Projected recruitment minus projected retirements still leaves a net gain of pilots about double what the A350 will require, so extra aircraft or extra utilisation of current aircraft is being planned for in the next 5 years beyond the A350. They aren’t planning on getting rid of a whole fleet of aircraft.

Can you (or anyone else) please explain to me how the recent legislation regarding multi-employer bargaining debates this exact situation? As far as I'm aware, it's precisely why the group CEO was vehemently against it.

Multi employer bargaining doesn’t stop a company starting up new entities to perform work traditionally done by legacy employees, but it ensures that all employees in all companies would be under the same conditions. Not just one group, all Australian airlines flying similar aircraft. So a VA , QF, Rex and Bonza 737 driver would all be on the same conditions. It would also allow multiple employee groups to take PIA at the same time.

For obvious reasons employers are vehemently against this. Unfortunately for them it’s now law. For the time being it seems to be more targeted at low wage workers in unskilled jobs. It may come into play for pilots in future years, or companies may stop the outsourcing of labour and start to reverse course to prevent industry wide PIA which may happen under the new legislation.

Interesting article on multiple employer bargaining here:

The world is shifting to multi-employer bargaining. Will Australia fail to follow? - ABC News

I guess what my question is, is what does this look like? Does it happen when each EBA is up? Ie. when the Network A320/JQ 320 etc is next up, does the FWC (or whoever enforces this new legislation) ensure (and how) that the new agreement is under the same conditions/pay rate as mainline? What's the benchmark? Assuming it's not just unskilled labour as old mate Gina and all her friends were all against it too. I have read enough about it, but I'd like to know how you think it'll be implemented?

It's tricky to say how it will pan out in the airline industry. It's not a law that requires all airlines to pay the same rates to their staff for flying similar sized aircraft compared to the highest paid pilots in the country (in this case mainline). All it allows for is for a union representing two different employee groups both with open EAs to bargain together and perhaps take PIA together. They can demand their lower paid pilots to be pay matched with higher paid workers, but the company doesn't have to agree and if it ends up in front of the FWC they don't have to agree to union claims. However different employee groups can use the new provisions to bargain together and potentially take PIA together which will improve their bargaining position. Almost all industry groups and major employers are against the legislation, irrelevant as it's law now.

Interesting Dre…does that mean there’s also potential for QF SH and LH to bargain together if they both have open EAs?

Define soon.

You let me know when they order 1:1 A321XLR against the retiring 738. Or, show me evidence that with less frames they'll be utilised to an amount where the hours flown will be the same / SH pilot numbers don't decrease.

The fact is the subsidiaries are taking mainline flying whether you like it or not.

Network A320 out west seats the same amount as a 737. It's doing a lot of traditional mainline RPT routes. Rumoured to soon be doing Perth-Bali. And they won't be the first QantasLink outfit to be doing international jet routes. That's already started.

Edited, my bad, apologies

I work for the same company as you.

This is accurate. If you haven’t seen already the A220s are coming with ‘Qantas’ written on the side not ‘QantasLink’

At the moment the plan is the oldest 737s are replaced by the first 321X, and it looks as if they'll go to 24 years. So the next 321X order will only arrive post 2027, as the 738 fleet isn't all that old. The latest is only 9 years old, and they'll only confirm the replacements when needed.

PER-DPS hasn't been a mainline route ever (well at least this century). QL (Alliance) is only doing DRW-DPS, DRW-SIN has apparently been canned. So no QL taking QF international flying, and I wouldn't like to see the reliability of those admittedly old A320s on international routes. May also have EDTO issues.....

At the end of the day I think supply and demand will limit the possibility of the various QL entities expanding to the point where they become the new mainline. What we do know is, even accounting for retirements and the pilots required for the 12x A350s, that mainline will have a few hundred pilots more than they have now in 4 years time. What this is for is still unknown, but the number of excess crew being hired is enough to crew about 30 more SH or 10 LH aircraft, beyond what exists now.

Potentially. But then management could argue that the work performed by LH and SH is fundamentally different enough they shouldn't be on a single EA. It's still pretty much an unknown how this will play in the long term.

Maybe. I hope you're right but I'll maintain my pessimistic outlook.

Seniority is back over 2700 as it was pre covid when they were expecting the last 3 787s to arrive.
The difference is -2 a380s and -2 a330s and minus whatever 747s we had a few years ago.

Sure, the a321XLR will drive training/recruitment as a lot will be in the training system, as will the a350 as that's in addition to what LH has now. But that training aside, and 12x a350s aside, the remainder of it is just to fill the large retirements.

After management at the top change hands later this year, maybe by this time 2024 we will know what's the longer term goal, especially with more potential a321s or a330 replacements. I'm not holding my breath. It will be a trickle of planes and FlightRadar24 will continue to show nothing but foreign carriers dominating the skies in and out of Australia.

11 787s are all that have arrived to mainline over... what, 15 years? 3 more to come. Wow. Big numbers.

Not one plane has come to mainline that AJ has ordered. And until only a few months ago - not one was ordered under him either.

My question, and maybe you can answer it for me as I actually don't know - how many 747s did we retire since... say 2010? How many 767s did we retire in the last 15 years?

Interesting sentiment re the 320’s. Aren’t about 8 of them from Jetstar Asia that used to fly those same aircraft on SIN PER SIN?

Taking the info out there on expected retirements at 65, and adding a percentage above for those who leave medically or to other employment before 65, it still leaves about 300 new recruits above what will be needed for the initial A350 and A321X intro through to 2027. Retirement numbers only go back to a high level in 2026, VR cleared them out for the first half of this decade

Hearing the latest 787 courses are being moved day 1 to the 380 on the new B Scale, stopping the current SO’s from moving across and getting the old $$.
surely that’s going to piss off a few…

anyone in the know? Is 380 only SYD base?
Wonder if MEL/PER 787 guys/gals are being forced to move to SYD if this is the case.

The issue is currently before the fair work commission, mainly around the issue of bypass pay for those who could have attained those spots based off their seniority.

Qantas claims they cannot release current SO’s due to current operational requirements but at the same time force those pilots to take leave due to a surplus.

Turns out you can have your cake and eat it too!

The disregard for employees current and future is palpable - What an absolute DISGRACE :\

Future Course Dates
 

Has anyone heard of any course dates starting July onwards? I Interviewed and got my yes last July but no news yet sadly.

I’m sorry I haven’t heard of any courses assigned yet beyond the June one.

I also interview in July last year. If you’d like to keep in touch, send me a message.

cheers.