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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 14th Mar 2020, 20:09
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NORWEGIAN SOS

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/norwegian-on-the-brink/

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Old 14th Mar 2020, 20:10
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I don't think you are too far off the mark there..... There will be a pivot change in how air travel is booked, operated and delivered. As long as ACMI operators can keep their heads above water I can see an exciting new business model coming out that we as a society have readily accepted in other forms of transport. Social acceptance and change are the drivers of technology.
Watch out aviation..!
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 20:18
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I can see an exciting new business model coming out that we as a society have readily accepted in other forms of transport
Such as???
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 20:25
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Spain plans partial lockdown from Monday, the draft of an official decree seen by Reuters reveals some facts:
All public transport would be curtailed, with airline, train, bus and boat operators told they need to cut their services by at least half and that any plane, train, bus or other means of transport can only be a third full.
A nightmare for any airline trying to re-arrange flights according to these rules...
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 20:34
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France now essentially on lockdown. Hardly anywhere left now for European airlines to go to
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 20:43
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It now looks as though the skies over Europe, and much of the rest of the world, will be empty for the next few weeks or months. Under normal circumstances, few airlines could survive such an event.
I suspect we will soon see a G7 or G20 meeting (virtual, of course), to decide a common approach to the fall out from Covid-19. I also suspect that this will entail some multi-lateral agreement to extend contracts, give interest payment holidays, and preserve currently constituted legal entities. It would entail World Bank/IMF support for money printing which, if done in a co-ordinated manner could have a neutral effect on currency values and inflation.
The US, Japan, UK, China and the EU would be the prime movers. With that sort of agreement, this could be an uncomfortable, but temporary blip.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 21:38
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Let us not forget what Ryanair has said on state aid. Money for one, money for all.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/202...nair-on-flybe/
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 21:42
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I believe WW is in full retirement from March 31st.

The difference is between bailing out a basket case which no amount of cash was likely to save with its owners not putting anything in and a whole industry. The loss of the airline inustry long term is not just some jobs at IAG and airports but the whole tourism and hospitality industry.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 21:47
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Yes, that was an attempt at irony there. I don't want to see any casualties, IAG included. Just pointing out the hypocrisy of WW's rhetoric to invite failure at FlyBe.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 21:47
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I am with you on the temporary blip, park the long term debt with a payment holiday. Lessors who don't play ball then let the access to funding die. The issue with most companies will be the day to day cash. If you have to refund pretty much all your flights fopr next 3 months then you may have no cash to just pay people.

You have to wonder is the someone doing all this with a plan.... probably not but everything crashing.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 21:52
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I don't think anybody was inviting or wanted failure at FlyBe, it however was pretty clear within aviation industry that it was walking dead that no amount of cash would have turned it around. As hard as it is letting a business fail it can often be the only way that other businesses can survive. It isn't easy for those who lose out but walking dead companies with incompetent management do nobody any favours.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 23:06
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Look on the bright side, Greta Thunberg must be smiling!
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 23:08
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Such as???
Iím certainly not going to spell out a business plan on here..... when your dealt lemons- make lemonade 👍
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 07:41
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Air France needs to stop flying back and forth to Africa. If one of those god forsaken former colonies gets the virus, it'll be imported from France. Once it takes afoot in Africa, well.... I don't want to think about it.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 15:09
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In a stark message, industry body Airlines UK said the government's "prevarication" and "bean counting" had to stop.

"We're talking about the future of UK aviation - one of our world-class industries - and unless the government pulls itself together who knows what will be left of it once we get out of this mess," it added.

Airline bosses have been talking to ministers. Last week, senior figures in the industry were said to be "livid" that there were no emergency measures for the aviation sector in the budget, whereas most other sectors of the economy received billions of pounds of support.
The government said in a statement that it recognises the difficulties UK airlines are facing.

"We are engaging with the sector's leadership to support workers, businesses and passengers," it said.

"We have influenced the European Commission to relax flight slots and HMRC is ready to help all businesses, including airlines, and self-employed individuals, experiencing temporary financial difficulties due to coronavirus."
BBC - Coronavirus: 'Future of UK aviation' at risk, say airlines
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 17:25
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American Airlines will now slash their flights by 75%....
https://www.airlive.net/alert-americ...apacity-by-75/
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 17:25
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It's already there.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 17:29
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I suspect IAG would rather explore all other options than go to Governments for support.

If we're talking about double standards, don't forget that Sir Richard Branson said that BA should not get any state support when it was in trouble after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 18:11
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The chances of this thing being over in the near term is pretty remote: So without wanting to incur a wrath of abuse..

In the UK would you rather support a ‘stipend’ payable to airline / aerospace employees and let the airlines fail - ie look after the people with a time limit of say 12 months / or do you want to be selective and effectively nationalise some airlines, airports, handling agents, even though there will be little or no traffic?

Many industries will suffer terribly and very quickly and the govt could elect to make a stipend payable to people in order to reduce the risk of social unrest whilst keeping people relatively compliant with how the govt wants to resolve things going forward. Investors would lose money for sure but the small print clearly states your capital may be at risk.....

New innovative airlines will be formed the second confidence starts to grow and it wont take long to see a new pivot in airline travel - there will be no shortage of hardware to choose from that’s for sure.

I would expect most train franchises in the UK to be nationalised within the next 60 days... So a precedent does exist in transport!

It will not be a quick process to get scheduled business or holiday traffic back to levels that are expected or required to service the debt and structure of many international airlines, so they have to completely restructure if they can in time or go bust and then allow innovation, technology and a pivot change in creating a new way to operate in the airline business.

So do you save the people or save the company - I’d rather save the people - even if they are unemployed if the govt is contributing say £1500 per month for 12 months - they will not be homeless.... It’s not like they are going to be snapped up by other airlines currently!

??
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 18:54
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32
.

So do you save the people or save the company - Iíd rather save the people - even if they are unemployed if the govt is contributing say £1500 per month for 12 months - they will not be homeless.... Itís not like they are going to be snapped up by other airlines currently!
I can understand the "saving the people" very well. BUT and it is a very big BUT, if you all all the airlines to fail with the assumption that new ones MAY start then pretty much single supplier to that airline will be going bust as well.

This will be the dilemma as if Airline know they are on their own then why bother paying suppliers is you are going bust and trying to hold onto cash. Each of these supplier will be struggling anyway as work will have dried up but add in a customer who will never pay and there will be lots more jobs lost.

Restarting and thinking new airlines will pop up is a no chance for a bank who has just got burned by a major airline for £300 million, lessors will be the same demanding huge deposits because they are in the same position and the old suppliers will be no longer in business because they lost their house / business etc.

The least worst option is to say to Airlines, hold onto you staff at a reduced pay rate, Govt will fund this for 6 months to prevent thousands being shoved on the dole, lots of people seeking mega assistance from council for housing / mortgage and food banks.

At least a reboot will be quicker because the majority of people should still be around, if at Gatwick you said to a big Airline, tough then lots of people living and renting in local area would give up and try to head for home. This is not just airline but the thousands who work in retail / airport services . Aside from devastating local economy in short term in the long term where are all those people who currently work in airport going to come from in an area with pretty much negative unemployment.

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