My guess is that there are about 40 A380 captains remaining. With 6-7 jets returning there is a shortfall on that fleet of 25+ Captains. If all 12 come back there is a shortfall closer to 80! I wonder how junior it will go? Who will bid to a fleet that will be first to stop flying again in the next pandemic or other industry issue ‘beyond the control’ of the company, that still has pure seniority (so if you go now you’re likely staying junior), and that is likely to be gone anyway somewhere close to the end of the decade? Someone will no doubt but as I said, perhaps it will go junior!
787 was crewed for roughly 12 1/2 aeroplanes. They’re now stocked for probably 10. They could probably crew 12 if they all surged to 175 hours. We currently have 11 jets with a couple in Seattle ready to go. There are roughly 10 747 Captains left- about one aeroplane’s worth. This would seem to be their natural home and the place where the flying is likely to come back the quickest?
A330 is OK until we get to beyond about 75% of pre Covid flying... perhaps a bit less than that in pure stick hours if the alleged plans for that fleet coming out of Covid come true. Surge to 180 hours and they can likely cover 75% if it does start going ‘longer haul’ than currently, or 85% on the current network.
Originally Posted by
Wingspar
...you’re not suggesting that if the QF plan changes then they will be short? That a situation might develop that QF doesn’t have the pilot numbers to cover the number of hulls they presently store and re activate them?
Couldn't possibly happen!
Could it?
Having now pulled the trigger on VR the one surety in all of this is that we’ll be short of crew and training flat out when the time finally does come. The only question is whether that is mid next year, the year after, or the year after that. If we get the training wave correct it’ll be the first time I’ve seen it in 25+ years.