QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages
Why would that be surprising? If a 380 Captain is 57 then he can't access his super until he is 59.
So in two years time when the international flying starts getting sorted out he can resume his career on either the 787 or 330 if the 380's are not flying anymore.
Remember the first rule of dealing with an emergency, sit on your hands.
Anyway, that some chose to 'bat-on' didn't surprise me, the number that did surprised me but perhaps not others including you. So be it…...
Analysing those numbers it looks like most of the 747 Captains took the package, and about half the FOs (assuming the remainder of package takers were FOs).
About half of 380 Captains too, and about a third of FOs. That would mean that if the fleet is going to return by anything more than half then training slots will happen, and maybe even some promotions.
A quarter of 330 Captains and about a sixth of 787 Captains. If these fleets come back to full strength in a year or two, and if the extra 3 787s arrive, then there'll be some command slots required to fill them.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel suggesting room for promotional opportunities and command opportunities with those numbers when international flying returns.
Still a lot of the other ranks remaining, especially 4 engined second officers. A lack of front seat time will affect their opportunities for advancement.
About half of 380 Captains too, and about a third of FOs. That would mean that if the fleet is going to return by anything more than half then training slots will happen, and maybe even some promotions.
A quarter of 330 Captains and about a sixth of 787 Captains. If these fleets come back to full strength in a year or two, and if the extra 3 787s arrive, then there'll be some command slots required to fill them.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel suggesting room for promotional opportunities and command opportunities with those numbers when international flying returns.
Still a lot of the other ranks remaining, especially 4 engined second officers. A lack of front seat time will affect their opportunities for advancement.
Analysing those numbers it looks like most of the 747 Captains took the package, and about half the FOs (assuming the remainder of package takers were FOs).
About half of 380 Captains too, and about a third of FOs. That would mean that if the fleet is going to return by anything more than half then training slots will happen, and maybe even some promotions.
A quarter of 330 Captains and about a sixth of 787 Captains. If these fleets come back to full strength in a year or two, and if the extra 3 787s arrive, then there'll be some command slots required to fill them.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel suggesting room for promotional opportunities and command opportunities with those numbers when international flying returns.
Still a lot of the other ranks remaining, especially 4 engined second officers. A lack of front seat time will affect their opportunities for advancement.
About half of 380 Captains too, and about a third of FOs. That would mean that if the fleet is going to return by anything more than half then training slots will happen, and maybe even some promotions.
A quarter of 330 Captains and about a sixth of 787 Captains. If these fleets come back to full strength in a year or two, and if the extra 3 787s arrive, then there'll be some command slots required to fill them.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel suggesting room for promotional opportunities and command opportunities with those numbers when international flying returns.
Still a lot of the other ranks remaining, especially 4 engined second officers. A lack of front seat time will affect their opportunities for advancement.
Couldn't possibly happen!
Could it?
Nunc est bibendum
My guess is that there are about 40 A380 captains remaining. With 6-7 jets returning there is a shortfall on that fleet of 25+ Captains. If all 12 come back there is a shortfall closer to 80! I wonder how junior it will go? Who will bid to a fleet that will be first to stop flying again in the next pandemic or other industry issue ‘beyond the control’ of the company, that still has pure seniority (so if you go now you’re likely staying junior), and that is likely to be gone anyway somewhere close to the end of the decade? Someone will no doubt but as I said, perhaps it will go junior!
787 was crewed for roughly 12 1/2 aeroplanes. They’re now stocked for probably 10. They could probably crew 12 if they all surged to 175 hours. We currently have 11 jets with a couple in Seattle ready to go. There are roughly 10 747 Captains left- about one aeroplane’s worth. This would seem to be their natural home and the place where the flying is likely to come back the quickest?
A330 is OK until we get to beyond about 75% of pre Covid flying... perhaps a bit less than that in pure stick hours if the alleged plans for that fleet coming out of Covid come true. Surge to 180 hours and they can likely cover 75% if it does start going ‘longer haul’ than currently, or 85% on the current network.
Having now pulled the trigger on VR the one surety in all of this is that we’ll be short of crew and training flat out when the time finally does come. The only question is whether that is mid next year, the year after, or the year after that. If we get the training wave correct it’ll be the first time I’ve seen it in 25+ years.
787 was crewed for roughly 12 1/2 aeroplanes. They’re now stocked for probably 10. They could probably crew 12 if they all surged to 175 hours. We currently have 11 jets with a couple in Seattle ready to go. There are roughly 10 747 Captains left- about one aeroplane’s worth. This would seem to be their natural home and the place where the flying is likely to come back the quickest?
A330 is OK until we get to beyond about 75% of pre Covid flying... perhaps a bit less than that in pure stick hours if the alleged plans for that fleet coming out of Covid come true. Surge to 180 hours and they can likely cover 75% if it does start going ‘longer haul’ than currently, or 85% on the current network.
Having now pulled the trigger on VR the one surety in all of this is that we’ll be short of crew and training flat out when the time finally does come. The only question is whether that is mid next year, the year after, or the year after that. If we get the training wave correct it’ll be the first time I’ve seen it in 25+ years.
I would take your numbers a bit further Keg. I would suggest that in the medium term QF will want more 787’s because the 787 will do previous A380 sectors until demand comes back.
The A330 will come back to its original flying plus some of the previous shorter 787 work.
These two aircraft will cover the previous four aircraft network.
When.....is the question?
The A330 will come back to its original flying plus some of the previous shorter 787 work.
These two aircraft will cover the previous four aircraft network.
When.....is the question?
The A380 as a type, isn’t needed. It might return if operating it would be a cheaper option then obtaining more A330/B787s or possibly B777s.
I would be looking a getting onto another fleet ASAP, long haul might be a nice lifestyle for some, especially S/O but getting some hands on multi sector days is what counts when it comes to employability. Going forward B737 pilots will probably have the best job security and B787 pilots the best routes.
I would be looking a getting onto another fleet ASAP, long haul might be a nice lifestyle for some, especially S/O but getting some hands on multi sector days is what counts when it comes to employability. Going forward B737 pilots will probably have the best job security and B787 pilots the best routes.
Nunc est bibendum
If a decision is made to not bring back the A380s then additional airframes are going to be needed. There simply isn’t enough airframes in the airline to cover the route structure once we start to move beyond ‘Covid recovery’. The most logical replacement is going to be the A350. There is no freaking way Qantas is going down the 777 route once they’ve locked in the A350 for SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK. There is no doubt that the A350 is still in forward plans for Qantas.
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Is there any truth to this idle speculation and gossip?
Perth to Capetown would be a good route for the A332's when international travel rebounds sufficiently.
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AJ won’t authorise additional spending in paper clips because of cash burn at the moment. He will not buy a new aircraft in the short term. He will squeeze everything out of the 787 and 330.
Nunc est bibendum
I’ve heard those two routes along the grape vine. There are some others being looked at also. The increased GW is also rumoured.
As Wingspar alludes to, many of the A330 routes being considered I suspect are only for a short(ish) period of time- perhaps under a year- until demand returns and either more 787s come on board, the A380s get going again, or A350s turn up and change the plans again. I wouldn’t expect the long term plan would be for the A332 to operate BNE-LAX-BNE year after year.
If a decision is made to not bring back the A380s then additional airframes are going to be needed. There simply isn’t enough airframes in the airline to cover the route structure once we start to move beyond ‘Covid recovery’. The most logical replacement is going to be the A350. There is no freaking way Qantas is going down the 777 route once they’ve locked in the A350 for SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK. There is no doubt that the A350 is still in forward plans for Qantas.
At best 6 A380s come back, but given the high maintenance costs, the global trend will be to retire them just like Air France, Lufthansa and Singapore. Fuel and maintenance are the biggest costs for airlines and the 380 suffers from those. Great for gulf airlines but that’s it.
Joyce has said at the earliest late 2023 the A380 MAY return, however it’s extremely unlikely. COVID gives them the cover to get rid of what they don’t want.
For a long time you’d said Qantas would have 50 787s. Lots of people did so it’s not a dig just the factual data.
Qantas debt levels are very high now. At best you’ll see a one for one replacement of the A380 with the A350 which was always the plan. But I’d suggest the limited capital raised will go to Jetstar and domestic replacements. Same as it ever was.
But that’s 2024- 2025 most likely or international and bottom of the priority list. QF will want to move 380 crews to 350. CASA won’t be happy having flight crew 3-4 years without both meaningful line and simulator experience. A simulator take off and landing every 90 days won’t cut it with CASA I suspect.
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Your assumption is that international flying returns to the same levels as pre Covid. I’d suggest that’s a flawed assumption. Qantas identified the 188 VR and 50 ER as a long term surplus issue. The number was higher but the budget only allowed for those. Qantas were so desperate for cash they sold bar carts and blankets, so looking after 60 plus year old Captains was not out of compassion.
At best 6 A380s come back, but given the high maintenance costs, the global trend will be to retire them just like Air France, Lufthansa and Singapore. Fuel and maintenance are the biggest costs for airlines and the 380 suffers from those. Great for gulf airlines but that’s it.
Joyce has said at the earliest late 2023 the A380 MAY return, however it’s extremely unlikely. COVID gives them the cover to get rid of what they don’t want.
For a long time you’d said Qantas would have 50 787s. Lots of people did so it’s not a dig just the factual data.
Qantas debt levels are very high now. At best you’ll see a one for one replacement of the A380 with the A350 which was always the plan. But I’d suggest the limited capital raised will go to Jetstar and domestic replacements. Same as it ever was.
But that’s 2024- 2025 most likely or international and bottom of the priority list. QF will want to move 380 crews to 350. CASA won’t be happy having flight crew 3-4 years without both meaningful line and simulator experience. A simulator take off and landing every 90 days won’t cut it with CASA I suspect.
At best 6 A380s come back, but given the high maintenance costs, the global trend will be to retire them just like Air France, Lufthansa and Singapore. Fuel and maintenance are the biggest costs for airlines and the 380 suffers from those. Great for gulf airlines but that’s it.
Joyce has said at the earliest late 2023 the A380 MAY return, however it’s extremely unlikely. COVID gives them the cover to get rid of what they don’t want.
For a long time you’d said Qantas would have 50 787s. Lots of people did so it’s not a dig just the factual data.
Qantas debt levels are very high now. At best you’ll see a one for one replacement of the A380 with the A350 which was always the plan. But I’d suggest the limited capital raised will go to Jetstar and domestic replacements. Same as it ever was.
But that’s 2024- 2025 most likely or international and bottom of the priority list. QF will want to move 380 crews to 350. CASA won’t be happy having flight crew 3-4 years without both meaningful line and simulator experience. A simulator take off and landing every 90 days won’t cut it with CASA I suspect.
There isn’t money to buy new airplanes for many many years. Billions spent buying back shares at the top of the market made this a certainty. Already billions in loans off the 787 fleet just to avoid being insolvent.
A330 and 787 will be flogged if required. I don’t think they will even be flogged. Will be a limited travel bubble even with a vaccine. Probably enough hulls for at least another 5 years.
There Will not be many retirements for a while either. The VR and ER has flushed out the majority that were thinking of going in the next 5 years anyway.
Not many people have realised this.
Nunc est bibendum
Perhaps we won’t get 50 787s anymore with the A350 coming down range and being slightly bigger and with slightly longer legs than the 787. We still need to replace international A330s eventually and the 787 or 350 will be the machine to do that. A 787 with a config of 290-300 pax (instead of the set up designed specifically for those ULH missions similar to PER-LHR) is still likely the natural successor to the A330 on SE Asian routes.
Really? Most people I’ve spoken to are all too aware that their seniority will take a massive jump next year and then will barely move for the next five years after that.
As has been said previously the VR/ER numbers seemed to have taken care of the surplus of pilots in the Capt rank. So much so it’s probable that some FOs will be promoted to fill the gap when international flying returns. It’s the SOs who may be in a worrisome situation as there isn’t much of a need for new FOs for a long time.
At the end of the day nobody knows what the future holds. I specifically remember the CFO, in reference to future demand, stating that in a recent Townhall.
The 2023 timeline for the A380 is a very rough guesstimate. Nobody expects all twelve A380’s coming back on line on July 1st, 2023. What makes that date so special?
AJ had to come up with a plan. He knew that the demand for the A380 would not be there for a while. So he picked a date that they could base a recovery plan on. They picked that date so they could factor in the costs associated with that fleet not flying for a defined period. If the factors change, which they will, so too does the recovery plan.
They honestly don’t know what’s happening even next week! How can they plan anything.
What we do know is that they have decided to store the aircraft. We also know that if they bring them back after January they won’t have the crew to fly them!
The 2023 timeline for the A380 is a very rough guesstimate. Nobody expects all twelve A380’s coming back on line on July 1st, 2023. What makes that date so special?
AJ had to come up with a plan. He knew that the demand for the A380 would not be there for a while. So he picked a date that they could base a recovery plan on. They picked that date so they could factor in the costs associated with that fleet not flying for a defined period. If the factors change, which they will, so too does the recovery plan.
They honestly don’t know what’s happening even next week! How can they plan anything.
What we do know is that they have decided to store the aircraft. We also know that if they bring them back after January they won’t have the crew to fly them!
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Do you have any supporting evidence for the claim that the wanted number of redundancies was higher? I doubt it. If management were so desperate for cash they would’ve not offered any VR at all and kept all those surplus pilots on stand down indefinitely.
As has been said previously the VR/ER numbers seemed to have taken care of the surplus of pilots in the Capt rank. So much so it’s probable that some FOs will be promoted to fill the gap when international flying returns. It’s the SOs who may be in a worrisome situation as there isn’t much of a need for new FOs for a long time.
As has been said previously the VR/ER numbers seemed to have taken care of the surplus of pilots in the Capt rank. So much so it’s probable that some FOs will be promoted to fill the gap when international flying returns. It’s the SOs who may be in a worrisome situation as there isn’t much of a need for new FOs for a long time.
I did hear this also. It was a webinar a while ago. Think it was Doug Alley saying the VR and ER would only address the surplus for the next financial year but there would be a surplus in the following years. But the numbers of VR and ER were the maximum Qantas could allocate but still didn’t address the surplus. The 250 of LWOP helps but he said still doesn’t address long term surplus.
Also heard it on an AIPA webinar from one of the executives that was a Captain. Can’t recall the name.