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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 12th Mar 2020, 23:31
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I also question the open borders we seem to still have with the world but when I watch the live Prime Minister updates flanked with his scientific advisers they give compelling reasons why they are right.

The Irish Republic have shut down schools etc for two weeks so then what? There will then be an extension after extension and still the population will catch it because the virus will still be out there when the ban is lifted.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 00:29
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Originally Posted by LTNman
I also question the open borders we seem to still have with the world but when I watch the live Prime Minister updates flanked with his scientific advisers they give compelling reasons why they are right.
They have to give the air of confidence even though they will have diffeent ideas.


The Irish Republic have shut down schools etc for two weeks so then what? There will then be an extension after extension and still the population will catch it because the virus will still be out there when the ban is lifted.
Irish Republic will not be opening schools this side of Easter, add in 2 weeks extended from March, then Easter holidays and they are at 3rd week of April. Irish secondary schools close at end of May and primary school at end of June. In Foot and Mouth disease issue 16-17 years ago they got everybody involved in ensuring they knew how bad it could be.

The delay is to stretch out as long as possible possible infection because then medical teams have a longer time to cope rather than a massive upswing where triage comes in abruptly where if over 60's it is just passive care until you die or recover. Medical teams cannot go 24/7, they will get infected also so need to look at resources you have and manage them.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 00:56
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The Brits are about to discover the price for our govt not locking the country down
This thinking presumes that locking the country down completely actually achieves the most beneficial 'big picture' outcome. Delaying the inevitable onset of C-19 too long comes with unintended consequences.

We need to think this through logically. The objective is not to delay the spread of C-19 indefinitely. It is to try and induce an extended flattened peak of cases through the Summer months at a manageable rate. This brings several advantages. Firstly, the younger and fitter demographic are best equipped to fight off the infection independently in warmer Summer conditions. Secondly, the NHS is less under pressure from more familiar admissions in Summer than it is during Winter months when regular Winter flu (with broadly similar mortality rates and risk-groups) does its worst. Hence more beds / staff / resources available to cope with C-19 cases in Summer. Even the most vulnerable groups have enhanced chances of successful recovery in Summer conditions as opposed to Winter. A phenomenally successful campaign of containment which pushes the main C-19 onset back to November would be a disaster in reality. Peak-infection during Winter months must be avoided. So - whilst the politicians can't admit as much - getting a wave of early cases out of the way in Spring followed by a hopefully steady flow into the Summer months is the best way to manage an infection which an estimated 80% of us are fated to face anyway.

All terrible news for the airline industry, of course. And for leisure travel generally. But bigger concerns have to take priority. In the longer term it is hoped that an effective vaccine can be formulated. But finding an effective treatment and then producing it in sufficient volume will be a very challenging endeavour. We may not achieve this in time for Winter '20/'21.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 01:10
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Will Norwegian survive? And Alitalia for that matter...
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 01:15
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Alitalia could survive WW3, WW4 and WW5 given it's record.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 06:18
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Don't be too sure about that the Italian economy will divert its cash into fighting this virus not to a flagging airline that's cancelled most of its flights.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:46
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This seems to be the last straw for Alitalia. Their government gave them a huge financial support last year, but with all this scenario, they wont be in the capacity to do it once again in such a short time, specially when they need to prioritize their spending to more critical entities and local governments.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:01
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Regardless of the money, I don't think anyone at a senior level in the Italian Govt has time to think about Alitalia - efforts will likely be focussed entirely elsewhere
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:29
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So much for a common approach from the EU. 27 countries and 27 different reactions and plans. Countries closing borders with each other. Every country thinking about itself.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:06
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Every National Govts 1st responsibility is to its citizens first.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:07
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Not according to the EU press conference I was watching. United front? Yeah right
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:12
  #292 (permalink)  
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All politics is local. They will coordinate but all Govts will act for their own population first. No different from Scottish doing it in UK irrespective of what London says.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:17
  #293 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by racedo
Every National Govts 1st responsibility is to its citizens first.
It should be but I suspect every Government looks after itself first.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:21
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OzzyOzBorn Yes, it is a valid approach. In six months time we'll know if it was the right one!

I certainly understand reluctance to go to extremes but most politicians do not like people pointing at them and screaming 'You killed my granny'. There will be plenty of opportunity for that and the tabloids will lap it up.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 14:07
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From the Norwegian thread :

Its grim times for everyone in this industry with the possible exception of the Freight Dogs .
Sort of associated, but after 9/11 when passenger volume fell well away, the same happened with air freight volume too, both belly and full freighter. This was somewhat perplexing as freight was not worried about flying, and there was little equivalent economic downturn. I don't think it was ever satisfactorily explained.

Regarding belly freight, that is going to be impacted with the elimination of flights. All those Chinese imports, particularly at the higher tech end, pharmaceuticals, etc, even if shipped in bulk by container by sea, are dependent for product support and rush orders on air freight, much of whose capacity may be disorganised or lost. I was anticipating that as China gets economically back on its feet, as seems to be starting to happen, there might actually be an air freight surge to Europe/N America etc to recover supply lines.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 14:16
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Not an unreasonable viewpoint.

As China shuts for New Year the view from many end customers is that you lose a month between shut down and start up, with stuff on the water from Mid Jan then it would only be hitting ports circa late Feb which ultimately means it is only about now when into factories / stores. In addition many places over order because of the Chinese down time so orders wold be well over normal. Therefore assumption is that stock would be up to mid April before post New Year stock is in.

Biggest questio is whether start up is really happening and how long will it take items to be shipped via sea. If economic slowdown in west continues then inventories could be back to normal by June. At the higher end you still air freight because of value to weight.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 16:18
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Interesting that according to the WHO the daily cases outside of China are still above 15%
UK daily increase currently at 20%
USA daily increase currently trending at over 40% per day..... that could be tricky!!

Really interesting if you haven't looked at these: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

With global borders shutting down and almost everyone having to self isolate for 14 days on arrival if they are flying then I think by Monday 16th the world airline landscape is going to be very different again.

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 17:20
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Chinese domestic airline travel continues to increase. Was on an absolutely jam packed flight today between two lesser known cities. The whole system is working towards the greater cause with temperature checks, a barcode system linked to an app which tracks your whereabouts and knows if you've been in a high risk area and much more. Every single person wears a mask and just gets on with it. Meanwhile d*ckheads at home are scrambling and brawling over loo rolls and hand gel. Talk about third world!
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:11
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UK has always been lead by the Daily Fail, The Scum, and other vile nasty pieces of gutter press. This is why we've got this going on - they are causing panic for no reason for a cheap headline the following day. Hence why we've got Boris "clueless" Johnson and his vile government. These nasty scum bag pieces of press led a campaign full of lies against Corbyn and Labour. Brainwashed the nation. They'd certainly be a target of mine if i was to ever become Prime Minister.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 21:22
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You will find that many would disagree with you. But this thread isn't the place to argue party politics.
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