Not an unreasonable viewpoint.
As China shuts for New Year the view from many end customers is that you lose a month between shut down and start up, with stuff on the water from Mid Jan then it would only be hitting ports circa late Feb which ultimately means it is only about now when into factories / stores. In addition many places over order because of the Chinese down time so orders wold be well over normal. Therefore assumption is that stock would be up to mid April before post New Year stock is in.
Biggest questio is whether start up is really happening and how long will it take items to be shipped via sea. If economic slowdown in west continues then inventories could be back to normal by June. At the higher end you still air freight because of value to weight.