Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

[alm1]

The first person infected in Lithuania flew Bologna-Kaunas on Ryanair.

In other news Geneva motor show canceled.

[LTNman]

First British death in Japan. Easyjet cancelling some flights to Italy due to a lack of demand.

[Vokes55]

Originally Posted by LTNman

Seems somewhat irresponsible that you purposely book a cheap flight close to a virus hot spot just to get a bargain without any thought about family and friends. Actually I find it quite shocking.

I assume you never leave the house during the winter, just in case you catch the flu - a far more deadly disease. After all, that would be irresponsible and without thought about your family and friends.

As I alluded to before, some of us will enjoy this world at a far more bearable population level whilst the rest of you hide indoors. Being able to explore Milan without being hit in the face with a selfie stick sounds ideal to me.

[eu01]

Tenerife coronavirus: Jet2 will fly only guests who test negative

[TBSC]

You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.

[ZFT]

Where are the facts to back this up?

[TBSC]

In China. .

[TBSC]

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../14441008.html

[22/04]

The trouble is that it isn't just the virus that will be the problem. It is the fear and disruption. I have posted before that I wouldn't book a holiday in the next few months because of the disruption at least as much as the virus- my flights mike get changed I might get stuck somewhere etc.

Now I have a new problem. I often fund my holidays from very modest savings invested in stocks and shares. Those modest savings have lost the price of a bl***y good holiday in the last week- so I will think much harder about withdrawing money and may wait until there is a recovery. Either way I am like many not booking flights.

[ZFT]

that's a fact? More like just more fake news

[nowhereasfiled]

Originally Posted by TBSC

You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.

In that case you best lock yourself in a room with no windows and a stockpile of dry/long life foods.

[TBSC]

It might happen that people in green jackets with guns will make you to.

[eu01]

Oh no, obviously influenza isn't that bad



...and just a fraction of those hospitalized needs ICU. Most of the intensive care patients survive with the support of NIV (non-invasive ventilation through face or nasal mask).

[Expressflight]

Originally Posted by TBSC

You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.

Always a bad idea not to attribute a source to claims such as that.

Dr Tedros Adhanom, Director General of WHO said recently that over 80% of those infected suffer mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms such as pneumonia/shortness of breath, 5% critical symptoms, including respiratory failure, and 2% die. He went on to say the risk of death increases the older you are.

Far easier to draw meaningful conclusions from a source such as that.

Source: The Guardian, 20th February 2020.

[Jonty]

Spanish flu was a very different proposition. It actually killed the fit and healthy due to its immune response (cytokine storm). This seem very different in that its killing the over 80’s (CFR 15%) and those with underlying health issues.

[Spanish eyes]

Yes as you have stated 21% get pneumonia, critical symptoms or die which is a far high percentage than flu.

[GROUNDHOG]

I have a suspicion there will be many more emmetts in Cornwall this year!
As the powers that be have said, it will get worse before it gets better, hoping not too much damage is done in the meantime.

[SARF]

Pre internet this might have just made page 17 of the times .. to make it even more amusing hopefully they will find chlorinated chicken and smoking protects,you from it

[racedo]

In 2004 (from Statista) total number of Air Travellers worldwide estimate at 1.9 Billion, in 2018, 2020 was forecast to be circa 4.8 Billion. If go back to 1995 which is really the pre Net era then it was 1.5 billion. In 1995 UK pax were 115 million, in 2019 it was 195 million.

Many people's "ONLY" flight per year was to the bucket and spade destinations in the Med or Mickey Mouse land in the US. Airports were dead outside of morning / evening rotations and holidays aside from the biggies.

In 1995 it was impossible to find someone who has been to China / Japan on holidays, now while still unusual it would not be that hard to find someone who knows someone.

The net has allowed quicker info (not always good) but also open up airline travel.

In 1979 there were approximately 10,000 employed directly in UK aviation, in 2019 this estimated at 85,000 people.

[racedo]

This was the basis of starting the thread. Discovering impact on the industry. Already we are seeing passengers voting with their facemasks and believe this is only the start. Indebted airlines will start to have problems in the weeks ahead as cash flow dries up.

IAG already stated it cannot give ANY profit forecasts going forward, others will quickly be in this position. 3rd week of April is when airlines report their quarter results and believe many will be in a bad position.

This industry is about confidence, this no more evident that 2001, post 9/11. Additional security reassured passengers but difficult to reassure passengers when you can't see, smell, taste a potential infection. This is why it is worrying and agree that UK tourist industry is set for a potential boom. No doubt brextiteers will be cheering as a justification but downside is many job losses will also ensue from Airlines / Airports and Travel industry. It may be short term which everybody hopes but if not then who knows.