All borders to reopen.
Lockdown stringency index in OECD countries:
NZ 22.2, so despite zero Covid for a long time, still not completely free.
UK 62.5
Australia 74.5, only Germany and Chile have higher ratings.
Still happy with the way this is being handled?
NZ 22.2, so despite zero Covid for a long time, still not completely free.
UK 62.5
Australia 74.5, only Germany and Chile have higher ratings.
Still happy with the way this is being handled?
short flights long nights
Join Date: Feb 2009
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We may be mostly done by end of the year yet.
Nunc est bibendum
Join Date: Sep 2003
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The following research from the Burnet Institute is pretty sobering reading.
https://burnet.edu.au/news/1450_thou...odelling_shows
Even with vaccine coverage at a highly unlikely 95%, in Victoria
There are, of course, certain underlying assumptions to the modelling regarding efficacy and variant transmissibility, which seem quite reasonable.
In other words, without continued restrictions, based on people's stated willingness to vaccinate, we're looking at 5000 deaths a year in Victoria alone. Such an outcome would clearly be unacceptable in the current climate. Australia has boxed itself in to a corner. In the US which had 4000 deaths a day, the current state of play of 400ish a day is seen as a triumph. In Australia, 10 a day would be seen as disastrous. I can't see a way out of this, frankly, that would be acceptable to our politicians and the broader public, the bulk of whom don't seem to care if we shut the nation off for ever.
https://burnet.edu.au/news/1450_thou...odelling_shows
We found that if the virus enters the community when 60 per cent vaccine coverage has been reached and is left unchecked, we could see 4,885 deaths in Victoria within a year if no public health responses are introduced,” Dr Scott said.
the number of deaths reduces to 1346.
In other words, without continued restrictions, based on people's stated willingness to vaccinate, we're looking at 5000 deaths a year in Victoria alone. Such an outcome would clearly be unacceptable in the current climate. Australia has boxed itself in to a corner. In the US which had 4000 deaths a day, the current state of play of 400ish a day is seen as a triumph. In Australia, 10 a day would be seen as disastrous. I can't see a way out of this, frankly, that would be acceptable to our politicians and the broader public, the bulk of whom don't seem to care if we shut the nation off for ever.
The only thing that's sobering is people continuing to swallow this crap and not seeing the repeating pattern that they continue to use whatever modelling they want to justify escalating levels of control.
Australia has boxed itself in to a corner. In the US which had 4000 deaths a day, the current state of play of 400ish a day is seen as a triumph. In Australia, 10 a day would be seen as disastrous. I can't see a way out of this, frankly, that would be acceptable to our politicians and the broader public, the bulk of whom don't seem to care if we shut the nation off for ever.
Completely insane.
Last edited by ruprecht; 14th Jun 2021 at 02:28.
yeah because all their modelling on impacts so far have been super accurate
The only thing that's sobering is people continuing to swallow this crap and not seeing the repeating pattern that they continue to use whatever modelling they want to justify escalating levels of control.
The only thing that's sobering is people continuing to swallow this crap and not seeing the repeating pattern that they continue to use whatever modelling they want to justify escalating levels of control.
Making the penalties massive is one effective deterrent. Poaching abalone, raiding cray pots, exceeding catch limits etc, the potential fines are huge along with having your boat confiscated. It’s hard to police, so fisheries make the fines so large that the fine itself is enough to limit people committing the offence, even if the risk of getting caught is quite small.
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From the Burnet modelling :
" The scenarios do not currently include any major public health response to gain control of outbreaks. On detection of the first case, the model assumes symptomatic testing increases (isolation of positive cases continues), masks become recommended but not mandatory, and contact tracing continues but only up to 250 diagnoses per day. Hence the projections represent hypothetical near-worst-case scenarios.
Hypothetical
Near Worst Case
Scenarios
" The scenarios do not currently include any major public health response to gain control of outbreaks. On detection of the first case, the model assumes symptomatic testing increases (isolation of positive cases continues), masks become recommended but not mandatory, and contact tracing continues but only up to 250 diagnoses per day. Hence the projections represent hypothetical near-worst-case scenarios.
Hypothetical
Near Worst Case
Scenarios
short flights long nights
I was taking to people at work today. These are people I consider intelligent and sane. The number of them them that told me they would not get the vaccine amazed me. The number that thought this whole thing has been made up, shocked me. These are people I call my friends, and think are on a normal path
What they all said.. if the border was never opened again, they would be very happy.
What they all said.. if the border was never opened again, they would be very happy.
