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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:41
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guy_incognito

That is a rather gloomy assessment. I agree that the Summer 2021 season is almost dead before it has even started, but I fully expected that in the autumn, which is why I have been saying that anyone who books a trip for S21 and hands over money is in the first place whistling in the wind, and second putting their hard earned cash at risk.

However announce the death of the UK aviation industry is somewhat exaggerating the situation. Even, just supposing there was a total collapse with the likes of Jet2, EasyJet, Ryanair, Loganair; the whole shooting match going bust, which won't happen anyway, the consequence would be the rising from the ashes of new businesses started up by executives and entrepreneurs in the industry, so that when the time is right, probably 2022, the industry would emerge looking very much different from how it does today, or to be more accurate, in 2019.

The same would likely happen with the package holiday industry, with many more smaller players filling the gaps left by the behemoths that now dominate the sector. That may be no bad thing for consumer choice, and also for employment in the longer term.

Helipixman:-

What is the answer ? when England can vaccinate 400,000 per day and that number is growing, they have vaccinated 5.8 million people so far ! Then take Scotland they have only vaccinated 360,000 in TOTAL - thats less than England in one day ? Scotland are already lagging behind. What country might you be wanting to travel to and how far behind are they ?
How can you just look at raw numbers; yes Scotland has vaccinated as many people per capita as England, but to use pure numbers is disingenuous. Just as an example, it is much more difficult for Scotland, given it's size and population to ensure that there are vaccination points within 10 miles of everyone in the population. Much easier for England.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:42
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guy_incognito

I'd usually think this is ridiculous, but it's obvious international travel like what we are used to is gone for good.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:43
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Interested in people's opinions here. If this time last year Covid was still very new, we had no vaccine etc and we knew very little about it, but there was still a significant holiday season (albeit with restrictions), why do people think there will be no holiday season this year considering the advancement in the knowledge and vaccine we have now?
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:48
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Because the U.K. government are taking a different (stricter) approach this time...
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:55
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Plus there is no discussion of when these restrictions will end. The constant popping up of new variants is going to make it impossible for international travel to ever happen again on the scale we are used to.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:26
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Then there is the question of countries like France where half the population has said they wonít take the vaccination.
It was being quoted at about 40% but the current anecdata seems to show that, for example, once some of the residents in the likes of the Ehpads ( basically old people's home) are vaccinated and don't fall over many of their peer group suddenly have a change of heart and it becomes a case of "I'll have what she's having"....

I'm hearing similar is happening in other groups outside the Ehpads so I don't think the reality is that 50% of the French population will refuse to be vaccinated..

But yes the roll out is *** slow, we went through the 1000 000 vaccinated figure a day or two back.

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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:27
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Theres plenty of discussion of when restrictions will end. Its all over the papers today.

All this talk of the end of international travel is just rubbish. It will take time but it will come back, and probably in a more sustainable way as older airframes are retired from fleets, and newer more fuel efficient aircraft take over.

Viruses mutate all the time, The issue we have is the current high infection rate means a new mutation could come in and spread rapidly while our vaccine scheme is still being rolled out. Once the infection rate comes down, which it would in the summer months even without a vaccine, the vaccines can be tweaked to combat any new mutation. We will get to the the point of annual covid vaccines, and an annual death toll which society will tolerate. It will end up being treated much like flu.

What has happened with government this time is a new bod has taken over in number 10 and said to can't keep over promising and under delivering. It needs to be the other way round. Hence the change in mood.

I think restrictions of some sort will carry on past easter into the early summer. But as the vaccines are spread to more and more adults those restrictions will be eased. Then this coming autumn a new set of vaccines to combat the most prevalent strains of the virus will be rolled out to the most vulnerable. And on we go until Covid is not even thought about anymore. Much like the flu season we get every winter.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:40
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The view in government is that the tighter the travel restrictions the better the chances of keeping new variants out of the country. Last Spring the government was under pressure to relax the rules so the great British public could have their foreign holidays in time for the school holidays and we all saw what happened in the Autumn.

This year that pressure wonít be there. In fact the pressure could be to maintain closed borders which will make life easier for the government.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:44
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I don't think people understand what is happening here. None of these restrictions are temporary. Closure of pubs, restaurants and non-essential retail, the right to socialise, the effective closure of the border: these are all permanent restrictions that the government has no intention of ever relaxing. They have said as much, stating that one of their criteria for relaxing restrictions is "no new variants". There will be extremely limited passenger travel, most likely for diplomats, dignitaries and "high value individuals". For ordinary people, the UK border is closed for good.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:44
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Originally Posted by LTNman
Even Hungarian Wizz received £300m and they didnít even need the money
The factual version is: Even British Wizz Air UK received £300m LOAN and they use the money to keep a rural airport called Luton alive.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:45
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Have I got this right, from having the first vaccine jab to having the second one, it takes about thirteen weeks to have a 95% immune system to the virus. Government aim is to have all the jabs done by September, the way I see it travel is going to be very limited this year.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:51
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TBSC

British Wizz did not get a penny as it went to the Wizz holding company as they trade on the stock exchange. The Wizz group benefited by paying off loans that were replaced with cheap U.K. money.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 08:56
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The emphasis here has been on oversees holidays - which in the grand scheme of things isn't top priority.
Despite Zoom & Teams there will still be the need for business travel even at a reduced rate.
There are a whole host of of other reasons why people travel, work, family and medical
My other half is in Hong Kong (work) I have not seen them for 12 months now. I cannot go there as a Brit, for them to come here would make it very difficult to get back into HKG and would take 2 weeks stop at an acceptable transit point followed by 3 weeks quarantine- so not practical.
I won't be the only one in this situation, people have families spread all over the world, they can't be denied access forever.
After a year there still is no standardisation of travel policy, quarantine rules, health checks, testing, They need to establish an international standard a la security check, a standard that is acceptable to the majority of countries and only then can controlled travel be opened up. It may not be suitable or sustainable for a weekend stag do in Magaluf but it would be acceptable for bringing families together & essential business travel.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 09:11
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The British government does not care about business travel (Boris "F*** business" Johnson), and it cares even less about enabling families to be together. All indications are that extreme isolationist policies are hugely popular with the public. You're living in cloud cuckoo land if you think that there'll be a harmonised set of international regs to allow travel I'm afraid.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 09:23
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And which country has the most extreme isolationist policies and is the most popular with its citizens? New Zealand. And what does New Zealand have in common with the U.K? Both Islands so the borders are easier to control if the will is there.

I see France is introducing new travel restrictions to EU countries that won’t apply to road and rail travel making the restrictions pointless with its open borders.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 09:52
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You're living in cloud cuckoo land if you think that there'll be a harmonised set of international regs to allow travel I'm afraid
Itís what happened to security screening after 9/11 to enable travel to restart.
where thereís a will, thereís a way.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 09:57
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Your second sentence is the problem.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 10:23
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Mr A Tis

For the most part I think you're right, and with "the orange one" out of the way international consensus may become easier; however two (for the UK) particularly high profile flies in the ointment loom large, namely Australia and New Zealand, both of whom appear to be adopting "zero risk" policies where a single case is one too many, when in reality this virus is never going to be eliminated, it's going to be managed.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 11:26
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Whatever part of the UK we live in our respective Governments probably will not allow foreign travel in Summer 2021 sad news for many and the Tourism industry - so can anyone on here think of or know the way out so that we can travel. We can all speculate and give our opinions but will any of it actually happen. Keep safe and follow the rules...
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 12:28
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On the basis they are suggesting even those who are vaccinated can still carry the virus and infect others, the potential here is that no one will be able to travel for a few years without a test in the UK prior to departure and a test overseas prior to return.

That in itself present hurdles that the majority of people will not bother with (eg minimum £100 per pax at each end for testing, time away from work/school for testing, risk of finding out one of you is positive the day before travel, what then happens to the flights/holiday? risk of finding out you're positive the day before returning, meaning local quarantine for 14 days, costs associated with that).

The trouble is, it demonstrates the Vaccine will significantly reduce those taken seriously ill (between 70 and 90%) but it will not necessarily provide a route back to what we considered to be a normal life. The vaccine of course only protects the person who has had it, thus the important thing to any country will be whether that person is carrying it. In a way Spain largely don't care if you as the visitor are at risk, they care if you are bringing the current or any future mutations into their country. So the vaccination passport sort of become pointless.
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