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Old 13th Mar 2020, 00:56
  #283 (permalink)  
OzzyOzBorn
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: SYD
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The Brits are about to discover the price for our govt not locking the country down
This thinking presumes that locking the country down completely actually achieves the most beneficial 'big picture' outcome. Delaying the inevitable onset of C-19 too long comes with unintended consequences.

We need to think this through logically. The objective is not to delay the spread of C-19 indefinitely. It is to try and induce an extended flattened peak of cases through the Summer months at a manageable rate. This brings several advantages. Firstly, the younger and fitter demographic are best equipped to fight off the infection independently in warmer Summer conditions. Secondly, the NHS is less under pressure from more familiar admissions in Summer than it is during Winter months when regular Winter flu (with broadly similar mortality rates and risk-groups) does its worst. Hence more beds / staff / resources available to cope with C-19 cases in Summer. Even the most vulnerable groups have enhanced chances of successful recovery in Summer conditions as opposed to Winter. A phenomenally successful campaign of containment which pushes the main C-19 onset back to November would be a disaster in reality. Peak-infection during Winter months must be avoided. So - whilst the politicians can't admit as much - getting a wave of early cases out of the way in Spring followed by a hopefully steady flow into the Summer months is the best way to manage an infection which an estimated 80% of us are fated to face anyway.

All terrible news for the airline industry, of course. And for leisure travel generally. But bigger concerns have to take priority. In the longer term it is hoped that an effective vaccine can be formulated. But finding an effective treatment and then producing it in sufficient volume will be a very challenging endeavour. We may not achieve this in time for Winter '20/'21.
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