Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
Join Date: May 2016
Location: The EU
Posts: 593
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by LTNman
Seems somewhat irresponsible that you purposely book a cheap flight close to a virus hot spot just to get a bargain without any thought about family and friends. Actually I find it quite shocking.
As I alluded to before, some of us will enjoy this world at a far more bearable population level whilst the rest of you hide indoors. Being able to explore Milan without being hit in the face with a selfie stick sounds ideal to me.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Europe
Posts: 969
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Switzerland ... oh wait: Swaziland
Posts: 754
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Switzerland ... oh wait: Swaziland
Posts: 754
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Milton Keynes
Posts: 1,045
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The trouble is that it isn't just the virus that will be the problem. It is the fear and disruption. I have posted before that I wouldn't book a holiday in the next few months because of the disruption at least as much as the virus- my flights mike get changed I might get stuck somewhere etc.
Now I have a new problem. I often fund my holidays from very modest savings invested in stocks and shares. Those modest savings have lost the price of a bl***y good holiday in the last week- so I will think much harder about withdrawing money and may wait until there is a recovery. Either way I am like many not booking flights.
Now I have a new problem. I often fund my holidays from very modest savings invested in stocks and shares. Those modest savings have lost the price of a bl***y good holiday in the last week- so I will think much harder about withdrawing money and may wait until there is a recovery. Either way I am like many not booking flights.
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: london
Posts: 133
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by TBSC
You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Europe
Posts: 969
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Oh no, obviously influenza isn't that bad
...and just a fraction of those hospitalized needs ICU. Most of the intensive care patients survive with the support of NIV (non-invasive ventilation through face or nasal mask).
...and just a fraction of those hospitalized needs ICU. Most of the intensive care patients survive with the support of NIV (non-invasive ventilation through face or nasal mask).
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: UK
Age: 74
Posts: 2,598
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by TBSC
You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.
Dr Tedros Adhanom, Director General of WHO said recently that over 80% of those infected suffer mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms such as pneumonia/shortness of breath, 5% critical symptoms, including respiratory failure, and 2% die. He went on to say the risk of death increases the older you are.
Far easier to draw meaningful conclusions from a source such as that.
Source: The Guardian, 20th February 2020.
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: big green wheely bin
Posts: 786
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Spanish flu was a very different proposition. It actually killed the fit and healthy due to its immune response (cytokine storm). This seem very different in that its killing the over 80’s (CFR 15%) and those with underlying health issues.
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: west of the tamar
Age: 74
Posts: 835
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I have a suspicion there will be many more emmetts in Cornwall this year!
As the powers that be have said, it will get worse before it gets better, hoping not too much damage is done in the meantime.
As the powers that be have said, it will get worse before it gets better, hoping not too much damage is done in the meantime.
Thread Starter
In 2004 (from Statista) total number of Air Travellers worldwide estimate at 1.9 Billion, in 2018, 2020 was forecast to be circa 4.8 Billion. If go back to 1995 which is really the pre Net era then it was 1.5 billion. In 1995 UK pax were 115 million, in 2019 it was 195 million.
Many people's "ONLY" flight per year was to the bucket and spade destinations in the Med or Mickey Mouse land in the US. Airports were dead outside of morning / evening rotations and holidays aside from the biggies.
In 1995 it was impossible to find someone who has been to China / Japan on holidays, now while still unusual it would not be that hard to find someone who knows someone.
The net has allowed quicker info (not always good) but also open up airline travel.
In 1979 there were approximately 10,000 employed directly in UK aviation, in 2019 this estimated at 85,000 people.
Many people's "ONLY" flight per year was to the bucket and spade destinations in the Med or Mickey Mouse land in the US. Airports were dead outside of morning / evening rotations and holidays aside from the biggies.
In 1995 it was impossible to find someone who has been to China / Japan on holidays, now while still unusual it would not be that hard to find someone who knows someone.
The net has allowed quicker info (not always good) but also open up airline travel.
In 1979 there were approximately 10,000 employed directly in UK aviation, in 2019 this estimated at 85,000 people.
Thread Starter
This was the basis of starting the thread. Discovering impact on the industry. Already we are seeing passengers voting with their facemasks and believe this is only the start. Indebted airlines will start to have problems in the weeks ahead as cash flow dries up.
IAG already stated it cannot give ANY profit forecasts going forward, others will quickly be in this position. 3rd week of April is when airlines report their quarter results and believe many will be in a bad position.
This industry is about confidence, this no more evident that 2001, post 9/11. Additional security reassured passengers but difficult to reassure passengers when you can't see, smell, taste a potential infection. This is why it is worrying and agree that UK tourist industry is set for a potential boom. No doubt brextiteers will be cheering as a justification but downside is many job losses will also ensue from Airlines / Airports and Travel industry. It may be short term which everybody hopes but if not then who knows.
IAG already stated it cannot give ANY profit forecasts going forward, others will quickly be in this position. 3rd week of April is when airlines report their quarter results and believe many will be in a bad position.
This industry is about confidence, this no more evident that 2001, post 9/11. Additional security reassured passengers but difficult to reassure passengers when you can't see, smell, taste a potential infection. This is why it is worrying and agree that UK tourist industry is set for a potential boom. No doubt brextiteers will be cheering as a justification but downside is many job losses will also ensue from Airlines / Airports and Travel industry. It may be short term which everybody hopes but if not then who knows.
