Merged: Senate Inquiry
Probably, sell his soul for it. That is the trouble with society today, all about me me me. Who cares about anyone else. Remember the days when journo's had integrity and would write factual pieces.
As a current training captain the workload is already pretty high with crew that have experience, let alone someone with 200 odd hours........... it will be VERY hard work, throw in poor weather, aircraft fault etc, BANG.
What beggers belief is that the US has seen the error of its ways and reversed the low time requirements but yet our politicians will allow the likes of JQ, VB to try it, all for the measly price of the chairmans lounge.
We NEED a complete 180 in thinking in society before it is too late.
As a current training captain the workload is already pretty high with crew that have experience, let alone someone with 200 odd hours........... it will be VERY hard work, throw in poor weather, aircraft fault etc, BANG.
What beggers belief is that the US has seen the error of its ways and reversed the low time requirements but yet our politicians will allow the likes of JQ, VB to try it, all for the measly price of the chairmans lounge.
We NEED a complete 180 in thinking in society before it is too late.
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At Rodchucker,
Im pretty sure pollies accepting gifts would be a massive massive conflict of interest.
As a side note there is an option to comment at the bottom of most of Steve Creedys articles.....I tried and it never went up...go figure.
Im pretty sure pollies accepting gifts would be a massive massive conflict of interest.
As a side note there is an option to comment at the bottom of most of Steve Creedys articles.....I tried and it never went up...go figure.
Im pretty sure pollies accepting gifts would be a massive massive conflict of interest.
Does not seem to be a problem.
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Interesting facts figures and an uncanny line at the start:
Always expect rough ride with airline shares
Malcolm-Maiden
March 26, 2011
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SPARE a thought for Virgin Blue chief executive John Borghetti and his counterpart at Qantas, Alan Joyce. They are running listed companies whose shares are the investment equivalent of plutonium: highly volatile and dangerous in the wrong hands.
Joyce at least has a leading position in his domestic market. That gives him some flexibility to respond to the shocks that roll across the airline industry with monotonous regularity, and he used it this week, by announcing increases of up to $10 on one-way domestic and trans-Tasman flights in response to higher fuel prices.
Virgin Blue has lower market share, fewer well-heeled business travellers and more leisure travellers who are sensitive to price rises. Borghetti is moving the airline up market where he will have greater pricing power, but he's not there yet, and the latest waves to roll over the industry have trashed his company's profit outlook. Virgin made $37 million in the December half, and had seemed set to do better in the June half. Now, it says it will book a full-year loss of between $30 million and $80 million.
Advertisement: Story continues below
Virgin is particularly vulnerable in this market, but the shopping list of reasons Borghetti gave for the profit downgrade really do underline that owning airline shares is an adults-only game. If you aren't a sophisticated investor capable of actively trading the share price volatility that is a hallmark of airline shares everywhere, you really shouldn't have them at all.
Virgin Blue said it was being hit by rising fuel prices as tension in Libya and the Middle East pushed up on the price of oil. It had also been hurt by the Christchurch earthquake, and the floods and cyclone Yasi in Queensland. The fuel price rise will cost Virgin Blue an extra $60 million in the June half. The Christchurch earthquake is expected to cost another $15 million, and cyclone Yasi and the Queensland floods will cost $50 million between them, mainly because they have turned tourists away.
Airline investors need to keep in mind, however, that for airlines, surprises are the norm.
At the beginning of this month for example the International Air Transport Association cut its estimate of global airline industry earnings from $US9.1 billion to $US8.6 billion, well below the $US16 billion earned by the industry worldwide in 2010. The new profit forecast represented a margin of only 1.4 per cent on revenue, and it was out of date less than two weeks later, after Japan's March 11 earthquake.
Japan's crisis isn't enough to knock the global industry into the red this year, and that means that 2011 will actually be relatively good: since the turn of the century, the industry has only been profitable for three years - 2010, and in 2006 and 2007, before the global crisis erupted. Industry losses topped $US10 billion after the September 11 terrorist attack on New York in 2001, and during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Over the decade, net losses globally were about $US56 billion.
The airline industry has in fact probably lost money since its inception, because it almost uniquely is exposed to global shocks, and is uniquely ill-equipped to respond to them.
Airlines operate in a market where price competition is intense, limiting their ability to offset revenue shocks with price rises.
And they are capital intensive, with most of their investment riding on their ability to keep their planes in the air. If they do not do so, the consequences can be devastating.
They are currency exposed, because their planes are US-dollar denominated and because tourist passenger numbers are sensitive to currency movements (the strength of the Australian dollar is the biggest weight on inbound tourism in this market right now, for example), and they are of course fuel intensive, and exposed to a commodity - oil - that is highly susceptible to political tension, as the latest oil price spike demonstrates. The tensions in the Middle East and north Africa were not predicted, and pushed the price of oil up from about $US86 a barrel to about $US105 a barrel in a month.
It's true that airlines can hedge some of these risks. But unexpected turmoil can overrun hedging strategies, as is happening now at Virgin Blue, which had hedged the fuel price to a maximum of just over $US101 a barrel.
If there is an exception to the rule that airlines are the business world's Whac-a-Moles, it's Qantas. Qantas routes overseas are under pressure and under review, but the group's discount airline, Jetstar, is a success, and Qantas's international routes buttress a dominant domestic market position.
In the same decade that the world's airlines lost a combined $US56 billion, Qantas earned $A5.2 billion. But even then its earnings and shares were volatile. Since 2005, its shares have been as high as $6.05 (early in 2007, when private equity was bidding for the company) and as low as $1.42 (in March 2009 at the depths of the global crisis).
Its earnings in the past six years were $764 million, $480 million, $720 million, $870 million, $100 million and $377 million.
And neither Virgin Blue nor Qantas have been great buy and hold investments. Since Virgin Blue floated at the end of 2003, the S&P/ASX 200 Index has appreciated by 47 per cent, and returned 99 per cent including dividends.
At their current price of 32˘, Virgin Blue shares are down 83 per cent, and down 79 per cent including dividends: Qantas shares are $2.16, down 32 per cent over the same period, and down 4 per cent less including dividends.
My conclusion?
If you aren't a market timer, sit back, enjoy your flights - but think very hard before you buy an airline's shares for the long term.
Malcolm-Maiden
March 26, 2011
Ads by Google
SPARE a thought for Virgin Blue chief executive John Borghetti and his counterpart at Qantas, Alan Joyce. They are running listed companies whose shares are the investment equivalent of plutonium: highly volatile and dangerous in the wrong hands.
Joyce at least has a leading position in his domestic market. That gives him some flexibility to respond to the shocks that roll across the airline industry with monotonous regularity, and he used it this week, by announcing increases of up to $10 on one-way domestic and trans-Tasman flights in response to higher fuel prices.
Virgin Blue has lower market share, fewer well-heeled business travellers and more leisure travellers who are sensitive to price rises. Borghetti is moving the airline up market where he will have greater pricing power, but he's not there yet, and the latest waves to roll over the industry have trashed his company's profit outlook. Virgin made $37 million in the December half, and had seemed set to do better in the June half. Now, it says it will book a full-year loss of between $30 million and $80 million.
Advertisement: Story continues below
Virgin is particularly vulnerable in this market, but the shopping list of reasons Borghetti gave for the profit downgrade really do underline that owning airline shares is an adults-only game. If you aren't a sophisticated investor capable of actively trading the share price volatility that is a hallmark of airline shares everywhere, you really shouldn't have them at all.
Virgin Blue said it was being hit by rising fuel prices as tension in Libya and the Middle East pushed up on the price of oil. It had also been hurt by the Christchurch earthquake, and the floods and cyclone Yasi in Queensland. The fuel price rise will cost Virgin Blue an extra $60 million in the June half. The Christchurch earthquake is expected to cost another $15 million, and cyclone Yasi and the Queensland floods will cost $50 million between them, mainly because they have turned tourists away.
Airline investors need to keep in mind, however, that for airlines, surprises are the norm.
At the beginning of this month for example the International Air Transport Association cut its estimate of global airline industry earnings from $US9.1 billion to $US8.6 billion, well below the $US16 billion earned by the industry worldwide in 2010. The new profit forecast represented a margin of only 1.4 per cent on revenue, and it was out of date less than two weeks later, after Japan's March 11 earthquake.
Japan's crisis isn't enough to knock the global industry into the red this year, and that means that 2011 will actually be relatively good: since the turn of the century, the industry has only been profitable for three years - 2010, and in 2006 and 2007, before the global crisis erupted. Industry losses topped $US10 billion after the September 11 terrorist attack on New York in 2001, and during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Over the decade, net losses globally were about $US56 billion.
The airline industry has in fact probably lost money since its inception, because it almost uniquely is exposed to global shocks, and is uniquely ill-equipped to respond to them.
Airlines operate in a market where price competition is intense, limiting their ability to offset revenue shocks with price rises.
And they are capital intensive, with most of their investment riding on their ability to keep their planes in the air. If they do not do so, the consequences can be devastating.
They are currency exposed, because their planes are US-dollar denominated and because tourist passenger numbers are sensitive to currency movements (the strength of the Australian dollar is the biggest weight on inbound tourism in this market right now, for example), and they are of course fuel intensive, and exposed to a commodity - oil - that is highly susceptible to political tension, as the latest oil price spike demonstrates. The tensions in the Middle East and north Africa were not predicted, and pushed the price of oil up from about $US86 a barrel to about $US105 a barrel in a month.
It's true that airlines can hedge some of these risks. But unexpected turmoil can overrun hedging strategies, as is happening now at Virgin Blue, which had hedged the fuel price to a maximum of just over $US101 a barrel.
If there is an exception to the rule that airlines are the business world's Whac-a-Moles, it's Qantas. Qantas routes overseas are under pressure and under review, but the group's discount airline, Jetstar, is a success, and Qantas's international routes buttress a dominant domestic market position.
In the same decade that the world's airlines lost a combined $US56 billion, Qantas earned $A5.2 billion. But even then its earnings and shares were volatile. Since 2005, its shares have been as high as $6.05 (early in 2007, when private equity was bidding for the company) and as low as $1.42 (in March 2009 at the depths of the global crisis).
Its earnings in the past six years were $764 million, $480 million, $720 million, $870 million, $100 million and $377 million.
And neither Virgin Blue nor Qantas have been great buy and hold investments. Since Virgin Blue floated at the end of 2003, the S&P/ASX 200 Index has appreciated by 47 per cent, and returned 99 per cent including dividends.
At their current price of 32˘, Virgin Blue shares are down 83 per cent, and down 79 per cent including dividends: Qantas shares are $2.16, down 32 per cent over the same period, and down 4 per cent less including dividends.
My conclusion?
If you aren't a market timer, sit back, enjoy your flights - but think very hard before you buy an airline's shares for the long term.
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Accepted they were disclosed by the pollies but the real question is why were they offered, especially in this environment.
Note there was no similar offer to Committee Senators.
Remember, no such thing as a free lunch.
Nothing short of political lobbying probably for all manner of things so why would any politician accept anything they should be smarter than that?
Note there was no similar offer to Committee Senators.
Remember, no such thing as a free lunch.
Nothing short of political lobbying probably for all manner of things so why would any politician accept anything they should be smarter than that?
The gifts are offered. They are accepted.
There is a system in place to declare them. This was used.
All legal if distasteful.
The question is surely not for the MPs but for Joyce...
"What do you hope to gain from spending large sums of money on these gifts?"
There is a system in place to declare them. This was used.
All legal if distasteful.
The question is surely not for the MPs but for Joyce...
"What do you hope to gain from spending large sums of money on these gifts?"
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Dear All
For those of you who have joined me in submitting our concerns to Senator Xenophon and indeed the rest of the Committee - Thank You.
If, like me you asked for your correspondance to be kept confidiential to the Committee then I have a favour to ask. I fear that many of the submissions and emails sent may not be able to be used effectively given that the Senators, in respecting your confidentiality have limited time to personally research and validate some of the statements made and in this regard they do have a team of researchers to assist them.
The Senators will respect your confidentiality however in doing so are not able to seek the help of their team.
I would ask anyone who sent confidential correspondance to either Senator Xenophon or any other member of the committee to send a further email from the same email address authorising access to all correspondance and submissions made by you to any of the committee's technical advisors on the strict proviso that it is de-identified prior to doing so in order that any information as to your identity remains confidential between you and the Senators.
Guys, and girls this is important, we only have one more shot at this - lets make it count!!!
Thank you for your support
The Kelpie
For those of you who have joined me in submitting our concerns to Senator Xenophon and indeed the rest of the Committee - Thank You.
If, like me you asked for your correspondance to be kept confidiential to the Committee then I have a favour to ask. I fear that many of the submissions and emails sent may not be able to be used effectively given that the Senators, in respecting your confidentiality have limited time to personally research and validate some of the statements made and in this regard they do have a team of researchers to assist them.
The Senators will respect your confidentiality however in doing so are not able to seek the help of their team.
I would ask anyone who sent confidential correspondance to either Senator Xenophon or any other member of the committee to send a further email from the same email address authorising access to all correspondance and submissions made by you to any of the committee's technical advisors on the strict proviso that it is de-identified prior to doing so in order that any information as to your identity remains confidential between you and the Senators.
Guys, and girls this is important, we only have one more shot at this - lets make it count!!!
Thank you for your support
The Kelpie
On the subject, the Ethiopian 737 prang at Beirut is interesting:
http://www.lebcaa.com/pdfs/Investiga...s%20Report.pdf
The FO had 673 hrs total and was a "cadet":
Inexperienced captain on jets (had a few thousand bug-smasher, though) and, I suspect, "automation dependent" FO. Note they both did Upset training.
The actual crash sequence is on page 10.
Poor training, auto-dependency and low experience.
http://www.lebcaa.com/pdfs/Investiga...s%20Report.pdf
Instruments meteorological conditions prevailed for the flight, and the flight was on an instrument flight plan. The accident occurred at night in dark lighting conditions with reported isolated cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms in the area.
ET 409 was initially cleared by ATC on a LATEB 1 D SID from Runway 21. Just before take-off, ATC changed the clearance to an “immediate right turn direct Chekka” .
After take-off ATC instructed ET 409 to turn right on a heading of 315° and change to Control 119.3. ET 409 acknowledged the clearance and continued right turn. ATC instructed ET 409 to turn left heading 270°. ET-409 acknowledged.
The Flight continued left turn to heading 270° after acknowledgment but did not maintain that heading. The aircraft continued on southerly track making a sharp left turn until it disappeared from the radar screen and crashed into the Mediterranean Sea at 00:41:30 around 6 NM South West of BRHIA and all occupants were fatally injured.
ET 409 was initially cleared by ATC on a LATEB 1 D SID from Runway 21. Just before take-off, ATC changed the clearance to an “immediate right turn direct Chekka” .
After take-off ATC instructed ET 409 to turn right on a heading of 315° and change to Control 119.3. ET 409 acknowledged the clearance and continued right turn. ATC instructed ET 409 to turn left heading 270°. ET-409 acknowledged.
The Flight continued left turn to heading 270° after acknowledgment but did not maintain that heading. The aircraft continued on southerly track making a sharp left turn until it disappeared from the radar screen and crashed into the Mediterranean Sea at 00:41:30 around 6 NM South West of BRHIA and all occupants were fatally injured.
According to records provided by ET, the First Officer graduated from Ethiopian Aviation Academy on 15 January 2009 and was transferred to the ET Flight Operations Division on 16 January 2009. His initial operation training consisted in part of 80 hours course in Jet Conversion, 60 hours of Basic Instrument Flying (Simulator) completed on 16 March 2009 and Adverse Weather Upset Recovery training done on 12 March 2009. He completed company training on B737-700/800 consisting of 120 hours of ground school, 60 hours of Simulator, 1 hour of base training and 64 hours of route training
The actual crash sequence is on page 10.
Poor training, auto-dependency and low experience.
Last edited by Capn Bloggs; 27th Mar 2011 at 02:44. Reason: added FO's cadet training
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Experience and solutions
I'm amazed its even a debated item.
Goes to show the power, influence and persuasiveness of the stakeholders (KPI lounge aka Bonus shed).
Nobody in their right mind would put their hand up for heart surgery from a recent (18months) high school graduate with no industry experience would they?
How simple is this:
Goes to show the power, influence and persuasiveness of the stakeholders (KPI lounge aka Bonus shed).
Nobody in their right mind would put their hand up for heart surgery from a recent (18months) high school graduate with no industry experience would they?
How simple is this:
- Solid training/education backed with significant industry experience for a job flying RPT.
- fairdinkum approach to fatigue and back of the clock work.
- On the job training/development for +5700kg pilots rather than bare minimum box ticking.
- A law against IR bastardry and B scales.
The Senate inquiry will achieve nothing. You will need Three or or more smoking holes in the ground before the Government acts.
They will then throw the baby out with the bathwater. CASA will end up stronger and with a reinforced mandate. You cannot win.
They will then throw the baby out with the bathwater. CASA will end up stronger and with a reinforced mandate. You cannot win.
Poor training, auto-dependency and low experience.
Despite this it seems everything is hush-hush and Australian pilots never get to hear of these reports. Thank goodness for Pprune contributors who are far more effective in revealing vital flight safety information than government agencies like ATSB. Or that ineffective journal, Flight Safety Australia.
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Experience is Great
No probs.... Heard tonight a VB copilot (well the guy talking on the radio) ask MLB Centre "So how do i turn on the PAL at Canberra??" 
Professional pilot...??.. Time to find a new profession
Professional pilot...??.. Time to find a new profession
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Ego, Self-esteem and HF Reporting
Centaurus,
When we have a system that reinforces professionalism, is intolerant of management interference and is populated by experienced pilots who have the self-esteem and selflessness to report the cock-ups and near misses for the betterment of us all - then we will be on the right track.
When we as a peer group applaud open reporting and ostracise those who lack the courage to put their hand up for the errors that may be the clue that prevents the next accident - then we will start to manage the new and increasing risks.
Unfortunately, the sort of behaviour that is critical to future success is still held hostage to management behaviour that seems to be inadequately constrained by current IR rules and weak representation. There has to be a way that representative groups can regain some balance in the bargaining power needed to ensure that technical and safety issues are properly investigated and the identified risks adequately mitigated, as well as ensuring that procedural fairness is accorded to all.
And I most certainly do not mean that any rebalancing of power comes from precipitate industrial action or unsustainable demands for restrictive work practices unrelated to safety.
Stay Alive,
When we have a system that reinforces professionalism, is intolerant of management interference and is populated by experienced pilots who have the self-esteem and selflessness to report the cock-ups and near misses for the betterment of us all - then we will be on the right track.
When we as a peer group applaud open reporting and ostracise those who lack the courage to put their hand up for the errors that may be the clue that prevents the next accident - then we will start to manage the new and increasing risks.
Unfortunately, the sort of behaviour that is critical to future success is still held hostage to management behaviour that seems to be inadequately constrained by current IR rules and weak representation. There has to be a way that representative groups can regain some balance in the bargaining power needed to ensure that technical and safety issues are properly investigated and the identified risks adequately mitigated, as well as ensuring that procedural fairness is accorded to all.
And I most certainly do not mean that any rebalancing of power comes from precipitate industrial action or unsustainable demands for restrictive work practices unrelated to safety.
Stay Alive,
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CASA, ATSB, AD's and other things
Centaurus - Just cast your mind back a little and look at Whyalla Air as an example of the regulator getting it wrong. Remember in this case, the argument did not go to crankshaft cracking/ metallurgical problems, but a fanciful new "deposit syndrome".
Whyalla occurred, there was an ATSB inquiry, there was a coroners inquiry [interesting reading - http://www.airsafety.com.au/whyalla/d724find.htm], ABC report - The World Today - Coroner overturns previous Whyalla airlines crash findings, there was a press release about the TIO-540 crankshafts which failed and the Senate enquiry [ http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate...ee/s7228.pdf]:
Then no action by CASA to restore / compensate Whyalla for CASA's action to ground Whyalla Airlines for something it did not do.
My question is about how ATSB got it so wrong and the subsequent report [https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/24343/...157-A_001.pdf] and then the justification [http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/27767/ar2007053.pdf] for methodology and a dismissal of the MZK accident, saying that the Coroner liked their report for Lockhart River.
Centaurus - Just cast your mind back a little and look at Whyalla Air as an example of the regulator getting it wrong. Remember in this case, the argument did not go to crankshaft cracking/ metallurgical problems, but a fanciful new "deposit syndrome".
Whyalla occurred, there was an ATSB inquiry, there was a coroners inquiry [interesting reading - http://www.airsafety.com.au/whyalla/d724find.htm], ABC report - The World Today - Coroner overturns previous Whyalla airlines crash findings, there was a press release about the TIO-540 crankshafts which failed and the Senate enquiry [ http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate...ee/s7228.pdf]:
Then no action by CASA to restore / compensate Whyalla for CASA's action to ground Whyalla Airlines for something it did not do.
My question is about how ATSB got it so wrong and the subsequent report [https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/24343/...157-A_001.pdf] and then the justification [http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/27767/ar2007053.pdf] for methodology and a dismissal of the MZK accident, saying that the Coroner liked their report for Lockhart River.
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According to ‘Australian Aviation’ magazine April 2011 p.43 under the article Where next for Qantas, written by Geoffrey Thomas, states that Qantas pilots, ‘some of whom earn close to $500 000!’
I would like to understand where this figure came from Geoffrey. What factual document have you seen that indicates this? I would be surprised if even the Chief Pilot or some very senior training Captains receive 2/3rd of this figure.
If this information is correct, provide it please. Otherwise a retraction written in the next issue of Australian Aviation magazine should be forthcoming.
To me, this has discredited this magazine, unless proven otherwise of course! Just remember, lots of people in the industry subscribe to this magazine! Proof please.....waiting!
No wonder jobs are going overseas Geoffrey!
I would like to understand where this figure came from Geoffrey. What factual document have you seen that indicates this? I would be surprised if even the Chief Pilot or some very senior training Captains receive 2/3rd of this figure.
If this information is correct, provide it please. Otherwise a retraction written in the next issue of Australian Aviation magazine should be forthcoming.
To me, this has discredited this magazine, unless proven otherwise of course! Just remember, lots of people in the industry subscribe to this magazine! Proof please.....waiting!
No wonder jobs are going overseas Geoffrey!