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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:16
  #2881 (permalink)  
 
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Quarantine hotels will have to cover all arrivals otherwise it's just pointless. If only a small number of countries are on the list then people will just return to the UK via a 3rd country to avoid the requirement to quarantine. Which is exactly what happened with the 'Dublin Dodge' when the requirements to quarantine at home were introduced.

I'm sorry to say that if the plan is to prevent a yet undetected mutant strain entering the UK, quarantine hotels will run for most of 2021. And in all fairness, this should have happened a year ago.

There is not going to be a Summer 2021 holiday season in any meaningful sense.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:19
  #2882 (permalink)  
 
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DC3 Dave

It should be added it was an opinion from a government minister, not official governmental advice.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:24
  #2883 (permalink)  
 
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ATNotts

Which at the moment in Isreal, is indicating a 60-70% drop of hospitalisations and mortality on anyone over 60+ re: covid. Thanks to the vaccine. All good indications. So I stick to my point, he clearly is looking at Isreal, and other countries and coming to the same verdict.

But our doom & gloom MSM with their propaganda and the government with an ill qualified Health Secretary (what qualifications does he have to be in charge of the nations health by the way?) wouldn't want anyone to hear see or know. Better to have the UK living in fear than having hope.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:27
  #2884 (permalink)  
 
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LBAflyer22

Well said. Problem is ABTA do not make the UK laws regarding travel, if they did and I wish they did maybe we could all travel ?
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:29
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I suspect there would be a pragmatic approach taken. A road map, criteria. I don't think anyone would be travelling at the moment, but then, they'd of probably shut the borders last April and banned flying, to the Far East & China, in January 2020 when it was all kicking off in China.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:35
  #2886 (permalink)  
 
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ABTA is a trade body and is paid by travel agents. It has no duties or responsibilities to anyone besides its members who are travel agents. Travel agents pay money to ABTA only if they think it's in their financial interest
If asked specific questions about healthcare or how to respond to Covid, ABTA's response would be something on the theme of "Sorry, cannot advise on that, best talk to your GP"
I very much doubt in Q1 2020 it would have chosen to push for all flights to China or the Far East to be stopped, as its members who sell holidays to China would have lost money
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 13:37
  #2887 (permalink)  
 
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I would love to 'live and let live', but the number of deaths is approximately 1% of those infected, so with an infection rate of 50,000 it is quite reasonable to expect 500 deaths, which is why it has been so critical to try and reduce contact between people and it is now starting to show infection rates travelling in the right direction.

Globally it will be necessary to find ways of coping with COVID long term, but until the vast majority of the world's population have been vaccinated we will still need to have enhanced cleaning regimes, compulsory mask wearing and social-distancing as an absolute minimum. Initially it is also likely that localised restrictions and lock-downs will happen relatively frequently quite randomly in different countries, so there will certainly be the continued risk of short-term cancellations and disruptions occurring at very short notice.

Thinking positively, I don't think it would be unreasonable though to hope for a very limited amount of leisure travel within Europe later this Summer/Autumn (don't forget, capacity at many resorts will have to be limited too), with a similar situation next Winter, but perhaps returning to closer to normal by the Summer of 2022.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 15:47
  #2888 (permalink)  
 
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I think a few here haven’t grasped that air travel helps spread new variants around the world before they have even been identified. So far we are dealing with variants that are more transmissible not variants where the vaccines don’t work. Anyone certain that won’t happen because it seems to be dawning on governments around the world that it could happen.

As our numbers drop it might be the case that we and other governments make it even harder to travel to protect the general population while the virus remains out of control around the world. I just can’t see travel restrictions being lifted anytime soon and with the uproar about the queues at Heathrow the public seems to be demanding closing borders not relaxing them.

Last edited by LTNman; 26th Jan 2021 at 17:06.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 19:01
  #2889 (permalink)  
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In practice, firms that meet this requirement would normally be: UK incorporated companies, including those with foreign-incorporated parents and with a genuine business in the UK; companies with significant employment in the UK; firms with their headquarters in the UK. We will also consider whether the company generates significant revenues in the UK, serves a large number of customers in the UK or has a number of operating sites in the UK.

From the article above

Money went to Wizzair UK Ltd, where it goes after that is not relevant as money went to a UK company which is what I have said all along.
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 19:12
  #2890 (permalink)  
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Factually incorrect, merely trading on LSE has no relevance on ability to access loans under this scheme

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mark...ncing-facility and Section A1 I refer you to.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 07:51
  #2891 (permalink)  
 
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Vaccination progress in Israel is providing interesting data. They are the furtherest along towards herd immunity (if such a thing can be made to work). It looks like they might reach this some time around easter. They have given over 40% a first shot so far and it is about five weeks afterwards that they get towards the 90% plus immunity from the studies, if we have 3 weeks between first and second vaccination and another 14 days after that for the full effect. They are proceeding at a rate that we can only dream of in the EU. Even if we speed up dramatically we might reasonably expect to get to a similar point in late summer.

There is an argument that once the vulnerable have been vaccinated (which should be far earlier) then we can go back to life as normal. Certainly as far as education is concerned I think the cost benefit is fairly clearly in favour of opening up. However as far as holiday travel is concerned the situation is rather more difficult. First of all not everyone wants to get vaccinated. Anecdotally we hear of certain groups where the take up is currently projected to be less than half. The new variant seems much more infectious and there is a chance that nearly everyone who is not vaccinated will eventually get it. This has the benefit that this group will also have immunity. But given the fact that it is not just killing the obviously vulnerable it is unlikely that people are going to rush out in order to infect themselves. So herd immunity looks a long way off.

What conclusions can we draw from the data so far? If the hospitals don't get overwhelmed mortality seems to be around one percent. It may be less but certainly not zero. At one percent we are talking about an increased mortality across Europe potentially in the hundreds of thousands. I may be wrong and would be happy to be corrected. But currently I am not sure about revalidating my Airbus rating which runs out in a couple of months.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 08:26
  #2892 (permalink)  
 
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Germany thinking about shutting down international flights
https://m.dw.com/en/germany-consider...ons/a-56349658
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 10:34
  #2893 (permalink)  
 
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If Germany do that how many others will follow ?

I posted something yesterday ! It has either been removed or did not go through.

About a month ago I said that maybe International Leisure Travel needed to be stopped completely, the only flights should be either Cargo or Air Ambulance, I seemed to get some abuse for that, but now lots of people agree that should have happened months and months ago ?

Is that how New Zealand stopped the spread by closing their borders early on. I know they are less populated, about the same as Scotland, and have only had 25 deaths ?

Is the need for the economy to survive driving the Coronavirus ? Yesterday a woman on UK TV said the economy has the ability to rebuild a death does not !

Sad for the Industry but needs must.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 10:39
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Originally Posted by lederhosen
But currently I am not sure about revalidating my Airbus rating which runs out in a couple of months.
Please if you can keep it revalidated do so, you can bet when things get back to normal ? You will be needed. How many others could do the same and let theirs lapse, may not be enough pilots then ?
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 11:32
  #2895 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by helipixman

Is that how New Zealand stopped the spread by closing their borders early on. I know they are less populated, about the same as Scotland, and have only had 25 deaths ?
Less populated and less than one third of the population density.
And if you think that geographic remoteness and low density don't matter, then you have to explain why Highlands and Islands health boards have the lowest number of cases in Scotland.

NZ is a great success story and I'd much rather be there right now, the irony is that their reopening to the world relies heavily on a vaccine being developed and produced elsewhere and delivered to their doorstep.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 12:55
  #2896 (permalink)  
 
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I'm not sure I would. NZ is following an unrealistic policy of eradicating the virus, or keeping NZ free of it, which involves essentially imprisoning it's population within NZ territory for the foreseeable, possibly long term future. At some stage we have to accept that how ever much we try and mitigate it's effects, we are going, as world, to have to live with the virus and the risks that go with it.

Vaccination and more effective treatments form part of that "living with it" and with luck should enable the resumption of travel sometime in the next 12 months.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 13:08
  #2897 (permalink)  
 
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100% agree. To close a border to all and sundry because someone sneezed is unsustainable. And they are still getting cases despite this policy. It is hard to say that the virus is globally endemic but it is reality.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 15:45
  #2898 (permalink)  
 
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These new rules wouldn't have looked out of place in the German Democratic Republic:-

Whilst from a UK perspective I fully understand and agree with the "hotel quarantine" rules for arrivals, and actually would agree with Labour that they shouldn't be restricted to just the red list nations, when it comes to people leaving the UK surely the risk lies with the country in which the arrive to decide whether they should or shouldn't travel, not up to the UK to stop them leaving. Patel has overstepped the mark, but I doubt that, without the European Court to fall back on anyone will successfully challenge her.

What is does do is render anything other than very necessary travel outside the UK pretty well impossible and is just more bad news for the travel industry. One only hopes that the government doesn't keep them in place for a minute longer than Covid-19 makes them, in their eyes, necessary. However with Pritti Patel in charge I'm not holding out much hope of that. She comes across as authoritarian, and I think it very likely she quite enjoys the power she appears to have and will be reluctant to give it away.
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 16:36
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As you say a bad day for the travel industry (UK), correct me if I am wrong but I am sure I heard Nicolas Sturgeon has added her piece by saying the new restrictions from Pritti Patel do not go far enough. I wonder what she has planned for Scotland ?
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Old 27th Jan 2021, 16:54
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People are dreaming if they think that these restrictions are going to be temporary. The days of being able to freely travel as a UK citizen are gone for good as there is absolutely no chance of the government ever giving up the powers that they have appropriated for themselves.
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