Manchester-3
Which bit of Ayrshire is local to LCY?
Sorry but you were flat out wrong on your point, the WCML rebuild had a massive effect at the time on the domestic market and your point about VLM seeking exciting new opportunities elsewhere because of slot scarcity doesn't stand up. The WCML impact on MAN-London was profound, indeed there's no point to point justification for MAN-Central London at all now. Only points collectors chasing status go through that level of Hell on BA now.
MAN-LGW survived longer as it was useful for the South Coast and for feeding BA's long haul but the business model changed at LGW and sun routes took the focus. APD made things less attractive in market and that's not gotten any better since the route was dropped. Classic slot sitter alas, unless BA are going to re-set LGW and refocus.
Doomed I say. Do we think they're going to have a fair crack at helping feed Aer Lingus long haul here? Dare we hope?
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BACsuperVC10
But doesn't all that take time and expense as well as the hassle of lugging your suitcase (assuming you can fit it on the West Coast lines train) from Manchester to Gatwick. As an able bodied person having done it it's a real slog. A disabled person I can imagine might find this even more challenging.
A connection between MAN and LGW sounds like a great idea in my opinion.
But doesn't all that take time and expense as well as the hassle of lugging your suitcase (assuming you can fit it on the West Coast lines train) from Manchester to Gatwick. As an able bodied person having done it it's a real slog. A disabled person I can imagine might find this even more challenging.
A connection between MAN and LGW sounds like a great idea in my opinion.
OK, Skip. I'd always presume an aviation analyst to enjoy a good grasp of aviation economics. But perhaps over the years you've become more seduced by cheerleading for Heathrow rather than remaining true to rational evaluation of the wider market? I shall address the points you have made against me in turn:
First up, have WCML rail improvements influenced air travel demand between MAN and the London Airports? Absolutely YES. Now show me where I argued to the contrary. Oh, that's right, I never claimed any such thing, did I?
My postings have made absolutely no mention of VLM at all, still less discussed their strategic preferences at a company level. So I am "flat out wrong" on a point I never raised at all. You are trying to reinvent the narrative.
Another straw man. I've made no argument one way or the other on this topic. Do you ever read what people actually write before mounting that high horse of yours?
Well at least we can agree on something. I outlined exactly this in posts 76 and 95 on this thread. Though I suspect that your true motive is talk down any potential innovation which is not supportive of LHR's best interests.
Now here are the points I actually did make. As opposed to the ones you wish to plant on me with your alternative narrative.
1) At high-demand single-runway airports where peak-time runway slots are fully-subscribed (such as pre-covid LGW and LCY), less profitable services inevitably get squeezed out in favour of more lucrative opportunities over time (and not necessarily by the same carrier - I never suggested that). This is aviation economics 101. I'd be very wary of anybody claiming to be an aviation analyst who fails to comprehend this.
2) The viability of air services is dependent on a whole range of factors. Numerous contributing influences must be taken into consideration when evaluating whether to back or withdraw from an existing scheduled service. Good aviation analysts understand these complexities.
First up, have WCML rail improvements influenced air travel demand between MAN and the London Airports? Absolutely YES. Now show me where I argued to the contrary. Oh, that's right, I never claimed any such thing, did I?
your point about VLM seeking exciting new opportunities elsewhere
indeed there's no point to point justification for MAN-Central London at all now.
Classic slot sitter alas, unless BA are going to re-set LGW and refocus.
Now here are the points I actually did make. As opposed to the ones you wish to plant on me with your alternative narrative.
1) At high-demand single-runway airports where peak-time runway slots are fully-subscribed (such as pre-covid LGW and LCY), less profitable services inevitably get squeezed out in favour of more lucrative opportunities over time (and not necessarily by the same carrier - I never suggested that). This is aviation economics 101. I'd be very wary of anybody claiming to be an aviation analyst who fails to comprehend this.
2) The viability of air services is dependent on a whole range of factors. Numerous contributing influences must be taken into consideration when evaluating whether to back or withdraw from an existing scheduled service. Good aviation analysts understand these complexities.
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DomyDom
I've not found so, firstly I've got to get to Manchester Airport, I do don't live in Manchester, so that is time and expensive. If I go by train I can get to Runcorn Station in 15 mins, no check in required, no battle to get through security 2hours on the train and I'm in Euston. I have a pull along bag like most people do now, short walk to St Pancras then train to Gatwick, alight there and your right in the terminal. I've done the say for Heathrow too, its easier than flying from Manchester particularly if you don't want terminal 5.
I've not found so, firstly I've got to get to Manchester Airport, I do don't live in Manchester, so that is time and expensive. If I go by train I can get to Runcorn Station in 15 mins, no check in required, no battle to get through security 2hours on the train and I'm in Euston. I have a pull along bag like most people do now, short walk to St Pancras then train to Gatwick, alight there and your right in the terminal. I've done the say for Heathrow too, its easier than flying from Manchester particularly if you don't want terminal 5.
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easyflyer83
Whilst some of the stopping ones are upwards of an hour, there are a number of trains per hour that are a little over 40 minutes. The walk to St Pancras and getting on a train there, as opposed to the Tube to Victoria, would always be my preferred option, unless it was chucking it down outside.
Whilst some of the stopping ones are upwards of an hour, there are a number of trains per hour that are a little over 40 minutes. The walk to St Pancras and getting on a train there, as opposed to the Tube to Victoria, would always be my preferred option, unless it was chucking it down outside.
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Virgin
Apologies if this has been mentioned and I've missed it, but what aircraft are VS using to MCO for S21? I've heard rumours of 789 and A35K. Also, do we know where the A330s are flying to next summer?
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The met. vis was 500m and although the RVR was >1,000m around that time, they were giving 8 okta cloud at 100ft. I imagine this particular flight was only Cat 1, unless excessive holding was a problem which seems unlikely.
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Sioltach Dubh Glas
I would imagine a lot hinges on the success of the vaccine. If it is successful I could see demand picking right back up and them potentially needing the capacity of the A350’s or a double daily A330 (maybe one 200 and one 300) maybe not every day of the week but certainly on a few especially in peak summer. If the vaccine isn’t as successful then I would imagine an A330. It must be difficult to schedule at the minute with the success of the vaccine in the UK and the USA needing to be considered before anything is decided.
I could see it being a really last minute decision with constant changes being made throughout the summer where it may just be pot luck what you end up on with VS, especially on the leisure routes.
I would imagine a lot hinges on the success of the vaccine. If it is successful I could see demand picking right back up and them potentially needing the capacity of the A350’s or a double daily A330 (maybe one 200 and one 300) maybe not every day of the week but certainly on a few especially in peak summer. If the vaccine isn’t as successful then I would imagine an A330. It must be difficult to schedule at the minute with the success of the vaccine in the UK and the USA needing to be considered before anything is decided.
I could see it being a really last minute decision with constant changes being made throughout the summer where it may just be pot luck what you end up on with VS, especially on the leisure routes.
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I think people possibly are getting ahead of themselves. It is going to take the best part of a year to get substantial vaccine effect. Things are not going to return to “normal” by S21. For instance in Hong Kong they do not expect to roll out vaccines until 2022.
The Florida market will be slow to recover IMO. The US has banned cruises exceeding seven days in duration for Summer 2021, and it is likely that a very reduced number of those will operate. Theme parks are in full social distancing mode which severely limits capacity. And, of course, the USA is struggling with Covid again heading into it's Winter peak, though Florida's southerly latitude may help to keep numbers lower there than in the snowy northern states. Add to all this a contentious political transition too. 2021 long-haul will be a tough market generally. I'd expect budget leisure short-haul to come back much more strongly at first, provided that national entry restrictions, quarantines and kneejerk rule changes are not part of the picture. 'Keep it simple' will be the key to trouble-free leisure travel in 2021.
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HKGBOY
Not sure that's quite right, certainly as far as Europe, Caribbean islands and many Far Eastern countries/Aus/NZ are concerned. If we assume that the UK/ Europe are vaccinated by the summer and countries and airlines operate a vaccine certificate system I can see things getting significantly better in summer 21. Most of the Caribbean and Australia and New Zealand have a much smaller problem anyway. Yes, the US because of it's size and the way the pandemic has been mismanaged will probably take longer but Biden has made it clear CV19 is a top priority so I think they will not be too far behind.
Not sure that's quite right, certainly as far as Europe, Caribbean islands and many Far Eastern countries/Aus/NZ are concerned. If we assume that the UK/ Europe are vaccinated by the summer and countries and airlines operate a vaccine certificate system I can see things getting significantly better in summer 21. Most of the Caribbean and Australia and New Zealand have a much smaller problem anyway. Yes, the US because of it's size and the way the pandemic has been mismanaged will probably take longer but Biden has made it clear CV19 is a top priority so I think they will not be too far behind.
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Again, I appreciate the optimism Dommy. However, simply to manufacture significant vaccine doses and inject twice is no mean feat in high numbers.
HKG is looking at 2022 - so I would not be expecting Cathay back anytime soon in 2021 if this is true: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...FS9XADYUTfSapg
I do agree with Ozzy though, shorthaul will make some kind of recovery reasonably quickly, but UK-US will not be so easy, for the reasons Ozzy outlined. We don't know what restrictions will be in place and it will require cross border co-operation, which so far hasn't really materialised. This country still hasn't got to grips with any significant airport testing let alone organising some kind of certificate vaccine passport system. I would just err on some kind of caution on the optimism, the fact that Virgin & Aer Lingus have lots of US slots doesn't mean to say they will actually materialise.
I want to get back to HKG ASAP but not being a resident it's not possible. In fact even now they are talking of restricting quotas for returning students who are resident due to a lack of hotels in HKG that have signed up to the quarantine regime. In HKG 14 days stricht confinement is mandatory if you are negative tested at the airport. If you are positive you are shipped off to a remote government facility.
HKG is looking at 2022 - so I would not be expecting Cathay back anytime soon in 2021 if this is true: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...FS9XADYUTfSapg
I do agree with Ozzy though, shorthaul will make some kind of recovery reasonably quickly, but UK-US will not be so easy, for the reasons Ozzy outlined. We don't know what restrictions will be in place and it will require cross border co-operation, which so far hasn't really materialised. This country still hasn't got to grips with any significant airport testing let alone organising some kind of certificate vaccine passport system. I would just err on some kind of caution on the optimism, the fact that Virgin & Aer Lingus have lots of US slots doesn't mean to say they will actually materialise.
I want to get back to HKG ASAP but not being a resident it's not possible. In fact even now they are talking of restricting quotas for returning students who are resident due to a lack of hotels in HKG that have signed up to the quarantine regime. In HKG 14 days stricht confinement is mandatory if you are negative tested at the airport. If you are positive you are shipped off to a remote government facility.
