other systems you ger a rapidly cascading set of other sytem problems. I suspect this is the case in the NHS numbers but will have to wait a few years for a full study to be be published.

I have a step-daugter in this position - she has been sent to hospital by helicopter 7 times through her life for this exact reason.

Apologies Guptar.
My post was in reply to the statement news out of the UK shows 1 in 10 in hospital with covid have been fully vaccinated that someone else posted. I then made the point about other health conditions as you have. The NHS report that I quoted was just to make the point about the correct numbers if one had both doses of a vaccine.... it was not to back up the assertion of 10% of admissions have covid. That may or may not be true, I do not know. I was just referencing my source for those numbers.

SA now closed to all of Victoria.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ca273601f.jpeg
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....26cfd7e52.jpeg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....aaf5f31b4.jpeg

Has it not been 3 day lockdowns for other states recently? - to get on top of things, when community cases happen.

7 or even 10 days is not an incubation period - Victoria must be well behind the 8 ball compared to other states.

Vaccine hesitancy is only going to increase given the ridiculous fearmongering some media have taken over vaccines:


The border isn’t getting reopened without the vaccine rollout being completed so this is just fuelling the fire.

Completely agree Dre. WA (and many Australians) living in their own little temporary dream land. One day (soon enough) their Utopia will burn down without decisive action to vaccinate the masses.

1 in 88000 chance of getting a blood clot with the Astrazeneca. If there was a 1 in 88000 change of your engine blowing up you wouldn't go flying.

The sheep like ignorance of Australian is disconcerting. Australia is not a day advanced since March last year wrt to implementing reopening of the country. These rolling lockdowns are a bloody joke. What metric is the vic government using to allow the lockdown to be lifted? 5 days with no community spread?, 7 days 20 days? No policy. What about with vaccinations? Will Morrison open the international borders after 50% of the population is vaccinated? 60, 80, 20? Who knows. All Morrison wants is to get reelected.

Hotels for quarantine? what an absolute joke.

Reductions in group gatherings - but you can have 40000 people sitting next to each other in a football stadium.

In the last Vic lockdown (as this one) only essential workers can go to work. YET THEY HELD THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN. It is a an embarrassment.

No job keeper now, so I feel sorry for the Aussie workers that are going to devastated by this latest lockdown.

WA very recently had a otherwise fit and healthy person die soon after getting vaccinated (about 2 weeks) - official cause of death was still to be determined as of last weekend.

I don't read the papers, but heard nothing about this other than from an employee of the deceased sisters.

Yes you would. That’s why they started putting more than one engine on aeroplanes.

They didn’t call the Constellation the world’s best 3 engine airliner for nothing!

Well it isn’t just WA, I used that front page as an visual example but media all across Australia have pushed these scare mongering stories and then we wonder why vaccine hesitancy is high all across the country.

The fact Australia is only at 10% coverage whereas most first world and a lot of third world countries are approaching or above 50% is a failure of a lot of parties, the media need to be held to account but at the end of the day it’s the federal government who need to reign them in and they’ve failed to do so.

I'm sure it was merely coincidence that the Vic State of Emergency was due to expire in a day or two and could only be extended with another 'emergency'...

Not true at all. It has been continuously extended every month of the pandemic.

I always get a chuckle out of that one.
When did you last see that happen. Especially from a government that is heavily reliant on the ScoMo sound bites for its very existence.

Scott Morrison's secret for political success is to always be the bearer of glad tidings, never the bearer of bad news. To make someone else carry the can when things go wrong.

I wonder if Kerry has had the vaccine.

I agree with your post apart from this bit,do you really want the feds to have the power to censor the press?
I had the AZ and no side affects at all. It may immunise me from getting a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't give any other advantages whatsoever. If being vaccinated meant you didn't have to get locked down every time the hotel quarantine system leaks then people might be more likely to take it up.

Not censoring the press but debunking false info.

What Morrison and Hunt should do is show leadership, call a press conference where they show data and facts informing the public on how minuscule the risks are of the vaccine in comparison to Covid, have it in conjunction with all state premiers too. Get in the media with firm statements and explain the seriousness of not getting vaccinated. Morrison should even get an AZ vaccine live to show he wasn’t playing safe by staying with Pfizer.

Do that every day for the rest of the year if need be.

Of course it won’t happen as all he is about is photo ops and good PR. A small target approach and locking up the border until the election is over. He is not prepared to take any risks, just keep borders shut and hand out money to win an election.

Absolutely in violent agreement with you again dr dre.
Total failure on the part of the Feds to not having a campaign to debunk the absolute crap being espoused by some.

And thumbs up to ruprecht as well- as I’ve said before, I’m sick of his good cop/bad cop routine.

European Disease control data - from 28 May

Weekly surveillance summary

Overall situation

At the end of week 20 (week ending Sunday 23 May 2021), three countries in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) had reported increasing case notification rates and/or test positivity. Case rates in older age groups had not increased in any countries; one country reported increasing hospital or intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and/or increasing occupancy due to COVID-19, and no countries reported increasing death rates. Absolute values of several indicators, including hospital and ICU occupancy, remained high, but trends for a number of indicators were stable or decreasing in several countries. Moreover, the median cumulative uptake of at least one vaccine dose among adults aged 18 years and above in the EU/EEA is 41.7% and increasing, as reported in the COVID-19 Vaccine rollout overview.

Recent changes to the report

Country-level figures showing age-specific vaccine uptake aligned with key epidemiological indicators (age-specific case and death rates, hospital/ICU occupancy and admissions due to COVID-19) in Section 5.

Trends in reported cases and testing

• By the end of week 20, the 14-day case notification rate for the EU/EEA, based on data collected by ECDC from official national sources in 29 countries, was 132 (country range: 9-467) per 100 000 population. The rate has been decreasing for seven weeks.

• Among the 24 countries with high case notification rates (at least 60 per 100 000 population), an increase was observed in one country (Denmark). Stable or decreasing trends in case rates of 1–12 weeks’ duration were observed in 23 countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden).
  
• Based on data reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) from 23 countries for people over 65 years old, high levels (at least 60 per 100 000 population) or increases in the 14-day COVID-19 case notification rates compared with last week were observed in 13 countries (Belgium, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Sweden).
  
• Notification rates are dependent on several factors, one of which is the testing rate. Weekly testing rates for week 20, available for 29 countries, varied from 616 to 73 134 tests per 100 000 population. Denmark had the highest testing rate, followed by Austria, Greece, Cyprus and Czechia.
  

• Among the 13 countries in which weekly test positivity was high (at least 3%), no countries had observed an increase in test positivity compared with the previous week. Test positivity remained stable, or had decreased, in 13 countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden).

Hospitalisation and ICU

• Pooled data from 23 countries for week 20 show that there were 5.7 patients per 100 000 population in hospital due to COVID-19. According to weekly hospital admissions data pooled from 19 countries, new admissions were 3.6 per 100 000 population.
  
• Pooled data from 18 countries for week 20 show that there were 1.4 patients per 100 000 population in ICU due to COVID-19. Pooled weekly ICU admissions based on data from 13 countries show that there were 1.2 new admissions per 100 000 population.
  
• Hospital and/or ICU occupancy and/or new admissions due to COVID-19 were high (at least 25% of the peak level during the pandemic) or had increased compared with the previous week in 20 countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden). However, in 23 countries, there were decreases in these indicators compared with the previous week.
  

Mortality

• The 14-day COVID-19 death rate for the EU/EEA, based on data collected by ECDC from official national sources for 30 countries, was 31.0 (country range: 0.0-105.0) per million population. The rate has been decreasing for four weeks.

• Among the 21 countries with high 14-day COVID-19 death rates (at least 10 per million), no increases were observed. Stable or decreasing trends in death rates of 1–9 weeks’ duration were observed in 21 countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain).

Variants of concern (VOC) and variants of interest (VOI)

• Sequencing capacity varies greatly across the EU/EEA; 12 EU/EEA countries (Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway and Poland) met the recommended level of 10% or 500 sequences of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases sequenced and reported to the GISAID EpiCoV database by 25 May 2021, or to TESSy by 23 May 2021 (data referring to the period 3 May to 16 May 2021). During the same period, 11 countries sequenced and reported between 60 and 499 samples, while seven countries sequenced and reported <60 samples or did not report data.
  
• Among the 12 countries with the recommended level of 10% or 500 sequences reported per week in the period from 3 May to 16 May 2021, 10 had a valid denominator. The median (range) of the VOC reported in all samples sequenced in the period in these 10 countries was 90.4% (69.2–95.8%) for B.1.1.7, 0.8% (0.0–8.0%) for B.1.351, 0.3% (0.0–5.1%) for B.1.617, 0.2% (0.0–7.9%) for P.1 and 0.0% (0.0–1.3%) for B.1.1.7+E484K.
  
• The median (range) of the VOI reported in all samples sequenced in the period for these 10 countries was 0.0% (0.0–0.9%) for B.1.525, 0.0% (0.0–0.3%) for B.1.620 and 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) for B.1.621. A list of current variants of concern and variants of interest for the EU/EEA is published on ECDC’s website.
  

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs)

• Based on data reported to TESSy from seven countries (Belgium, France, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Sweden), in week 20, the pooled incidence of COVID-19 cases among LTCF residents was 64.2 per 100 000 LTCF beds, the pooled incidence of fatal COVID-19 cases was 6.6 per 100 000 LTCF beds, and 5.4% of participating LTCFs reported one or more new COVID-19 cases among their residents.

Open the borders, let's get back to normal again.....

Yeah, you got me there. More than a day or two, June 4th to be precise but, thanks for saving me having to prove my own point.

On a side note, have we reached peak madness yet?
https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...e2a7e36bb5880f

what a pity old chook up in Qld and her chief health officer still have not been vaccinated. Waiting for the Pfizer apparently. Can’t have that blood clot forming AstraZeneca vaccine.

and wonder why others are hesitant. Nothing like leadership.

Really? Leadership from politicians to motivate people to vaccinate? One minute they are pilloried for doing something and the next they’re pilloried for NOT doing something. It doesn’t help that pollies aren’t getting vaccinated but Scomo copped a spray because he did get a jab. Then he copped more because it was Pfizer!

i think most if not all state premieres and yes ScoMo have got the vaccine.

that is leadership

NOT getting it and waiting for the Pfizer vaccine when there are clearly people fearful of getting it due to the clotting issue is disgraceful. And waiting for the Pfizer vaccine …

anyone who was wavering has well founded grounds now for not getting the AstraZeneca jab themselves…

The post I was responding to mentioned getting state premiers to cooperate with the federal govt. we just had Labor Victoria blame the feds for their own latest incompetence. But then Dan is never to blame for anything bad.

and we have labor qld premier not getting vaccinated.

good luck getting any cooperation from those two states.
the only positive from the negligent Victorian situation is at least people are queuing up to get vaccinated now.

Yes. Whatever works. Tough situation (the pandemic, not all the other sh!t) all round for politicians, we shouldn’t be too hard on them. I can see what the federal government was trying to do and I also can see why the States went their own way. It’s one thing to tap on our keyboards and be critical and quite another to stand up in front of the media, constituents and business leaders to deliver a decision which is not going to be popular, trusting the public servants around you have given you the right data/information/facts/statistics. Would you honestly want to be in their shoes? There’s obviously a lot going on behind the scenes which we are not privy to. Not long to go now.

actually I would hate being any world leader or indeed state leader now.

same goes for being treasurer or health minister / head of health.

having said that I think there are certain behaviours that are unacceptable. Like not getting vaccinated.

This Dr is remarkably sensible for an American.
His chanel attempt to present an unbiased medically based view.

Amazing how much context seems to be presented for vaccine related deaths and injury, but not so much for Covid 19 itself :rolleyes:

Got more chance of getting hit by a bus than getting blood clots post the jab.

Getting vaccinated is common sense in my opinion. It is also common sense for the authorities to allow vaccinated people to travel freely anywhere in the world and be exempt from quarantine.