All borders to reopen.

[43Inches]

How much sorrow are you willing to impose on your subjects? How many grief-stricken families must bury parents and children without ceremony, like backyard pets? How many tears will soften your stony, self-righteous hearts?

Actually you can attend funerals and weddings via the internet now, might not be ideal but like everything else doing well you can do it therefore not missing any ceremony.

Whether born of stupidity or callousness, the effect of our current aimless course is the same. State against state, city against country, suburb against suburb, office worker against tradesman, old against young, vaccinated against unvaccinated: it is a heartless, divisive and dehumanising policy. And worse, it doesn’t work.

So lockdown pits young against old, but the statement earlier of ;

Perhaps we should bite the bullet and say 5000 predominantly old people taken prematurely is a sad but tolerable price to pay for the restoration of our freedoms and the repair of our society

Those oldies will just accept the young'ns telling them to move on and be turned into biscuits.

Sorry but this guy has written complete BS.

[common cents]

From The Lancet April 2021

Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.
ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.
ARR is also used to derive an estimate of vaccine effectiveness, which is the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one more case of COVID-19 as 1/ARR. NNVs bring a different perspective: 81 for the Moderna–NIH, 78 for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 108 for the Gamaleya, 84 for the J&J, and 119 for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.

So you may assume worst case that all of Australia gets infected. Roughly 26 million cases. If we all in the words of minister Hazardous “go for gold and vaccinate baby” that means that only 25781512 of us will be infected. Based on NNV of 119 for Pfizer.
Awesome!

But it would end lockdowns.
IFR of Covid calculated at a mean of 0.23% across all ages and sex. Refer to below.

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data
John P A Ioannidis
a Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road, Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.
Correspondence to John P A Ioannidis (email: [email protected]).
(Submitted: 13 May 2020 – Revised version received: 13 September 2020 – Accepted: 15 September 2020 – Published online: 14 October 2020)
Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)

Probably comparable to the flu in younger populations. Certainly south of 0.23%.
So ARR of severe cases and death was NOT an end point In Pfizer clinical trial data so it was not reported.
CDC recently reported on 9000 breakthrough cases with 835 hospitalisations and 130 deaths. Reported by CDC.
Israel recently reported on 1692 breakthrough cases with hospitalisation of 596 and 364 deaths. Reported by Israeli Health Ministry.
How effective are these vaccines at reducing severe cases and death? You do the numbers.
I refuse to draw any conclusions from media reports and YouTube doctors.
No concrete peer reviewed data yet but real world data not painting a good picture.

For what it’s worth I am waiting on my 2nd Pfizer jab so no attacks please.

Making statements like 43 inches “go get vaccinated and get on with it” are misguided.
The government wants a way out of lockdowns. So they are pushing experimental vaccines because that’s what everyone else is doing.
For those of you who do not want to participate in this global vaccine experiment I say you are entitled to your freedom to choose. I for one will not hold it against you.
No one has the right to push an idea or an ideology on anybody.
Especially when you consider that the benefits of vaccine whilst real are probably grossly over exaggerated.

[Keg]

Originally Posted by 43Inches

Actually you can attend funerals and weddings via the internet now, might not be ideal but like everything else doing well you can do it therefore not missing any ceremony.

Seriously? Have you farewelled anyone significant to you in the last 18 months? Watching on from home and then not being able to commemorate their memory together with others? It’s not the same. Not even close. The lowest point for me in this entire crap shoot of the last 18 months was watching the funeral of this hugely significant mentor of mine online and separated from my friends.

Not only did I miss the funeral, but the commemoration and gathering we had planned for 12 months on of his death (because we couldn’t gather together 12 months ago) has also been cancelled due to lock downs.

So excuse me if I call ‘bull sh!t’ on that sentiment 43Inches. It’s not an acceptable alternative. We all acknowledged the short term need. It should not become the default long term solution.

[Global Aviator]

Originally Posted by Blackout

If you think Vaccinations are the answer, just look around you. Countries like the U.S with a high population vaccinated, are still trying to mandate draconian laws!!!

Thats the US. Imagine what the Fu.kers gonna do here!!!!!!!!

Nope you are incorrect, I don’t see the USA trying to mandate anything draconian. Mandating wearing of masks if not vaccinated in many states - yep. Closing domestic borders - nope, allowing residents and oh Visa holders to enter - yep, allowing a flood of immigrants from Mexico - yep, life going on pretty much as normal despite Delta singing - yep.

Also the big push is vaccination, get vaccinated coming from both sides of the fence, whoops bad terminology as .............

Oh and my source, me I’m currently in the USA

[Global Aviator]

Originally Posted by Keg

Seriously? Have you farewelled anyone significant to you in the last 18 months? Watching on from home and then not being able to commemorate their memory together with others? It’s not the same. Not even close. The lowest point for me in this entire crap shoot of the last 18 months was watching the funeral of this hugely significant mentor of mine online and separated from my friends.

Not only did I miss the funeral, but the commemoration and gathering we had planned for 12 months on of his death (because we couldn’t gather together 12 months ago) has also been cancelled due to lock downs.

So excuse me if I call ‘bull sh!t’ on that sentiment 43Inches. It’s not an acceptable alternative. We all acknowledged the short term need. It should not become the default long term solution.

Very well said. Then there is the hypocrisy of certain numbers at certain events, yet personal events get the harsh treatment. It simply is not right.

Ok I didn’t read the article.

But yes the only way to move forward is for mass vaccinations, the rest of the first world is proving this by the opening of countries. Yet Straya is still hamstrung domestically?????

Yes the government and the media are equally to blame. Such a joke and so sad. I feel for everyone that has been effected, oh and it hasn’t stopped. Just when Qantas, Virgin and yes even Rex were really going for it domestically... Bang! Oh so fickle the government. The problem is it is 7 governments (or countries in one) that will never agree.

Stop the blame game, work as one.

You are, we are, all Australian!

[machtuk]

Thanks for posting that 'pithblot', a great summarybut it's lost on a certain few who simply are dedicating their lives to debunk anyone's eless opinion/beliefs, something you aren't apparently allowed to have in their sad eyes -(

[43Inches]

Seriously? Have you farewelled anyone significant to you in the last 18 months? Watching on from home and then not being able to commemorate their memory together with others? It’s not the same. Not even close. The lowest point for me in this entire crap shoot of the last 18 months was watching the funeral of this hugely significant mentor of mine online and separated from my friends.

Last week actually, how I know you can do it online. I will add though we all mourn differently so it suffices for me to watch a service and reflect in my own way.

Thanks for posting that 'pithblot', a great summarybut it's lost on a certain few who simply are dedicating their lives to debunk anyone's eless opinion/beliefs, something you aren't apparently allowed to have in their sad eyes -(

You can have an opinion, however when you make it public you are influencing other people. And affecting public debate, so you better have your shit in order and thick skin as you will get judged. If you are not critical of what you read and blindly follow others statements without questioning, then good for you, not my style.

Making statements like 43 inches “go get vaccinated and get on with it” are misguided.
The government wants a way out of lockdowns. So they are pushing experimental vaccines because that’s what everyone else is doing.
For those of you who do not want to participate in this global vaccine experiment I say you are entitled to your freedom to choose. I for one will not hold it against you.
No one has the right to push an idea or an ideology on anybody.
Especially when you consider that the benefits of vaccine whilst real are probably grossly over exaggerated.

You can choose to not vaccinate as I've said before that's your choice, my choice is to ask people to get vacinated for their own good as all science says thats in your interest. If you want to push your anti vax on people, go for it, but show some actual evidence of why other than crackpot science and misunderstood stats with no medical understanding. Saying I'm misguided, well offer some real proof not that tripe you posted, we have been through that covid IS killing 2.5% of those infected in Australia, so don't dig up some rubbish stats that are far from the mark. All you have to do is divide those dead vs those infected. Where your source gets .23% from is monkey science.

Here's the hard stats, covid season 950 odd deaths, vs 36,000 infections that's 2.6% death rate and since the covid is still active the death rate is lagging indicator vs infections. The US with much larger infection rate and deaths is about the same mortality rate. So far the flu over the same period has killed 36 people from 22,000 diagnosed cases with probably 10 times that actual cases of mild flu that never get diagnosed. Taking diagnosed cases alone leaves a death rate of 0.01%. Ok you can believe some guy reporting stats that are pulled from their arse or you can just see the stats from readily available sources.

[43Inches]

Also go get vaccinated, and get on with it.

Then we can leave lockdown. I can go back to work and leave you guys to go back to bickering about CASA and whatever.

[common cents]

43 Inches
You have once again demonstrated that you do not understand facts.
No point showing me the CFR that’s a snapshot of the top of the pyramid.
The whole picture is revealed when you know the IFR.
The guy from Stanford knows what he is talking about. You clearly don’t.
But don’t let your misguided ignorance get in the way. Keep posting have at it.

[Anti Skid On]

I feel like I have just walked into a QAnon group.

Nobody seems to have mentioned long covid and how it has screwed people. Do you really think Australia would be better if they had followed, say, the UK strategy? Looking from across the ditch, yes that place not in lockdown, but with super tight borders, it is very clear that NSW is a complete mess, largely by politicians saying one thing, then allowing people to do something different. Lockdown should be lockdown, no Bunnings trips, no surfing trips to Bondi, etc. You go all in or you forget it; you simply can't do it half hearted

[43Inches]

common cents
43 Inches
You have once again demonstrated that you do not understand facts.
No point showing me the CFR that’s a snapshot of the top of the pyramid.
The whole picture is revealed when you know the IFR.
The guy from Stanford knows what he is talking about. You clearly don’t.
But don’t let your misguided ignorance get in the way. Keep posting have at it.

Actually no, I responded to your tripe you posted, which is copy paste with no explanation as to what you are talking about. Just reading his actual study notes, the levels of seroprevalence was mostly estimated. I severely doubt its accuracy based on what Australia is experiencing, with our testing levels it seems most cases are being caught in the net, therefore IFR and CFR will be very similar.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_....20.265892.pdf

I feel like I have just walked into a QAnon group.

I get the feeling they all got sick of actual facts being presented in another thread and started another one.

[minigundiplomat]

Originally Posted by 43Inches

Actually no, I responded to your tripe you posted, which is copy paste with no explanation as to what you are talking about.



I get the feeling they all got sick of actual facts being presented in another thread and started another one.

Have you considered changing your name to Karen? I bet you’ve already got the haircut and the managers number on speed dial.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by common cents

CDC recently reported on 9000 breakthrough cases with 835 hospitalisations and 130 deaths. Reported by CDC.
Israel recently reported on 1692 breakthrough cases with hospitalisation of 596 and 364 deaths. Reported by Israeli Health Ministry.
How effective are these vaccines at reducing severe cases and death? You do the numbers.
I refuse to draw any conclusions from media reports and YouTube doctors.
No concrete peer reviewed data yet but real world data not painting a good picture.

I don’t know where you go those numbers from but here’s some info about breakthrough cases in the US and Israel:

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting

Why you shouldn't be concerned when more vaccinated people are getting infected than unvaccinated - ABC News

The calculated risk of being hospitalised from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.004%

The calculated risk of dying from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.001%

The current death rate from Covid in Australia is around 2.5%, let’s just say 2%.

So you are 2000 times less likely to die from Covid post vaccination.

I think the real world data is painting a great picture on the effectiveness of vaccines.

[mattyj]

Great posts common cents and pithblot

Us and Them

[43Inches]

That vid mentions Fiji, they are getting smashed by Covid at the moment due to allowing travelers in, was only a matter of time for them playing with fire before it bit hard. Virtually no cases prior to June 2021, now approaching 36,000 with deaths accelerating. Hopefully it stays centered in Suva and does not get out to the Islands and villages The hospitals there are not equipped for this battle at all.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...d-19/100312726

Fiji has the highest number of infections per capita in the world, but the government has refused to institute a lockdown, saying it would "kill jobs and could kill the country's future".

Interesting to note that 25-30,000 of the cases are from Central District which is a maximum of about 200,000 population. That means case rate is approaching 15% of the population and still rising rapidly, if the undetected seroprevelance rate was as high as indicated by the earlier mentioned study the whole area should be infected by now.

[common cents]

[QUOTE=dr dre;11091106]I don’t know where you go those numbers from but here’s some info about breakthrough cases in the US and Israel:

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting

Why you shouldn't be concerned when more vaccinated people are getting infected than unvaccinated - ABC News

The calculated risk of being hospitalised from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.004%

The calculated risk of dying from a breakthrough case after vaccination? 0.001

From your link
CNN broke down the CDC's statistics which included 6,587 breakthrough cases as of July 26. Dividing these by the vaccinated population — 163 million at the time — the broadcaster concluded that less than 0.004 per cent of fully vaccinated people experienced a breakthrough case that led to hospitalisation, with less than 0.001 per cent dying from COVID-19.

You’re kidding me right?
CNN broadcaster data.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by common cents

You’re kidding me right?
CNN broadcaster data.

Nope, not kidding you at all.

6587 divided by 163,000,000 is 0.004%.

[43Inches]

The key part of that CDC report on breakthroughs,

Vaccine breakthrough cases occur in only a small percentage of vaccinated people. To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in the case demographics or vaccine characteristics among people with reported vaccine breakthrough infections.

So this is nothing unexpected or out of the ordinary. However it comes from a dataset that is as below;

National surveillance relies on passive and voluntary reporting, and data might not be complete or representative.

[common cents]

Originally Posted by dr dre

Nope, not kidding you at all.

6587 divided by 163,000,000 is 0.004%.

Thanks for the maths lesson.
Ok. You go with CNN and presumably other media outlets for your factual data.
I’ll refer to the more traditional sources.
Just curious was that peer reviewed by the ABC ? Or was it Fox News?

[dr dre]

Sorry common cents, I’m missing your point.

Are you saying that the breakthrough infections are far higher, or the rate of infections are far higher than the minuscule figures provided in the links I posted?

If so could you post the sources where you got your information?

EDIT:

If you’re referring to your post #7020 and the excerpt from the Lancet where you claim the absolute vaccine reduction risk (ARR) is around 0.84-% and therefore 25.78 million Australians will be infected despite being vaccinated?

Then you’ve totally, totally taken that study the wrong way and blown those numbers out of proportion, again, here’s a debunking of your point:

Fact Check-Why Relative Risk Reduction, not Absolute Risk Reduction, is most often used in calculating vaccine efficacy