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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

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MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

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Old 17th Jan 2014, 00:09
  #1741 (permalink)  
 
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For what? An attempt to rehabilitate Joyce's reputation by comparison? Wasn't Toomey widely hated back in the day?
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 01:03
  #1742 (permalink)  
 
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Wasn't Toomey widely hated back in the day?
He was the face of the Ansett debacle - but he got sold a **** sandwich when he took that job - talk about wrong place wrong time, he did try and lead from the front to get it out of the hole though - when did you last see scrotum face or the leprechaun fronting a TV ad for the airline.

But he was at one stage good enough to be CFO of Qantas, and it was between him and scrotum face for the top job - don't forget John Borghetti missed out on the top gig at Qantas - so it's not exactly a death knell.

He hasn't done a lot in aviation for a few years though - a stint at Airlines PNG the Jet in India - he either likes a challenge or really has bad luck picking companies to work for.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 01:04
  #1743 (permalink)  
 
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Seriously, the guy who oversaw the demise of Ansett and has been in charge of the virtually bankrupt Jet Airways!! I would rather keep Joyce.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 01:33
  #1744 (permalink)  
 
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There are some more in depth Indian newspaper stories about his departure: he's only been there for seven months...leaving allegedly because Etihad (who now owns 24% of Jet Airways) wants their own guy in charge.

I agree that being passed over for the QF CEO role does speak highly for a guy...given the dud chairwomen we have had for...forever, really.

On the other hand, it would be interesting to see what would happen if we actually got a real leader with both charisma and ability. I swear that after Joyce a real leader could turn QF into a cult...just lead us out of the wilderness.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 01:38
  #1745 (permalink)  
 
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SpannerTwister,

I don't doubt that QFF is valuable (although I also think that an element of cash would need to be taken from Qantas to offset the outstanding points balance which is in essence a liability if it is ever separated -- say tomorrow everyone decided to cash their points for toasters or gift vouchers), but the value comes mostly from its ability to sell points to third parties.

but for the price of a 'ticket' that Qantas is able to charge I don't think that loyalty is much more than marketing fluff.

e.g consider a person with QFF Bronze or Silver status wanting to fly SYD-SIN return in Economy
Scoot is $800
Singapore is $1000
What is the most QF can charge and get the booking, knowing the person can earn points.
I suspect its not more than $25-50 over Singapore, and even then some will be choosing Scoot instead.
The really $ focused might even get a cheaper flight on Air Asia going via
KUL with a slightly longer flight time.

For a QFF Gold or Platinum or Qantas Club member, the premium might be a bit more because they get to use their lounge access on a Qantas flight.

Now sure for others (eg. Rainman) they will call their agent and say book Qantas, don't consider anyone else, dont consider price - but sadly that is a very small percentage of passengers.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 02:01
  #1746 (permalink)  
 
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post #1798
While I agree with you on the solution, I think Joyce and Clifford (who was a known cutter in former days) are the ones who need to do the cutting - swift and hard as part of their final period.

Then sweep in a new broom, new management to get things right. No point getting a new CEO if the first thing they do is cut -they will be as popular as Joyce.
Yes but these two could still cause plenty of problems along the way.

Wasn't Toomey widely hated back in the day?
Who was the senior QF Executive who shoved him up against a wall and called him a bully - big guy but yes, a bully.


Would you want Toomey anywhere near the place? Even if Joyce & Clifford went today and an interim board bought someone like Toomey in for 6 months to make relevant cuts, etc. He could be just as dangerous as Joyce as he knows that he doesn't have a good name at QANTAS let along AirNZ and Ansett. He could still cause plenty of problems along the way.
I would rather keep Joyce.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 02:03
  #1747 (permalink)  
 
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Moa999...

Around twenty years ago I asked a table of travel agents what the breakdown was in their clientele. They all said around a third wanted to fly Qantas regardless, a third wanted cheapest and the remaining third was split over every other factor.

As you mentioned, our default market share is pretty small. When did you last hear someone call them self a "Ford man" or "Holden man"? That ethos died out with the last generation. I expect that our default proportion would be less than 5% of travel agent traffic.

No brand can enjoy lifelong loyalty without providing palpable value...schemes notwithstanding.

One aspect of selling off the FF division is decoupling international from another money losing accounting entry: FF points are mostly earned on domestic services, and mostly redeemed on international. At well below market rates. I heard that FF buys a seat from International for less than $100, far below the market value, or even the cost of flying that seat.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 02:20
  #1748 (permalink)  
 
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Toomey didn't understand the problems back then, and therefore was unable to provide a solution. Exactly the same would occur today if he became CEO and HE would be the last nail into the Qantas coffin.
This doesn't have to happen, and sensible, proactive replacements for Joyce and Clifford would improve things considerably.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 03:02
  #1749 (permalink)  
 
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As long as it wasn't a choice from the coterie of incompetents that have been installed underneath.

Frankly I would rather Gomer Pile or Mr Squiggle than anyone who has been in Qf management...
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 03:08
  #1750 (permalink)  
 
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I caught Toomey in a lie on 774 talk radio with John Fain regarding the grounding of the Ansett B767 fleet. He said it was "absolutely not a serious problem" when I challenged him by suggesting it could only be symptomatic of deep seated engineering planning problems - and it was. Sure, send him to Qantas to complete the disaster.

Furthermore, I am getting a little tired of myself and others not getting some cred from the lazy journalists who pick up and regurgitate what we said many months ago.

For the record, 1 Oct 2004, I commented that Jetstar Asia was a waste of time and money and I maintain that view:


There is a very old business principle that says "stick to your knitting". Qantas knows SFA about Asian business customs, markets, or business practices.

My guess is it will follow the long line of Australian businesses that have been royally screwed in Asia, the last of course being Telstra (how many billion did itwrite off?).

Asian businessmen feed them the standard bait - which is the purported "huge" size of the Asian market. However the market never eventuates and the Australians finally realised that they have over invested. Soon there is not enough working capital. My Dad says he has seen five such Asain "booms" since 1935, all of them hollow.

The Australians baulk at having to fork out more to keep a loss making business going. Then their local business partner makes them an offer they cannot refuse and aquires the assets and infrastructure for a song - and guess what? Suddenly the business starts to make money!

The dream of international expansion is very seductive for management, international business trips (as if QF execs don't get enough?), opportunities to expand the number of management positions and direct reports, to "train" yourself to be CEO (or whatever) by taking a similar appointment in the little subsidiary.

However the hard reality is that you should never EVER expand internationally unless you have a COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE.

To put it in simple terms which all can understand: IS THERE SOMETHING THAT QANTAS CAN DO IN ASIAN MARKETS THAT NO ONE ELSE IN THE WORLD CAN DO?

I think the obvious answer is no. Asian markets do very nicely on their own thank you. Please come and build us a new airline Qantas. When it doesn't make any money, we will buy your share of it for a song, then we will use our business contacts to fill the seats and make money, but not before we have got rid of you.

Wait for the exuberance over the launch of jetstar Asia to peak, then sell your share. Give it a year or two and you will get them back for half price.

In my haste I forgot to read this post, but when I did I started laughing. How many times have I heard slight variations on this rubbish?

"Jetstar Asia will prove to be a masterstroke by Team Dixon. Wake up and smell the strategy people!! Jetstar Asia will be Qantas\' foothold in the region, and for those of you predicting its demise, remember this is the fastest growing region on earth in terms of population growth as well as financially. The presence of the Jetstar brand in Asia will serve to promote the growth of Jetstar Australia from Asian visitors and vice versa. Team Dixon is 100% committed to making this a success and has publicly stated that he will not allow it to fail. Dixon has planted a seed and this combined with an unwavering strategic vision will see it grow to a monolith in the coming years...........the bells are a ringing folks!!"

Lets deconstruct this:

"Jetstar Asia will be Qantas\' foothold in the region":

- Precisely why is J*Asia going to take market share from the other multitude of carriers? Please explain? Also please explain how they are going to cope with competitor response? Do they know what that is? Qantas fights tooth and nail for market share, why wouldn\'t they expect their competitors to do the same?


"remember this is the fastest growing region on earth in terms of population growth as well as financially":-

This may be true, for today. However the logical fallacy is that somehow this growth will translate into increased air travel. It may not do that, especially if interest rates increase or oil prices skyrocket.

To put it another way the lure of huge Asian markets is always used to attract western investment. To put it simplistically "There are 900 million Chinese, if I can sell even ten percent a tooth brush, I can sell 90 million toothbrushes, therefore I will build a toothbrush plant in China". This conveniently ignores the fact that there are already Chinese toothbrush manufacturers, that most of the 900 million can\'t afford toothbrushes, and that those that do prefer to keep supporting local institutions.

"presence of the Jetstar brand in Asia will serve to promote the growth of Jetstar Australia ":-

Please explain how this is going to translate into bums on seats. Does it mean that it is OK if Jetstar Asia is losing money if Jetstar Australia is getting extra revenue from Asian passengers?


" Team Dixon is 100% committed to making this a success and has publicly stated that he will not allow it to fail. "

Don\'t make me laugh! Dixon is CHAIRMAN of J* Asia! He is finally a CHAIRMAN!!! Whoopee out from under! Next stop CEO of BA! However if you are a shareholder, I wonder how much of your money he is prepared to squander to make this a success? One billion? Two billion?

This is just total madness. Hasn\'t the Qantas Board heard of Risk Managment! What passes for corporate governance these days at Qantas? Obviously there isn\'t any, other wise how did Trevor Kennedy and later James Packer get on the Board? One was a media type and the other has already lost billions with Onetel.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 03:49
  #1751 (permalink)  
 
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So you're saying strategically ambitious, tactically unprepared.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 06:36
  #1752 (permalink)  
 
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Australian subsidy for automobile manufacturing is/was? 18 cents per capita whereas in Germany it is 96 cents per capita and in the United States it is $2.70 per capita.As for China we will never know but it does happen but we don't hear about it. Go figure! When the dollar drops to 50 cents we will have NO skills to take advantage of this and we will need to import workers. What a dumb country and getting dumber!
It's hard to compete on those terms.

One other problem you have in OZ is the massive effect the mining industry has had on wages. They've driven up wages over there which has been good for many, BUT, it's help make industries like car production uncompetitive. This problem must have also flowed in to other industries as well.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 07:09
  #1753 (permalink)  
 
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One other problem you have in OZ is the massive effect the mining industry has had on wages. They've driven up wages over there which has been good for many, BUT, it's help make industries like car production uncompetitive. This problem must have also flowed in to other industries as well.
Yep, its call Dutch disease.
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Old 17th Jan 2014, 23:28
  #1754 (permalink)  
 
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Thumbs up Why not Toomey?

Toomey was certainly given a hospital pass when he took over Ansett and he certainly did his best there in very difficult circumstances.

Sunfish, your comment in 2004 was astute but now, would you really expect any CEO of a struggling business to admit on live radio there were serious problems? It is always a requirement for CEOs to maintain confidence in the brand.

Toomey would be an interesting choice as a Joyce replacement; at least he does know how to run an airline and is one of us.
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Old 18th Jan 2014, 04:33
  #1755 (permalink)  
 
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Well change the Board!
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Old 18th Jan 2014, 05:52
  #1756 (permalink)  
 
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And therein lies the issue. Ultimately the board set the direction and strategic policy and bring in a CEO who can sell it to everyone else, but also be the fall guy when it all goes wrong (planned or otherwise).

Take for instance our friends at Rio Tinto. 12 months ago Tom Albanese had to fall on his sword for the write downs that occurred due to some poor decision making/deteriorating market conditions etc. no one from the board though met the same fate. Why? Because the board were happy to let Tom take the company forward into some otherwise ill timed and I'll defined deals in places they may not have necessarily wanted to do business in. They signed off on it so should have ultimately faced the same bullet (and I'm not a fan of TA by any stretch of the imagination.
Come back to QF.
The board have set their course for what they want to happen and are using BGA (again, not a fan) to complete the job and be the public face. End result, BGA leaves with his pockets lined and pants intact, board gets what it wants with its pockets lined and pants intact and the staff end up with empty pockets and pants ripped to the ground in perpetuation for the largest shafting that many will ever receive.
Make no mistake, QF will continue to exist in the future but it will be a very different business to what it is now, to the detriment of its employees, the Australian people and government, its current shareholders and its passengers.
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Old 18th Jan 2014, 10:32
  #1757 (permalink)  
 
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Although they failed for much the same reasons as this joke of a board and management group, the Romans did give us something:

Nail some sense into them!

Forget share bonuses and KPI's. Focus on the basics. Nothing clears the mind like the survival instinct

Sunfish - I'm not your average QF employee and have spoken at motivational and business lectures. I've used your wise words when speaking to others and I thank you for them. Understandably, your mailbox is always full, I apologise for the publicity. You and Steve P should be in the running for board seats. It's a joke you are both not already there.
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Old 18th Jan 2014, 22:37
  #1758 (permalink)  
 
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Rumblings of a February announcement ..
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Old 18th Jan 2014, 22:45
  #1759 (permalink)  
 
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Myshoutcaptain,

Well lets start the rumour mill again :

Feb announcements.....? What are your bids?
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Old 18th Jan 2014, 22:49
  #1760 (permalink)  
 
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Prediction # 1 Leigh Clifford announces his retirement amongst group hugs & backslapping for a job well done.
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