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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 10th Mar 2020, 11:31
  #241 (permalink)  
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The reason teh virus spread in China was because Chinese Govt did not do lockdown not because they did it.

Wuhan could have been locked down 2 weeks earlier and stopped it there and then. They didn't and with millions going back home for New Year holidays the virus went with them. Baidu maps correlated the movement of people from Wuhan and the increase in cases, further correlated by Chinese mobile phone companies.

The idea that supposed "Liberal Democracy" states willnot take specific action is laughable, they will but when it suits not when needed. No different from anywhere else.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 11:36
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur...ustom2=twitter

Austria is closing its boarder with Italy
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 12:23
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Jet2 cancelling all flights from the UK to Italy.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co....tbreak-2445228
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 12:47
  #244 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Expressflight
I think your 'understanding' is a little off the mark. According to WHO this type of virus usually gives 18 to 24 months of immunity, although it's obviously too early to be certain of that in the case of Covid-19. But I think to say, as you did, "You can catch it over and over again" is irresponsible.
Yet Japan has reported reinfections and I know I read of others so not so irresponsible
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 12:59
  #245 (permalink)  
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https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/r...aly/?market=en

Ryanair suspends all Italian flights
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 14:28
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Spain has just shut the door on ALL Italian flights from midnight tomorrow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/busi...ost_type=share
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 14:43
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Sorry who? Which airline is this?


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Old 10th Mar 2020, 15:00
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And on the 4th April (start of Easter) all will be right with Italy. I am thinking summer at the earliest if not longer and then there will still be no bookings as the public are spooked.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 16:05
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So which airlines could handle say 3 months lost bookings spread over six months? This seems a likely scenario at present
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 16:37
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Cash Flow is the major thing - even the biggies likes EZY and RYR can get very hurt or go boom or bust just because of the lack of cash flow
Many airlines nowadays have few or no assets as a/c are leased.

One saving grace if fuel prices stay very low and Govt's perhaps do something about easing passenger taxes and APD (but then the Greens will kick off)
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 17:38
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Originally Posted by ZFT
Yet Japan has reported reinfections and I know I read of others so not so irresponsible
If you read up a little on the case of the one Japanese woman (yes it was just one) who was tested positive a couple of weeks after being cleared of the virus at a hospital, you will find that nearly all the experts thought that is a case of the original infection lying dormant and then perhaps reaching her lower respiratory system. At that point she reported a sore throat and chest pains and was tested again and found positive. There was a similar report of a Chinese woman presenting in that way.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 17:50
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Ryanair have $4bn in the bank and own 90% of their aircraft.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 18:05
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I did say ''Many'' not all

FYI EZY lost 20% of their value last week
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 18:34
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Ryanair suspends all Italian flights
Are they being selective? 5 minutes ago, a quick look at traffic around Italy showed a Ryanair arriving at Bologna ex Eindhoven, a flight from Naples to Bergamo and another en route from Rome to Barcelona. Although all carrying Ryanair flight numbers, the 3 aircraft are part of the Malta Air fleet.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 19:12
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Biggest payments for airlines are 1.) Manufacturers 2.) Wages 3.) Fuel 4.) Airports / ATC / APD

Ryanair likely would be to EXIM but bearing in mind that Boeing will owe Ryanair couple of hundred million for Max issue then really not an issue, U2 will get relief via National Govts who will want to look after national airlines and airbus.
Staff will be paid but lots will be laid off which Govts will be paying as technically unemployed unless Govts do a deal, can see this happening
Fuel - Drop in fuel prices is of no benefit as airlines will have forward bought into next year, they will need to use up what they bought and as nobody flying it could be 2 yrs worth. Unless a deal done but if not using then little cash going out.
Airports / ATC................... generally owned by Govts who will hold back on demands for money to ensure airlines don't go bust. Govt aid ( with EU support) will stop shouting.

Airlines can survive to end of year in reduced capacity provided they manage the cash and Govts in relation to APD operate leniently.
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Old 10th Mar 2020, 19:13
  #256 (permalink)  
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An immediate shutdown leaves people stranded. A phased shutdown allows options.
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Old 11th Mar 2020, 11:02
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If you have seen the video from my previous post, Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel and you want to make your own mind up on how long this is going to go on for..... take a look here https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/ it updates daily about 20:00 UTC - very fascinating!!

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Old 11th Mar 2020, 17:27
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The coronavirus outbreak is now officially declared a pandemic.

My thesis: The only way to avoid the bankruptcies of many airlines is to ban most if not all flights around the world. Only this can save money being burned now almost everywhere. Yes, that means long unpaid vacations, but gives a hope that there will be a workplace to return to in a few months. Controversial? Certainly, but give it some thought.
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Old 11th Mar 2020, 17:40
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Now that is wishful thinking, try 12+ months..... Hang on tight...
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Old 11th Mar 2020, 21:26
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When governments put in restrictions it will be very hard to drop them as any reductions in cases will reverse when restrictions are lifted.

Might well be the case that once the whole world has had a dose then it will be safe to lead a normal life. I think airlines can forget Easter and maybe the summer.
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