MERGED: Alan's still not happy......
If it is true that people are deliberately running Qantas into the ground so that it can be bought cheap and taken over, will the share price rise significantly when the take over begins? I do believe that what is going on at Qantas is deliberate because the other option that management is as incompetent as it appears is even harder to believe.
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Ah Kelly, that's just the trick! Just as Sunfish has eluded to, like the Russian sell-off's (Gazprom anyone?), this may not be a classic stock buyout. It is the sell-off of those hollow log entities that enables the wealth transfer. Black box accounting allows them to give any illusion required.
Note also, that it not necessarily the franchise themselves that represent the wealth, but perhaps long term contracts to buy a service from a particular supplier - say leasing aircraft, ground handling, crewing companies or a myriad of other inputs to their businesses. Add in cross-jurisdiction contracts in multiple languages (Just like James Hardies move to the Netherlands) and you have a recipe for all sorts of opaque accounting trickery. Note, this is much more subtle that the 80's style LBO's to deliberately obscure the true motives.
So, in short, there may be no boost to the QAN stock price. There is a possibility that it may cease to exist as a listed entity & small shareholder losing their investment.
Note also, that it not necessarily the franchise themselves that represent the wealth, but perhaps long term contracts to buy a service from a particular supplier - say leasing aircraft, ground handling, crewing companies or a myriad of other inputs to their businesses. Add in cross-jurisdiction contracts in multiple languages (Just like James Hardies move to the Netherlands) and you have a recipe for all sorts of opaque accounting trickery. Note, this is much more subtle that the 80's style LBO's to deliberately obscure the true motives.
So, in short, there may be no boost to the QAN stock price. There is a possibility that it may cease to exist as a listed entity & small shareholder losing their investment.
All of the above may be true...
But...
I have an easier time thinking of Joyce as a garden-variety f*ck-up than as a Visigoth.
On the other hand, he might just be Clifford's wind-up fool.
But...
I have an easier time thinking of Joyce as a garden-variety f*ck-up than as a Visigoth.
On the other hand, he might just be Clifford's wind-up fool.
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If you really want to know how this works, some very smart people figured this out & published it in Oct 2011:
The Network of Global Corporate Control (PDF version available at that page)
There are some excellent graphics on network topology that show the how the vast majority of the worlds transnational entities are controlled by just 147 companies:
Forbes article: The 147 Companies That Control Everything
The Network of Global Corporate Control (PDF version available at that page)
There are some excellent graphics on network topology that show the how the vast majority of the worlds transnational entities are controlled by just 147 companies:
Forbes article: The 147 Companies That Control Everything
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Reality is CS could buy 35% today (so long as they mostly buy off foreign shareholders) with the existing QSA intact.
Without a QSA they would be limited to 49% (albeit then you could have no other foreign investors) -- not much of an increase for CS, and probably devestating for the amount of trading in QAN stock
Unless of course we go down the 'structuring' path of VirginInt
Without a QSA they would be limited to 49% (albeit then you could have no other foreign investors) -- not much of an increase for CS, and probably devestating for the amount of trading in QAN stock
Unless of course we go down the 'structuring' path of VirginInt
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...entirely a manufactured political crisis aimed at a specific end.... and there will be a moment of genuine crises....
Even so, it would be an enormous gamble with huge potential for a black swan outcome and I can’t imagine any such occurrence would pass without providing entirely unexpected opportunity for economic hijack.
If certain people are stupid enough to try and set off a corporate nuke, I say let them keep trying. They will probably blow themselves up prior and what comes out of the ashes can’t be any worse than what is being suggested, if they are.
Surely Not!
Thread Starter
And a 1/4 of those top 20 shouldn't actually exist. The idea of market capitalism is that you go broke! However we now have this stupid system where you go broke and the government bails you out then you carry on.
The fact that Goldman Sachs and a few others own anything is a disgrace.
The fact that Goldman Sachs and a few others own anything is a disgrace.
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Sunfish,
The Darwin to Tarcoola line went bust.
It cost over a $1bn to build financed mostly by a bunch of debt and a bit of equity from a few construction companies and governments. Equity was wiped out and it was sold by the banks.
It was not even earning enough to pay the interest bills. Was built on the premise that ships would unload goods in Darwin and then send goods down to Adelaide and thence onto Sydney and Melbourne - this simply didn't happen - the ships already go around Australia and the difference to ship to Darwin versus Sydney is minimal, thus freight didn't flow. Is thus a total white elephant as a project.
It was also not sold sold to Carlyle.
It was sold to Genessee & Wyoming, a US listed train operator, that previously operated other freight lines in South Australia
Genesee & Wyoming Australia
Just one of the many totally factless posts in this forum
The Darwin to Tarcoola line went bust.
It cost over a $1bn to build financed mostly by a bunch of debt and a bit of equity from a few construction companies and governments. Equity was wiped out and it was sold by the banks.
It was not even earning enough to pay the interest bills. Was built on the premise that ships would unload goods in Darwin and then send goods down to Adelaide and thence onto Sydney and Melbourne - this simply didn't happen - the ships already go around Australia and the difference to ship to Darwin versus Sydney is minimal, thus freight didn't flow. Is thus a total white elephant as a project.
It was also not sold sold to Carlyle.
It was sold to Genessee & Wyoming, a US listed train operator, that previously operated other freight lines in South Australia
Genesee & Wyoming Australia
Just one of the many totally factless posts in this forum
Originally Posted by Solomans Son
Now you see the true game. Does Clifford work for Qantas or does he work for Kohlberg, Kravis and Roberts(KKR)?Last time we looked he was a Senior Advisor to KKR. Why is Mr Meaney on the board? His background is with Texas Pacific Group(TPG) architects of the APA bid and have recently destroyed Swissair. They have been patience but the brand has been too strong for them to kill it. Remember what these people did in the United States, RJR Nabisco, Eastern airlines to name two. The "Assets went private and the Debt went public". Lobby Mr Abbott to hold his ground and not give in. These people need to be brought to account! We need to pull the chain and get rid of this vermin and get people in to grow the business.
The TPG/APA bid had aspects of what's in this book written all over it. One cannot help but wonder that there's still a plan on the boil.
Can someone with more knowledge/insight than me comment on the Rod Eddington factor in all this? The single largest shareholder (over 26%) of QF is JP Morgan Nominees Australia, and Eddington is the Non Exec Chairman for J P Morgan Aust and NZ, right? And we all remember Eddington's role on the board of Allco which formed APA, the private equity tilt at QF in 2007, etc.
How does all tie together? Does it explain a reluctance of shareholders to tap the board and AJ on the shoulder? A lower share price may be a good thing for "owners" after all?
And where are the foreign owners of QF, for that matter? Are they holders indirectly through shareholder-owners such as J P Morgan or HSBC Custody Nominees, Australia (22% of the shares)?
Just trying to understand the whole picture better, since knowledge really is power. He who knows the least may be the one left searching for the last deck-chair.
How does all tie together? Does it explain a reluctance of shareholders to tap the board and AJ on the shoulder? A lower share price may be a good thing for "owners" after all?
And where are the foreign owners of QF, for that matter? Are they holders indirectly through shareholder-owners such as J P Morgan or HSBC Custody Nominees, Australia (22% of the shares)?
Just trying to understand the whole picture better, since knowledge really is power. He who knows the least may be the one left searching for the last deck-chair.
Meanwhile back at the ranch.
Qantas confirms dozens of jobs to go at Hobart airport - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Credit where it's due…
Alan has transformed Tasmania as a glowing example of his strategies at work. Once one company and one group of employees looked after Tasmania. Now you can have a multitude of variations from Qantas, Jetstar, Cobham, Qlink and all the levels of management that are required to organise such a fiasco. And the brilliant part….making full time employees redundant.
Using the line borrowed from the engineers.
"there simply isn't enough work for these full time employees to remain. Their jobs are gone"
Brilliant.
What a bloody shame. Not enough to offer to negotiate on handling whoever it is that ultimately run services down there, Al would rather put them to the sword.
Word on the street, Townsville, Cairns and Adelaide all to be strategically reviewed in the very near future.
Get rid of a few more front line operational people from baggage handlers, to check in staff, to engineers. It will solve everything.
Qantas confirms dozens of jobs to go at Hobart airport - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Credit where it's due…
Alan has transformed Tasmania as a glowing example of his strategies at work. Once one company and one group of employees looked after Tasmania. Now you can have a multitude of variations from Qantas, Jetstar, Cobham, Qlink and all the levels of management that are required to organise such a fiasco. And the brilliant part….making full time employees redundant.
Using the line borrowed from the engineers.
"there simply isn't enough work for these full time employees to remain. Their jobs are gone"
Brilliant.
What a bloody shame. Not enough to offer to negotiate on handling whoever it is that ultimately run services down there, Al would rather put them to the sword.
Word on the street, Townsville, Cairns and Adelaide all to be strategically reviewed in the very near future.
Get rid of a few more front line operational people from baggage handlers, to check in staff, to engineers. It will solve everything.
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neville,
If you did some further research you would see that
G&W bought the Adelaide-Darwin link in 2010
Caryle invested in G&W in mid-2012 investing $800m to help it buy RailAmerica for $2bn. It has gradually sold those shares over 2012 and 2013
-----------
UShaha,
JPMorgan "Nominees" is the key bit - it is merely a paper shuffler - basically it acts as the registered holder on behalf of a whole bunch of investment funds and superannuation funds who are the true beneficial holders.
It basically does all of the paperwork on behalf of the investment and super funds, and does not actually hold much power itself. For voting and the like it will act under instruction of the beneficial holder, who normally follows the recommendations of a few other firms.
Apart from Eddington being Chairman of the local branch of the Bank that owns this services company, I wouldn't read much into it,.
If you did some further research you would see that
G&W bought the Adelaide-Darwin link in 2010
Caryle invested in G&W in mid-2012 investing $800m to help it buy RailAmerica for $2bn. It has gradually sold those shares over 2012 and 2013
-----------
UShaha,
JPMorgan "Nominees" is the key bit - it is merely a paper shuffler - basically it acts as the registered holder on behalf of a whole bunch of investment funds and superannuation funds who are the true beneficial holders.
It basically does all of the paperwork on behalf of the investment and super funds, and does not actually hold much power itself. For voting and the like it will act under instruction of the beneficial holder, who normally follows the recommendations of a few other firms.
Apart from Eddington being Chairman of the local branch of the Bank that owns this services company, I wouldn't read much into it,.
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Word on the street, Townsville, Cairns and Adelaide all to be strategically reviewed in the very near future
Adelaide...theres something like 8 737's per night there. During the last dial in it was mentioned that they will be examining the proposed 737 Adelaide base again this year.
If Adelaide goes.....my god, the 737 flying would be decimated....
I think by reviewed they mean 'make ust about everyone redundant, then in some the contractors.'
QLink managed to replace QF baggage handlers in BNE with a contractor not long ago. Don't be too surprised to see the same thing happen at other ports.
Check-In/Customer Service Staff
Baggage Handlers
It can all be done by someone else cheaper.
Engineers and Pilots aren't immune to this either.
QLink managed to replace QF baggage handlers in BNE with a contractor not long ago. Don't be too surprised to see the same thing happen at other ports.
Check-In/Customer Service Staff
Baggage Handlers
It can all be done by someone else cheaper.
Engineers and Pilots aren't immune to this either.
Astroboy 55
Can't see Adelaide going in this round, but for sure if Cobham can acquire some more 717s, put business class seats in them, then I have no doubt the days of Qantas mainline at Townsville and Cairns are numbered!
Plan B could be to retrofit business into some existing 717s, move them east and replace them in the west with displaced 738s from the east.
There has long been rumours of a mainline pullback to the main cities,
Perth/Adelaide/Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane,
Re 926/927, as has been often mentioned on these forums actual loads don't mean good yield or profit on a particular route.
Can't see Adelaide going in this round, but for sure if Cobham can acquire some more 717s, put business class seats in them, then I have no doubt the days of Qantas mainline at Townsville and Cairns are numbered!
Plan B could be to retrofit business into some existing 717s, move them east and replace them in the west with displaced 738s from the east.
There has long been rumours of a mainline pullback to the main cities,
Perth/Adelaide/Melbourne/Sydney/Brisbane,
Re 926/927, as has been often mentioned on these forums actual loads don't mean good yield or profit on a particular route.
but for sure if Cobham can acquire some more 717s,
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Interestingly the sandpit rumour mill is alive with talk that one little Irishman is attempting to gain employment with a real airline over there. Perhaps he has his eyes set on the recently knighted Sir Tim's succession.
The only way he can get employed over there is to perhaps make a donation, or significant gift, in the upcoming review, that will benefit his potential employers. The pressure on Canberra to allow a certain major increased access to Australia's major ports is also on, but in who's best interest?
JNB gone, Sin-Per gone, at least one but possibly both DXB - LHR's gone, and the excess 380 capacity to replace existing 744's which will be retired ASAP. Just the start of the February carnage.
Once the major surgery is announced, and the staff morale hits the lowest point ever, AJ walks and suddenly everyone is happy.
The only way he can get employed over there is to perhaps make a donation, or significant gift, in the upcoming review, that will benefit his potential employers. The pressure on Canberra to allow a certain major increased access to Australia's major ports is also on, but in who's best interest?
JNB gone, Sin-Per gone, at least one but possibly both DXB - LHR's gone, and the excess 380 capacity to replace existing 744's which will be retired ASAP. Just the start of the February carnage.
Once the major surgery is announced, and the staff morale hits the lowest point ever, AJ walks and suddenly everyone is happy.