Mt Erebus Disaster 40th Anniversary
Compressor Stall and Megan fancy themselves as lawyers. Their VMC argument is similar to something a lawyer might put forward to get someone off a drink-drive charge.
Whiteout conditions can exist within the normal VMC minima
...by remaining strictly VMC throughout the sightseeing part of the flight". It is emphasised that the absence of snow showers and visibility in excess of 20 km would not preclude the possibility of whiteout conditions occurring and affecting the crew's judgement of terrain clearance at any altitude.
It's been explained to you repeatedly over the last few years. The best rebuttal you have been able to come up with is that your home made VMC definition is "implicit". This accident obviously a painful thing for you to acknowledge. There are plenty of other failings to talk about; there's no proof that not being VMC is one of them.
Last edited by compressor stall; 11th Dec 2019 at 06:39.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Auckland
Age: 52
Posts: 72
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
More reversing of the truth truck.
Well Ampman, I suggest you go back and read the Chippendale report again.
15 seconds prior to impact, the Copilot says he can see Ross Island.
12 Seconds prior Copilot says clear to turn right, there's no high ground
8 seconds prior to impact the heading knob is pulled out that commands a turn to the right.
It's not time stamped to the second but between 12 seconds and 6 seconds before impact, after some chatter, Collins says "No, negative" and initiates a turn to the left. That is what the aircraft was about to start doing when it hit (it had reversed the roll and was roughly wings level). It is highly likely that this "No - negative" was in response to a decision not to go right, and coincided with commencing a turn to the left.
He did NOT say "No negative" then turn right. The timestamps outline that he started a right turn, then changed his mind. Possibly - although we will never know - the penny might have dropped as to the position and he realised Mt Bird was to the right. but sadly all too late.
Well Ampman, I suggest you go back and read the Chippendale report again.
15 seconds prior to impact, the Copilot says he can see Ross Island.
12 Seconds prior Copilot says clear to turn right, there's no high ground
8 seconds prior to impact the heading knob is pulled out that commands a turn to the right.
It's not time stamped to the second but between 12 seconds and 6 seconds before impact, after some chatter, Collins says "No, negative" and initiates a turn to the left. That is what the aircraft was about to start doing when it hit (it had reversed the roll and was roughly wings level). It is highly likely that this "No - negative" was in response to a decision not to go right, and coincided with commencing a turn to the left.
He did NOT say "No negative" then turn right. The timestamps outline that he started a right turn, then changed his mind. Possibly - although we will never know - the penny might have dropped as to the position and he realised Mt Bird was to the right. but sadly all too late.
That 15 seconds is CAM-?, not CAM-2, so can't be attributed to the Co-Pilot
. It doesn't alter the context of the point though. And the doubt of Ross Island words probably enforces your comments re the decision making of the left turn towards Cape Tennyson rather than my thoughts that he might have worked out that Mt Bird was to the right. We'll never know.What's the angle of bank / rate of turn commanded by the AP on a DC10 at low level?
Last edited by compressor stall; 11th Dec 2019 at 06:24.
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Auckalnd
Posts: 154
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
True, even if you had a panel of experienced pilots in any live cockpit in marginal conditions you would never get complete agreement as to what does and what doesn't constitute VMC. Collins mentioned repeatedly being in VMC, so should he therefore be given the benefit of the doubt? Perhaps. But the cloud layer at 2000' was far from the only one, and I find it very very hard to believe that in the prevailing conditions that Collins did maintain VMC at all times during the descent. What we do know, at the very least was that conditions were far from ideal for either sightseeing or VFR flying of a large commercial jet in general. And as you say, there were plenty of other failings to focus on.
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Paraparaumu
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"at the very least was that conditions were far from ideal for either sightseeing or VFR flying of a large commercial jet in general'
Were they ever VFR?? I would have thought that requires cancellation of an IFR plan. That obviously never happened. The discussion of what is VMC must go back to the Company and CAA requirements for VMC below MSA, a minimum of 20km. Seeing that they never sighted Erebus at any time, or positively identified Mt Byrd, even though they were virtually over the coastline during the first right hand orbit, having 20km vis would appear to be very doubtful. But as already stated that is but one of many failings of the whole operation.
But I would think that as the point of this thread is to question Justice Mahon, and our Prime Minister statement that the crew were "Blameless" , it certainly has shown that the Chippindale report was far more accurate as to the cause.
Were they ever VFR?? I would have thought that requires cancellation of an IFR plan. That obviously never happened. The discussion of what is VMC must go back to the Company and CAA requirements for VMC below MSA, a minimum of 20km. Seeing that they never sighted Erebus at any time, or positively identified Mt Byrd, even though they were virtually over the coastline during the first right hand orbit, having 20km vis would appear to be very doubtful. But as already stated that is but one of many failings of the whole operation.
But I would think that as the point of this thread is to question Justice Mahon, and our Prime Minister statement that the crew were "Blameless" , it certainly has shown that the Chippindale report was far more accurate as to the cause.
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Auckalnd
Posts: 154
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"at the very least was that conditions were far from ideal for either sightseeing or VFR flying of a large commercial jet in general'
Were they ever VFR?? I would have thought that requires cancellation of an IFR plan. That obviously never happened. The discussion of what is VMC must go back to the Company and CAA requirements for VMC below MSA, a minimum of 20km. Seeing that they never sighted Erebus at any time, or positively identified Mt Byrd, even though they were virtually over the coastline during the first right hand orbit, having 20km vis would appear to be very doubtful.
Were they ever VFR?? I would have thought that requires cancellation of an IFR plan. That obviously never happened. The discussion of what is VMC must go back to the Company and CAA requirements for VMC below MSA, a minimum of 20km. Seeing that they never sighted Erebus at any time, or positively identified Mt Byrd, even though they were virtually over the coastline during the first right hand orbit, having 20km vis would appear to be very doubtful.
It's up to us to take this forward if we want to stop this nonsense becoming enshrined as "fact".....
......... which is utterly irrelevant. Mahon made a big deal of this, arguing that Collins was simply too amazing a pilot to be ABLE to make the basic errors of airmanship that were being alleged. Well, history is full of amazing pilots who committed catastrophic errors. Jacob van Zanten wasn't renowned for taking off without clearance until he did so at Tenerife.
None of what went before matters. Doesn't matter how respected he was by his flight attendants, whether he used to be fanatical about his kids life jackets, whether he looked dashing in his pilot's uniform. All that matter is what he actually DID on that day. Was he capable of making simple errors? Absolutely. We all are.
None of what went before matters. Doesn't matter how respected he was by his flight attendants, whether he used to be fanatical about his kids life jackets, whether he looked dashing in his pilot's uniform. All that matter is what he actually DID on that day. Was he capable of making simple errors? Absolutely. We all are.
"All of which is irrelevant" Give me a break... the obfuscation, the lying and the highly suspicious shredding of documents and the alleged removal of pages from a binder (not by Mahon but by a member of the NZ Police who came forward when he became aware). All of it points to covering a-ses and once again, Mahon stated the "single dominant cause". If you think people operate in a vacuum then that might be relevant to NASA but the environmental and organisational factors cannot be simply removed from this event, it's precisely because it was unbelievable that someone like Collins would openly break the rules that it bore closer examination and the events that followed more than amply support the contention that there was more to it than appeared. Other Captains had descended below the minimum, why would that be when they would not dream of doing so in other circumstances??? As for the KLM Captain, he was known to be arrogant and demanding, not something Collins was known for.
Of course the Captain wouldn't have flown into a mountain or chosen to fly the aeroplane the way he did on the day, if he had known where he REALLY was not some fictional position he was briefed on. The error set the scene and then the whiteout and the other factors overlaid made not for a fateful decision, but for what might be (or had been on other flights) a routine decision being made in circumstances the Captain and the Crew were wholly unaware of.
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Auckalnd
Posts: 154
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hearsay. By what actual criteria do you assess someone as 'methodical" and then extrapolate that to the likelihood of making an error?
A colleague of Collins in the "25 year thread" said he "could be a pleasant chap to fly with, but had a hard nosed streak". I've also heard via another ex colleague of Collins (hearsay again) that recently before the crash, a First Officer had filed an incident report against him over a dangerous approach into NAN. He also failed school certificate mathematics. Make of that what you will; but from my high school days I don't remember that exam as one that should be a challenge for someone you'd envisage being in command of a heavy jet.
The point is, posthumously you can paint pretty much any picture you want to paint of someone. But if you believe that Collins possessed some special qualities that made the possibility of him committing major errors of judgement remote; you're an idiot.
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Paraparaumu
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
". Other Captains had descended below the minimum, why would that be when they would not dream of doing so in other circumstances??
Would that have been because they knew where they were, rather than thinking they knew where they were? The only other flight that had the weather, that the crew were well aware of existed ar McMurdo diverted to the Dry Valleys, exactly what this crew were advised to do..
All the activity that reportedly happened at Air New Zealand offices were after the accident had happened, so how could any of that be attributed to the cause of the accident?
Would that have been because they knew where they were, rather than thinking they knew where they were? The only other flight that had the weather, that the crew were well aware of existed ar McMurdo diverted to the Dry Valleys, exactly what this crew were advised to do..
All the activity that reportedly happened at Air New Zealand offices were after the accident had happened, so how could any of that be attributed to the cause of the accident?
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New Zealand
Age: 71
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Apples and Oranges
There really is no comparison between Collins and van Zanten whatsoever. That is drawing a ridiculously long bow. Collins was respected, methodical and organised. He wasn’t somebody who rushed to get the job done and in doing so would omit facts and relevant detail. He was not an egotist nor did he lack humility, well at least not to a degree that is above the average 747 Captain. However, van Zanten was an egotistical, Impatient, self centred arrogant Dutchman, and this has been documented by numerous former co-pilots. Again, comparing the circumstances of the two 747 accidents - Erebus and Tenerife is laughable. What’s next, comparing Collins with Bud Holland of B-52 infamy, or comparing Collins with Jeffrey Dahmer??
And I see the ever arrogant ampan is still speaking derogatory of Justice Mahon and insinuating his mind was clouded by brain tissue deficiency. You just keep degrading your credibility with such foolish digs.
And I see the ever arrogant ampan is still speaking derogatory of Justice Mahon and insinuating his mind was clouded by brain tissue deficiency. You just keep degrading your credibility with such foolish digs.
Collins made gargantuan errors with gargantuan consequences.
Hearsay. By what actual criteria do you assess someone as 'methodical" and then extrapolate that to the likelihood of making an error?
Of course you ask "why" he made the error - to not do so would be imbecilic - but the answer isn't hard. Collins was put into an unfamiliar environment and asked to perform a task (sightseeing) in which he had no experience. When you do that, even good people start making silly mistakes.
Actually, no, the KLM Captain wasn't. And even if he was, does that explain away his catastrophic error?
A colleague of Collins in the "25 year thread" said he "could be a pleasant chap to fly with, but had a hard nosed streak". I've also heard via another ex colleague of Collins (hearsay again) that recently before the crash, a First Officer had filed an incident report against him over a dangerous approach into NAN. He also failed school certificate mathematics. Make of that what you will; but from my high school days I don't remember that exam as one that should be a challenge for someone you'd envisage being in command of a heavy jet.
The point is, posthumously you can paint pretty much any picture you want to paint of someone. But if you believe that Collins possessed some special qualities that made the possibility of him committing major errors of judgement remote; you're an idiot.
Hearsay. By what actual criteria do you assess someone as 'methodical" and then extrapolate that to the likelihood of making an error?
Of course you ask "why" he made the error - to not do so would be imbecilic - but the answer isn't hard. Collins was put into an unfamiliar environment and asked to perform a task (sightseeing) in which he had no experience. When you do that, even good people start making silly mistakes.
Actually, no, the KLM Captain wasn't. And even if he was, does that explain away his catastrophic error?
A colleague of Collins in the "25 year thread" said he "could be a pleasant chap to fly with, but had a hard nosed streak". I've also heard via another ex colleague of Collins (hearsay again) that recently before the crash, a First Officer had filed an incident report against him over a dangerous approach into NAN. He also failed school certificate mathematics. Make of that what you will; but from my high school days I don't remember that exam as one that should be a challenge for someone you'd envisage being in command of a heavy jet.
The point is, posthumously you can paint pretty much any picture you want to paint of someone. But if you believe that Collins possessed some special qualities that made the possibility of him committing major errors of judgement remote; you're an idiot.
Like I said, you cannot view it in a vacuum... yes, Air NZ put him in the unfamiliar environment, Air NZ failed to properly prepare the crew, Air NZ tolerated the low flying then claimed they didn't know, Air NZ shredded the documents, Air NZ gave the inconsistent evidence, Air NZ went against the advice of the USAF in operating the flights in the first place. But you suggest it's Collins' fault... or that seems like what you're saying.
If you can't comprehend basic concepts such as an environment influencing behaviour, then you're an idiot.
If you walk down the passageway in your house with the lights on, then do it with the lights off in a blackout and fall on your face... are you to blame for falling over or is it a product of the environment... or does the power outage play no part???
Once again, I never said he was perfect and if indeed he'd been reported for something he'd done wrong on another flight then yes, we all make mistakes, but that is irrelevant as it was a different scenario.
And considering the KLM accident prompted the development of CRM I'd suggest the Captain's demeanour was typical of some crew at the time and was typical of his behaviour according to crew he had flown with.
When Collins was allegedly reported by a First Officer... was he in sector whiteout, in a snowstorm, with no visual cues and operating with the wrong coordinates or different coordinates to what he was told he was operating to.
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Paraparaumu
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From para 377 " Again, comparing the circumstances of the two 747 accidents - Erebus and Tenerife is laughable."
And calling those tragedies as involving two 747's, does that show a certain lack of knowledge of at least one of the tragedies. Erebus was a DC10, not a 747., or was that just a slip of typing fingers?
And calling those tragedies as involving two 747's, does that show a certain lack of knowledge of at least one of the tragedies. Erebus was a DC10, not a 747., or was that just a slip of typing fingers?
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Auckalnd
Posts: 154
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Similarly, those who would describe Collins as a mixture of Chuck Yeager and Jesus themselves have a clear agenda. There are those who don't remember him quite so positively.
As I said, you can paint any picture you want to believe. Not one of us fits into a finite box, and any one of us, given the right circumstances, is at risk of making dumb mistakes.
There really is no comparison between Collins and van Zanten whatsoever. That is drawing a ridiculously long bow. Collins was respected, methodical and organised. He wasn’t somebody who rushed to get the job done and in doing so would omit facts and relevant detail. He was not an egotist nor did he lack humility, well at least not to a degree that is above the average 747 Captain. However, van Zanten was an egotistical, Impatient, self centred arrogant Dutchman, and this has been documented by numerous former co-pilots. Again, comparing the circumstances of the two 747 accidents - Erebus and Tenerife is laughable. What’s next, comparing Collins with Bud Holland of B-52 infamy, or comparing Collins with Jeffrey Dahmer??
And I see the ever arrogant ampan is still speaking derogatory of Justice Mahon and insinuating his mind was clouded by brain tissue deficiency. You just keep degrading your credibility with such foolish digs.
And I see the ever arrogant ampan is still speaking derogatory of Justice Mahon and insinuating his mind was clouded by brain tissue deficiency. You just keep degrading your credibility with such foolish digs.
Yeh, and there was no child abuse in the Catholic or Anglican churches, it was all just a conspiracy driven by the Royal Commissioner's addled brain tissue and the Maralinga explosions were not Britain's fault, it was all just the addled brain tissue of another Royal Commissioner...
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: New Zealand
Age: 71
Posts: 1,475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From para 377 " Again, comparing the circumstances of the two 747 accidents - Erebus and Tenerife is laughable."
And calling those tragedies as involving two 747's, does that show a certain lack of knowledge of at least one of the tragedies. Erebus was a DC10, not a 747., or was that just a slip of typing fingers?
And calling those tragedies as involving two 747's, does that show a certain lack of knowledge of at least one of the tragedies. Erebus was a DC10, not a 747., or was that just a slip of typing fingers?