QANTAS - WHERE TO NOW?
short flights long nights
Somewhere in this thread or the other QF thread, someone posted that $1.20 (I think it was) was the trigger point for Dixon to move. If that is true, well here it comes.
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Ha! Does anyone really think that if Dixon and cronies take a stake that employees will give a damn if QF make a profit. What sort of engagement levels would we see then! Dixon would have to buy a dog if he wanted loyalty.
short flights long nights
They wont care about profits.....the profit will come from asset strippping it.
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Take an average of the EPS since the Airlines listing. Perhaps even exclude the 2003-2008 period of economic manipulations. It would come to prob something around 20c. Based on the last few years and looking forward to the next 10 years in view of the current competition, I would think 10c per share would be reasonable. Multiply this by 12 (Benjamin Grahams neutral rating) and $1.20 would be fair value.
If QF follows billabongs recent massacre, expect a similar outcome. An offer from an entity - The share price will bounce to this offer price. It will be way to low and be refused. The price will decay, then the formal loss will be announced driving it back down, then a credit downgrade will drive it lower.
I think it will bottom about 80c worst case scenario - broader economic considered.
Try not to get emotionally involved in all this it will surely DO YOUR HEAD IN.
The next 10 years of the economy are going to be REALLY tough. Qantas is cashed up.... QF is a national icon, it will survive and prosper, the management and the board are on track (obviously not from a pilot's perspective though, and that is fair enough). Shareholders and customers will respond PREDICTABLY.
Just my two bobs worth.
If QF follows billabongs recent massacre, expect a similar outcome. An offer from an entity - The share price will bounce to this offer price. It will be way to low and be refused. The price will decay, then the formal loss will be announced driving it back down, then a credit downgrade will drive it lower.
I think it will bottom about 80c worst case scenario - broader economic considered.
Try not to get emotionally involved in all this it will surely DO YOUR HEAD IN.
The next 10 years of the economy are going to be REALLY tough. Qantas is cashed up.... QF is a national icon, it will survive and prosper, the management and the board are on track (obviously not from a pilot's perspective though, and that is fair enough). Shareholders and customers will respond PREDICTABLY.
Just my two bobs worth.
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crystal,one of your better pieces.
I think you'll find many QF people including crew would agree that Qantas needs reform and some of the long held practices changed.
How and where that is done is the major sticking point .Doing stuff like this requires a different skill set which includes empathy , sensitivity and a genuine desire to look after your people and create an open honest forum for change.
You say that these guys are on the right track. I believe they cannot succeed without having the staff behind them. It would not matter if he showered staff with pieces of silver. There is little or no trust, no benefit of doubt given. Like a pollie who has been in power too long , people stop listening.
He / they had the chance to make change amicably but ideology prevented that with the desire to crush. Not to do the really hard yards and negotiate middle ground or put in place a transition, not a very cynical , orchestrated industrial campaign culminating in the grounding.
In doing so they have made things so much worse and more difficult and ultimately more costly and painful for the owners and staff. It is a terrible state of affairs that I do not think that can change without big changes at the very top.
The above rides on the premise that they do really want to succeed and what success means to these people.
I think you'll find many QF people including crew would agree that Qantas needs reform and some of the long held practices changed.
How and where that is done is the major sticking point .Doing stuff like this requires a different skill set which includes empathy , sensitivity and a genuine desire to look after your people and create an open honest forum for change.
You say that these guys are on the right track. I believe they cannot succeed without having the staff behind them. It would not matter if he showered staff with pieces of silver. There is little or no trust, no benefit of doubt given. Like a pollie who has been in power too long , people stop listening.
He / they had the chance to make change amicably but ideology prevented that with the desire to crush. Not to do the really hard yards and negotiate middle ground or put in place a transition, not a very cynical , orchestrated industrial campaign culminating in the grounding.
In doing so they have made things so much worse and more difficult and ultimately more costly and painful for the owners and staff. It is a terrible state of affairs that I do not think that can change without big changes at the very top.
The above rides on the premise that they do really want to succeed and what success means to these people.
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So right Ampclamp. They need a new CEO who stands up in front of them, and tells them how it is. Then ask for the staffs help and dedication to get QF back on track. Yates and Menidue both did when QF was battling hard times, both times the staff responded magnificently, and they will do it again. Just one good and honest CEO with foresight will turn her around.
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Qantas braces for hostile bids after downgrade
Perhaps the Rat spin doctors have finally new lines...is this a smoke screen?
Lets hope their contingency plans also include "friendly" bids if the SMH is correct.
Regardless, it looks like we are all being played for fools.
Perhaps the Rat spin doctors have finally new lines...is this a smoke screen?
Lets hope their contingency plans also include "friendly" bids if the SMH is correct.
Regardless, it looks like we are all being played for fools.
Dixon by another name...............I saw on the news bar on the news this morning that Singleton was interested in QANTAS.
Singleton 'interested' in Qantas
Who's Singo best mate, is it Gai Waterhouse? well on race day it is.
Dixon is a closer mate for sure. Gee, what about the spin coming from one A Jones on this.
Singleton 'interested' in Qantas
Who's Singo best mate, is it Gai Waterhouse? well on race day it is.
Dixon is a closer mate for sure. Gee, what about the spin coming from one A Jones on this.
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So should all go well and AJ resigns, what do you want the new CEO to do? There seems to be a strong feeling of helplessness watching these p*#cks unravel QF for their own greedy ambitions, but what specifically should be done to get qantas back on top? Spending huge cap ex buying new aeroplanes? Allow LH crew to continue to earn 350k+ to work 20 times a year? A rebrand? Restarting old routes?
I'd like to hear what specific ideas are out there for when that glorious day comes and the entire board are cleaned out and replaced with ethical business people who want to see Qantas thriving like it should be.
I'd like to hear what specific ideas are out there for when that glorious day comes and the entire board are cleaned out and replaced with ethical business people who want to see Qantas thriving like it should be.
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They could treat staff like people.
Find common ground on the two outstanding EAs that are before FWA.
Bring maintenance back onshore where it is cheaper in the long term.
Buy some triplers and put them on appropriate routes.
Ditch the Asian fantasy.
Sell Qantas seats to Qantas pax (not Jetstar).
Come clean with cross-subsidy.
Use Jetstar at what it is good for - the low cost market.
Fly to LHR at the same level they used to.
Put some toilets back in their aircraft.
I gotta go.....
Find common ground on the two outstanding EAs that are before FWA.
Bring maintenance back onshore where it is cheaper in the long term.
Buy some triplers and put them on appropriate routes.
Ditch the Asian fantasy.
Sell Qantas seats to Qantas pax (not Jetstar).
Come clean with cross-subsidy.
Use Jetstar at what it is good for - the low cost market.
Fly to LHR at the same level they used to.
Put some toilets back in their aircraft.
I gotta go.....
Incurable Romantic
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Just found one paragraph in a Plane Talking article that sums up the issue perfectly in only a few lines.
Qantas comes under network pressure from Emirates | Plane Talking
Absolutely spot on in my admittedly SLF viewpoint.
Cheers
N'oz
The long term focus of Qantas management’s on blaming geography, the staff, the competitors and everyone but itself for not even trying to be competitive in a cruel world may have rendered the group too unpalatable a target.
Absolutely spot on in my admittedly SLF viewpoint.
Cheers
N'oz
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........but the down sides of the two branded Jetstar/Qantas strategy and the up sides of the single branded Virgin Australia strategy.
600 pax A380
QF/JQ on the one plane 5 class cabin
One other concept that was doing the rounds was to reconfigure 60% of the bottom deck with 300 JQ seats in 11 abreast seating plus another 300 Qantas seats in 4 class. Simple solves everybody's problems. Paint the front half white and the back half orange. Dont laugh too loudly. Jetstar to London and LAX here we come.
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Better late than never
Finally the press are asking the questions we have been discussing on here for years now.
Who would of thought.....
Before we’re overwhelmed by the drama of Qantas’s potential dismemberment, it’s fair to ask: who ran the roo down and set it up for the chop?
This is where the present and immediately past CEOs will look suitably serious, wearily shake their heads and blame the workforce, other airlines, the weather, the economy, European crises, viruses, the oil price, foreign governments, the Australian government, the alignment of the stars, the flight patterns of penguins – any and everything except themselves and the decisions they’ve made.
And the board of directors standing behind them will nod gravely, pat their appointments on the back and metaphorically say:” Never mind, poor dear, have another million for your troubles.”
Read more: Qantas: who ran down the roo?
This is where the present and immediately past CEOs will look suitably serious, wearily shake their heads and blame the workforce, other airlines, the weather, the economy, European crises, viruses, the oil price, foreign governments, the Australian government, the alignment of the stars, the flight patterns of penguins – any and everything except themselves and the decisions they’ve made.
And the board of directors standing behind them will nod gravely, pat their appointments on the back and metaphorically say:” Never mind, poor dear, have another million for your troubles.”
Read more: Qantas: who ran down the roo?
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A320 all business?
This is where the Irish Bloke got it from
BA to operate premium A318s under new subsidiary
Different market, different conditions..
BA to operate premium A318s under new subsidiary
Different market, different conditions..
One other concept that was doing the rounds was to reconfigure 60% of the bottom deck with 300 JQ seats in 11 abreast seating plus another 300 Qantas seats in 4 class. Simple solves everybody's problems. Paint the front half white and the back half orange.
Also, reconfiguring an Airbus is a lot more expensive (& time consuming) than a Boeing so if they get the configuration wrong, it's a costly mistake - like the original QF A380 config.
Last edited by Going Boeing; 14th Jun 2012 at 07:02.
LR 3:
Sorry, a hundred footer won't cut it in the Mediterranean or Caribean, you need Two to Three hundred feet plus Two, not One, Helicopters.
While reading all this discusion I'm actually wondering who is going to write the book about the QF demise.I think Ben Sanilands is the man.
Joyce and Dixon will have a wonderful laugh reading it while they sail through the mediteranian on their 100 footer purchased of course with the proceeds of the breakup of QF.
Joyce and Dixon will have a wonderful laugh reading it while they sail through the mediteranian on their 100 footer purchased of course with the proceeds of the breakup of QF.
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This from 'Friday Flyer':
FIRST AIRBUS A330 ARRIVES IN THAILAND Qantas Thailand welcomed its first Airbus A330 aircraft, named Kununurra, to Suvarnabhumi Airport on 10 June. The change of aircraft is part of our five year plan. The aircraft was welcomed by Qantas Thailand Manager Sriram Narayan and Airport Manager Louis Moser.
I suppose the WTF is superfluous
FIRST AIRBUS A330 ARRIVES IN THAILAND Qantas Thailand welcomed its first Airbus A330 aircraft, named Kununurra, to Suvarnabhumi Airport on 10 June. The change of aircraft is part of our five year plan. The aircraft was welcomed by Qantas Thailand Manager Sriram Narayan and Airport Manager Louis Moser.
I suppose the WTF is superfluous
I wouldn't bother with WTF - more like WFC? I can't believe anyone still reads the Friday Flyer. Another sign of my disengagement I suppose.
Last edited by DirectAnywhere; 15th Jun 2012 at 03:12.