OK, Skip. I'd always presume an aviation analyst to enjoy a good grasp of aviation economics. But perhaps over the years you've become more seduced by cheerleading for Heathrow rather than remaining true to rational evaluation of the wider market? I shall address the points you have made against me in turn:
First up, have WCML rail improvements influenced air travel demand between MAN and the London Airports?
Absolutely YES. Now show me where I argued to the contrary. Oh, that's right, I never claimed any such thing, did I?
your point about VLM seeking exciting new opportunities elsewhere
My postings have made
absolutely no mention of VLM at all, still less discussed their strategic preferences at a company level. So I am "flat out wrong" on a point I never raised at all. You are trying to reinvent the narrative.
indeed there's no point to point justification for MAN-Central London at all now.
Another straw man. I've made no argument one way or the other on this topic. Do you ever read what people actually write before mounting that high horse of yours?
Classic slot sitter alas, unless BA are going to re-set LGW and refocus.
Well at least we can agree on something. I outlined exactly this in posts 76 and 95 on this thread. Though I suspect that your true motive is talk down any potential innovation which is not supportive of LHR's best interests.
Now here are the points I actually did make. As opposed to the ones you wish to plant on me with your alternative narrative.
1) At high-demand single-runway airports where peak-time runway slots are fully-subscribed (such as pre-covid LGW and LCY), less profitable services inevitably get squeezed out in favour of more lucrative opportunities over time (and not necessarily by the same carrier - I never suggested that). This is aviation economics 101. I'd be very wary of anybody claiming to be an aviation analyst who fails to comprehend this.
2) The viability of air services is dependent on a whole range of factors. Numerous contributing influences must be taken into consideration when evaluating whether to back or withdraw from an existing scheduled service. Good aviation analysts understand these complexities.