Gatwick-3

[CabinCrewe]

I suspect hand me downs as-per.
Any ‘newer’ 777s to LGW or some of the oldest 787s at a push.
I cannot honestly see a brand new subfleet order exclusively for LGW.
Thats assuming LGW longhaul survives (really) long term… I have my doubts.

[772]

Originally Posted by CabinCrewe

I suspect hand me downs as-per.
Any ‘newer’ 777s to LGW or some of the oldest 787s at a push.
I cannot honestly see a brand new subfleet order exclusively for LGW.
Thats assuming LGW longhaul survives (really) long term… I have my doubts.

why the doubts over BA LGW longhaul in the long term?

the current 777s, refreshed and densified in 2018/19 are due to leave the fleet in or close to 2029

be interesting to see newer the time what the plan is. The 788s of course by then will be 15ish years old, 12 in the fleet, seems a pretty good fit age and fleet size wise but 2029 is so far away it’s too early and easy to assume anything now. Also the -8s are three class and have 35 J seats again a nice fit with the current 32J config. Only 214 seats though Vs the 330ish currently at LGW and the loads pre covid and of late suggest 214 is too low.

the 773s would need a reconfigure for LGW as no need for F and the J cabin is way too big for LGW

Nice to chew the fat but far to far away to have any idea

[brian_dromey]

The 777s at LGW were not hand-me-downs though, so I don't see why a replacement fleet would necessarily be? I would be fairly confident about the long-term prospects of long haul at Gatwick, it was relaunched fairly early in the pandemic and continues to fly. The 777-200ERs will need to be phased out over the next decade, the A350-900 is the probably the closest direct replacement so I would not bet against it. The 777-8 is closer in capacity, but its enormous range apparently makes it heavy, the 777-9 is larger again than the 777-300, so probably too much capacity.

The 788s seem to have a great place opening up new routes from LHR to the US and the -9s were useful in Asia, at least historically. So I dont think hand-me-downs will be forthcoming. Move the A380s round the M25?

[vectisman]

Originally Posted by CabinCrewe

I suspect hand me downs as-per.
Any ‘newer’ 777s to LGW or some of the oldest 787s at a push.
I cannot honestly see a brand new subfleet order exclusively for LGW.
Thats assuming LGW longhaul survives (really) long term… I have my doubts.

With the third runway even further away at London Heathrow plus the increasing costs to airlines using that airport I believe
BA long haul at Gatwick is secure. Indeed I can see further expansion. Long haul loads from Gatwick are up to 100% with the J and Premium economy cabins doing
very well.
In my opinion you are being a tad pessimistic.

[JW95]

Originally Posted by brian_dromey

The 777s at LGW were not hand-me-downs though, so I don't see why a replacement fleet would necessarily be? I would be fairly confident about the long-term prospects of long haul at Gatwick, it was relaunched fairly early in the pandemic and continues to fly. The 777-200ERs will need to be phased out over the next decade, the A350-900 is the probably the closest direct replacement so I would not bet against it. The 777-8 is closer in capacity, but its enormous range apparently makes it heavy, the 777-9 is larger again than the 777-300, so probably too much capacity.

The 788s seem to have a great place opening up new routes from LHR to the US and the -9s were useful in Asia, at least historically. So I dont think hand-me-downs will be forthcoming. Move the A380s round the M25?

Very much agree with you. I think the A359 could make a good fit for LGW in terms of a direct 1-1 replacement for the 772s, although I'm unsure whether the A350-900 is able to accommodate the numbers as currently seen in the densified 772s? Surely BA wouldn't try to replicate 3-4-3 Y in the A359 as in the 777 currently, as that would be really pushing it. Alternatively, they could go with more 788s/9s, with the advantage that current 777 pilots at LGW could seamlessly transfer onto the replacement fleet with little/no training? Although as mentioned, capacity per aircraft would drop pretty drastically. They could do what VS have done with the leisure fleet and go with the A350-1000 with a densified configuration.

[JW95]

Originally Posted by vectisman

With the third runway even further away at London Heathrow plus the increasing costs to airlines using that airport I believe
BA long haul at Gatwick is secure. Indeed I can see further expansion. Long haul loads from Gatwick are up to 100% with the J and Premium economy cabins doing
very well.
In my opinion you are being a tad pessimistic.

Yes, I've no doubt we will see BA gradually expanding from LGW going forwards, particularly as leisure long haul is now bouncing back. BKK has already been rumoured and discussed elsewhere in the thread, and no doubt BA will be watching Scoot to see how successful they play out at LGW. With charges rising at LHR, I'm sure other long haul operators will be looking at LGW as a viable alternative.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

We all seem to be assuming costs won't be going up at LGW? The balance sheet is a car crash with LGW being the worst affected of our major airports. BA actually do have a good history of adding brand new long haul metal at LGW, G-VIIO/P/R have been LGW based since delivery for the most part and the later B744s arrived at LGW via Cambridge. There's a lot in flux at the mo, am not really convinced Scoot will do well, and BA may move BKK to LGW but on doing so will leave a fair amount of premium traffic to Thai at LHR. Every route BA moved in the past, the African and South American long hauls lost a % of premium traffic as they had a competitor who stayed at LHR. With Thai still in market, I wonder if BKK needs to stay put? Doha is a different beast as QR's LHR ops compliment BA's LGW service, they're partners.

[vectisman]

'We all seem to be assuming costs won't be going up at LGW? The balance sheet is a car crash with LGW being the worst affected of our major airports.'

I agree costs may rise at Gatwick, but it will remain a cheaper airport to operate from than Heathrow.
As leisure travel appears to be recovering faster than business travel, hopefully Gatwick is in a position to show
a positive recovery in Summer 2022.
Heathrow is also not without its balance sheet issues.

[Flying Wild]

Originally Posted by gdiddy

So from next Summer Wizz will have these routes operating from Gatwick:

Austria
Vienna - Daily *
Bulgaria
Sofia - Daily (3x Daily @LTN)
Cyprus
Larnaca - Daily (Daily @LTN)
Greece
Athens - Daily *
Chania (Crete) - 4x Weekly
Mykonos - 4x Weekly
Hungary
Budapest - Daily (3x Daily @LTN)
Israel
Tel Aviv - Daily (5x Weekly @LTN)
Italy
Bari - 2x Weekly *
Catania (Sicily) - 3x Weekly *
Milan MXP - Daily *
Naples - 4x Weekly *
Rome FCO - Daily *
Montenegro
Podgorica - 4x Weekly
Poland
Krakow - Daily (2x Daily @LTN)
Portugal
Faro - Daily *
Madeira - 2x Weekly
Romania
Bucharest OTP - Daily (3x Daily @LTN & 3x Weekly @SEN)
Spain
Malaga - 2x Daily (Daily @LTN)
Lanzorote - 3x Weekly *
Palma de Mallorca - Daily (Daily @LTN)
Tenerife - 5x Weekly (5x Weekly @LTN)

* = Routes moved from Luton

With the above programme from Wizz, would there be any room left for Jet2 at LGW assuming they could get slots? The ops so far this winter seem to have generated passenger interest in the product. I'd be surprised if they didn't try to get in there, but how could they do so?

[772]

Originally Posted by Flying Wild

With the above programme from Wizz, would there be any room left for Jet2 at LGW assuming they could get slots? The ops so far this winter seem to have generated passenger interest in the product. I'd be surprised if they didn't try to get in there, but how could they do so?

interesting question regards Jet2.

their winter operations appear to have been successful but I think they have (not entirely but largely) filled a gap left by BA this winter, pre covid (and I would suspect winter 21) BA operated ski and Lapland flights, this winter without them I think LS have been smart plugging the gap but moving forwards, with LS having such a strong operation further North in the U.K. and with strong competition at LGW from U2, BA, TOM and W6 I’m not sure it would be wise for LS to try and break into the LGW market.

don’t get me wrong I think LS have a very good offering especially with jet2 holidays and could do well at LGW but it could be a difficult market to enter as the incumbent airlines may react to any new entrants.

I hope LS do try and enter the market however would add some more competition and variety at LGW

[Vokes55]

Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot

We all seem to be assuming costs won't be going up at LGW? The balance sheet is a car crash with LGW being the worst affected of our major airports. BA actually do have a good history of adding brand new long haul metal at LGW, G-VIIO/P/R have been LGW based since delivery for the most part and the later B744s arrived at LGW via Cambridge. There's a lot in flux at the mo, am not really convinced Scoot will do well, and BA may move BKK to LGW but on doing so will leave a fair amount of premium traffic to Thai at LHR. Every route BA moved in the past, the African and South American long hauls lost a % of premium traffic as they had a competitor who stayed at LHR. With Thai still in market, I wonder if BKK needs to stay put? Doha is a different beast as QR's LHR ops compliment BA's LGW service, they're partners.

Bangkok is (normally) high volume and low yield. Thai is a competitor, but most of the competition came from the 6-7 ME airlines that had about 20 flights a day to both London and Bangkok. BA gave up trying to compete for higher yields on that route a long time ago, which is why it ended up on the dog of the fleet with mediocre flight times. If (big if, I agree) Scoot stick around, it may prompt BA to move it in to LGW. Using the reconfigured 777 would also be both a product upgrade and a capacity increase on their pre-Covid offering. As it is, they’ve binned BKK altogether until Winter 22.

Originally Posted by Flying Wild

With the above programme from Wizz, would there be any room left for Jet2 at LGW assuming they could get slots? The ops so far this winter seem to have generated passenger interest in the product. I'd be surprised if they didn't try to get in there, but how could they do so?

There’s no chance of EZY, BA or TOM letting Jet2 in. Ever.

[Vokes55]

Originally Posted by 772

interesting question regards Jet2.

their winter operations appear to have been successful but I think they have (not entirely but largely) filled a gap left by BA this winter, pre covid (and I would suspect winter 21) BA operated ski and Lapland flights, this winter without them I think LS have been smart plugging the gap but moving forwards, with LS having such a strong operation further North in the U.K. and with strong competition at LGW from U2, BA, TOM and W6 I’m not sure it would be wise for LS to try and break into the LGW market.

The Jet2 flights were charter flights operated on behalf of tour operators that tend to go to the cheapest bidder. In the past, these flights were operated by the likes of Germania, Small Planet and Enter Air. I doubt Jet2 even made any money on them.

[brian_dromey]

Originally Posted by JW95

Very much agree with you. I think the A359 could make a good fit for LGW in terms of a direct 1-1 replacement for the 772s, although I'm unsure whether the A350-900 is able to accommodate the numbers as currently seen in the densified 772s? Surely BA wouldn't try to replicate 3-4-3 Y in the A359 as in the 777 currently, as that would be really pushing it. Alternatively, they could go with more 788s/9s, with the advantage that current 777 pilots at LGW could seamlessly transfer onto the replacement fleet with little/no training? Although as mentioned, capacity per aircraft would drop pretty drastically. They could do what VS have done with the leisure fleet and go with the A350-1000 with a densified configuration.

Iberia are flying their A359s in a 31/24/293 layout compared to 32/52/252 on the 777s, thats 3-3-3 with a 31" pitch in Y. I would expect BA to sacrifice some Economy seats for Premium Economy, but they still might end up with one or two dozen more seats overall. The A350 is a bit larger than the 787 and airlines tend to configure it at a higher density than the 787. I guess thats why the 787/350 combination is fairly common in many airline fleets. With the A350 and 787 already in the fleet at LHR anything could happen. Its even more unpredictable when the wider IAG landscape is taken into account. Pound for pound the A359 would be the closest direct replacement, if that is what BA want for their 777-200 fleet.

[vectisman]

I see that Jazzera Airways are ceasing Heathrow operations citing high airport charges as part of the reason from January 6th. I wonder if they will return to Gatwick where I believe they still hold slots.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Do we have a link on the Jazeera issue? Nothing on google or twitter but bookings have been closed. Challenging making mid haul LOCO work in a COVID world, Kuwait still has a 10 day quarantine on arrival so more indicative of being squeezed out of the market via COVID otherwise they would have jumped ship to LGW or STN ref fees. It's also a twice weekly night stopper rather than a daily spin which adds to the cost burden.

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-ad...virus-covid-19
"You will have to quarantine at home for ten days on arrival, although quarantine can end if the PCR test carried out 72 hours after your arrival proves negative."

[vectisman]

I think this is the link. Hopefully allowed to post it here.

Twitter

[vectisman]

Twitter

[Buster the Bear]

The massive increase in flights by Wizz will yield an additional 3.4m seats to their existing operation annually.

[JW95]

South terminal reopening and airline moves 2022

Now that we have confirmation of BA building up their LGW presence again with short haul returning, no doubt GIP are beginning to ready the South Terminal for a reopening soon? Does anyone know if all airlines that were originally based in the South (British Airways, Ryanair, Wizz, Turkish Airlines et al.) are intending to move back or will some remain in North Terminal long term? BA is an obvious candidate to relocate back to the South, given that their lounges are there, but was wondering what FR, W6, VY, TK and even Scoot are planning on doing once LGW reverts to dual terminal operations?

[True Blue]

I see flights appearing on arrivals and departures, SAS to Copenhagen. Showing on arrivals and departures twice daily. New intended flights?