If a decision is made to not bring back the A380s then additional airframes are going to be needed. There simply isn’t enough airframes in the airline to cover the route structure once we start to move beyond ‘Covid recovery’. The most logical replacement is going to be the A350. There is no freaking way Qantas is going down the 777 route once they’ve locked in the A350 for SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK. There is no doubt that the A350 is still in forward plans for Qantas.
Your assumption is that international flying returns to the same levels as pre Covid. I’d suggest that’s a flawed assumption. Qantas identified the 188 VR and 50 ER as a long term surplus issue. The number was higher but the budget only allowed for those. Qantas were so desperate for cash they sold bar carts and blankets, so looking after 60 plus year old Captains was not out of compassion.
At best 6 A380s come back, but given the high maintenance costs, the global trend will be to retire them just like Air France, Lufthansa and Singapore. Fuel and maintenance are the biggest costs for airlines and the 380 suffers from those. Great for gulf airlines but that’s it.
Joyce has said at the earliest late 2023 the A380 MAY return, however it’s extremely unlikely. COVID gives them the cover to get rid of what they don’t want.
For a long time you’d said Qantas would have 50 787s. Lots of people did so it’s not a dig just the factual data.
Qantas debt levels are very high now. At best you’ll see a one for one replacement of the A380 with the A350 which was always the plan. But I’d suggest the limited capital raised will go to Jetstar and domestic replacements. Same as it ever was.
But that’s 2024- 2025 most likely or international and bottom of the priority list. QF will want to move 380 crews to 350. CASA won’t be happy having flight crew 3-4 years without both meaningful line and simulator experience. A simulator take off and landing every 90 days won’t cut it with CASA I suspect.