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Edinburgh-3

Old 10th Sep 2018, 17:44
  #621 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Falkirk
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Edinburgh Airfiled Expansion Phase 2b

Does anyone have visablity on the Edi airfield expansion 2b and the creation of new stands. Are these for pasanager or cargo aircraft?
work looks like its about to start....
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Old 14th Sep 2018, 15:58
  #622 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
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Expansion

As I see there has been more expansion happened in terms of more aircraft parking and passenger space, I have looked at potential unserved and underserved routes that my happen:

Bucharest: Wizz Air, Ryanair (most likely) or Blue air possibly even Tarom as this is a major unserved destination could work 3-4 x a week.
Delhi: Air India or Jet Airways this is the biggest unserved destination with 40,000 passengers going indirect or from another airport this could work 1 daily.
Hannover: Eurowings (most likely), Flybe or Wizzair 3x a week.
Hong Kong: This would be a far stretch but Cathay possibly 5x weekly on an A350-900.
Los Angeles and Las Vegas: Again a long stretch but If it happens United, Virgin Atlantic or Thomas Cook could maybe try 1-2 x weekly each.
Moscow: Aeroflot A320 1x daily.
Orlando: Thomas Cook or Virgin Atlantic 1-2 x weekly.

A few of these are very unlikely to happen but these are the biggest unserved routes and a few are quite likely to get announced sometime although possibly seasonal only, in the near future.

What do you guys think?

Best regards
Plane mad 134 is offline  
Old 14th Sep 2018, 16:20
  #623 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Scotland
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Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
As I see there has been more expansion happened in terms of more aircraft parking and passenger space, I have looked at potential unserved and underserved routes that my happen:

Bucharest: Wizz Air, Ryanair (most likely) or Blue air possibly even Tarom as this is a major unserved destination could work 3-4 x a week.
Delhi: Air India or Jet Airways this is the biggest unserved destination with 40,000 passengers going indirect or from another airport this could work 1 daily.
Hannover: Eurowings (most likely), Flybe or Wizzair 3x a week.
Hong Kong: This would be a far stretch but Cathay possibly 5x weekly on an A350-900.
Los Angeles and Las Vegas: Again a long stretch but If it happens United, Virgin Atlantic or Thomas Cook could maybe try 1-2 x weekly each.
Moscow: Aeroflot A320 1x daily.
Orlando: Thomas Cook or Virgin Atlantic 1-2 x weekly.

A few of these are very unlikely to happen but these are the biggest unserved routes and a few are quite likely to get announced sometime although possibly seasonal only, in the near future.

What do you guys think?

Best regards
I'd say as a rule that any long haul route from MAN or DUB is viable at EDI with the right frequency. I'd also say that we might see Air Canada opening new routes with the MAX like they did in Ireland.
mullac30 is offline  
Old 14th Sep 2018, 17:26
  #624 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
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Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
As I see there has been more expansion happened in terms of more aircraft parking and passenger space, I have looked at potential unserved and underserved routes that my happen:

Bucharest: Wizz Air, Ryanair (most likely) or Blue air possibly even Tarom as this is a major unserved destination could work 3-4 x a week.
Delhi: Air India or Jet Airways this is the biggest unserved destination with 40,000 passengers going indirect or from another airport this could work 1 daily.
Hannover: Eurowings (most likely), Flybe or Wizzair 3x a week.
Hong Kong: This would be a far stretch but Cathay possibly 5x weekly on an A350-900.
Los Angeles and Las Vegas: Again a long stretch but If it happens United, Virgin Atlantic or Thomas Cook could maybe try 1-2 x weekly each.
Moscow: Aeroflot A320 1x daily.
Orlando: Thomas Cook or Virgin Atlantic 1-2 x weekly.

A few of these are very unlikely to happen but these are the biggest unserved routes and a few are quite likely to get announced sometime although possibly seasonal only, in the near future.

What do you guys think?

Best regards
Personally I think S7 would be more likely to start Moscow than Aeroflot. They serve DUB already. It is a mystery why EDI doesn't have a Moscow service, I am sure at even 5 per week or summer only it would do just fine.
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Old 14th Sep 2018, 19:15
  #625 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Didnt Transaero try it in the past a drop it. I suppose even if it was a flop last time, it has been known for failed routes to try again. Just look at PHL.
No frills /low cost Pobeda to Dublin 4/wk could be worth watching.
Think BA have cut back significantly their UK-Moscow offering and the EZY experiment was short lived.
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Old 14th Sep 2018, 19:32
  #626 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
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Cathay are doing well at Dublin, think well see them in the near future at EDI. We know China Eastern have EDI in their plans for a route to Shanghai so well see what happens there.
Edinburgh only having one route to Canada, a seasonal one as well, is nowhere near good enough so Id expect that to improve soon. Westjet have been talking with edinburgh so we might see that come to fruition or we might see rouge/ac mainline going year round.
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 07:55
  #627 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
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A canadian service year round would be fantastic and so would China Eastern but they may push Hainan out of the china market.
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 10:33
  #628 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
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Plane mad and Craigjay;

Hainan at both Manchester and Edinburgh are effectively Cassia charters combining a nice cargo uplift whilst about a 1/3 of cabin capacity is offered for general sale from Manchester and slightly less from Edinburgh due to shared Dublin capacity.

Open sales from the UK and particularly the front of the cabins are rather disappointing to be conservative !

The Various HNA routes into Heathrow from the secondary and tertiary Chinese markets are following a similar trajectory.

Air China has almost All the business traffic from China including Chinese government and major business (leading party members in the main) to and from the country. China Southern serves much of the remaining trade and is the preferred second carrier of the CAAC much in the way British Caledonian used to be here !
Whilst for reasons of an internal political conflict ongoing between regional and central state agencies at Shanghai between Air China and China Eastern over slots significant expansion here is stymied at the moment.

Without astronomical subsidies from regional governments and the Chinese tax payers the vast majority of those secondary and tertiary routes wouldn’t ever be considered by any truly commercial profit driven business period stop - Evident British Airways failure on purely commercial grounds to Chengdu !

China is far from a goldmine and aviation and multiple colours are a sham of classical Chinese smoke and mirrors.

As for Russian routes to and from the UK please read the political runes carefully - certainly None to/from the regions in the near and medium term - even Alex Salmond ego and entourage won’t fill a weekly 320 flight to the RT studios for his regular treacherous broadcasts !

Hong Kong is always heavily cargo based - Might work I suppose however does the runway length support a fulling loaded 359 landing I just don’t know ( I say landing because the majority of the boxes will be imports)

An Indian route will be some time off imho - Jet are still 8 weeks from commencing Manchester and have yet to measure the performance and further they have a well known record of binning routes if the numbers don’t add up rather quickly.
Whilst Air India go where the GOI TELL THEM TO over what might be an obvious commercial opportunity !
And those other Indian largely flexible fares operators remain constrained by GOI policies and the varous bilatteral treaties, many of which set strict seating capacity limits in the market to protect Air India !

West Coast US and Canada imho remain better serviced from Glasgow where Scotland commercially supports those but only on a very limited summer schedule similar to Manchester - remember that airport has only had service for two seasons so far (Yes Manchester did have connections to Los Angeles by Laker and British Airways in decades past I know) , whilst Vancouver has been served in the past from the Clyde and Ayrshire .

Could those Air Canada Max8s commercially serve Edinburgh from YYZ more frequently than Rouge well yes quite possibly and even year round perhaps twice a week in deep mid winter - Same could be said for their Manchester offerings however the fleet is already stretched on longer domestic and the close TALC routes they are deployed on.

As for South Africa not a chance on SAA ( They are effectively bankrupt) and can’t even make a return on their remaining Heathrow daily flight and are totally reliant on partner Lufthansa Group for support of the German and Swiss routes over those Hubs.
Whilst the chance of IAG carriers offering anything other than dumping you on a shuttle “darn souf’ to Heathrow or Gatwick for the winter Capetown service is about as likely as .............. Ie Not a chance - Well unless and until Thomas Cook offer a seasonal Manchester service and for several seasons and then evaluate the numbers and only then - but probably they’ll go for Glasgow over Edinburgh imho !

Right now and this also applies at Manchester the next few seasons Will be about consolidation and retaining their central long haul offerings.

2019 will be a defining and difficult year for a variety of reasons imho.

Oh and haven’t mentioned two Scandinavian based carriers because they have both signaled they are looking beyond the UK markets in 2019 and both are in financial stress and showing substantial gearing pressure with 2019 being an defining year if long term survival is to be secured .

Norwegian may yet be a target for a take over from someone , whilst Primera seem content on looking at mainland European expansion opportunities surprisingly in some of the major markets and against the established alliance groupings !
Whilst that Icelandic carrier WOW are struggling to sell debt bond packages I understand the ensure sufficient liquidity - Certainly not a good sign or one for stakeholders confidence !








Last edited by Rutan16; 15th Sep 2018 at 18:08.
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 12:28
  #629 (permalink)  
 
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Transavia, Finnair Munich

Transavia Orly

I apologise if this has been discussed but what is the status of this service. Winter shows it ends early November then a couple of flights over Christmas and nothing beyond - is it seasonal now or ending?

Finnair

At times in winter it appears to be 3 a week on the 190 - has this changed or always being the case.

Munich

Winter showing Munich Friday & Sunday Eurowings and Lufthansa Tuesday and Saturday???? Is the LH a ski flight as hardly aimed at connecting flights at this frequency and how unusual two airlines from the same group - aircraft availability?

Pete
OltonPete is offline  
Old 15th Sep 2018, 12:53
  #630 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
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Originally Posted by OltonPete View Post

Transavia Orly

I apologise if this has been discussed but what is the status of this service. Winter shows it ends early November then a couple of flights over Christmas and nothing beyond - is it seasonal now or ending

Finnair

At times in winter it appears to be 3 a week on the 190 - has this changed or always being the case.
Transavia operated last winter. I don't know if their cessation of Edinburgh flights this winter means that the route will no longer operate at all in the future or will become a summer-only route.

Finnair were previously summer only and three weekly in winter was always the plan since it was announced earlier this year: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland...-fife-42635825

Last edited by tartan 201; 15th Sep 2018 at 12:54. Reason: Typo
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 13:39
  #631 (permalink)  
 
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Last winter France played Scotland (rugby) in Edinburgh. That was a hook for several Orly flights, as it's a big weekend for them. This year of course it's in Paris, and not so many Scots travel. But certainly they've cut back.

I'm not sure if they've put any schedule on sale after end March. Neither have Iberia Express from Madrid. And Munich has the same schedule in summer as winter, which seems unlikely.
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 14:43
  #632 (permalink)  
 
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Finnair/Iberia Express

Originally Posted by tartan 201 View Post
Transavia operated last winter. I don't know if their cessation of Edinburgh flights this winter means that the route will no longer operate at all in the future or will become a summer-only route.

Finnair were previously summer only and three weekly in winter was always the plan since it was announced earlier this year: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland...-fife-42635825
Cheers tartan 201.

I must have been dreaming I thought it was going to be on the Airbus 4 x a week. I see it did operate November & December last year then stopped so a gain for the New Year period.

inOban "I'm not sure if they've put any schedule on sale after end March. Neither have Iberia Express from Madrid. And Munich has the same schedule in summer as winter, which seems unlikely"

I didn't notice the IB Express Madrid which operated last winter but certainly not bookable either winter or summer 19. BHX is bookable for both so not looking great.

China

I thought I posted my estimate of the July load factor but obviously forgot the important bit "send". Using an average of 30 - 50 on the EDI-DUB sectors (788/789 mix) in transit not local traffic, I reckon around 73% load factor on the direct flights. All a bit of a guess really but harmless fun for some.

Pete
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 16:25
  #633 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
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Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
As I see there has been more expansion happened in terms of more aircraft parking and passenger space, I have looked at potential unserved and underserved routes that my happen:

Bucharest: Wizz Air, Ryanair (most likely) or Blue air possibly even Tarom as this is a major unserved destination could work 3-4 x a week.
Wizz Air moved from PIK to GLA and have gradually been downsizing their offering since. Given the strength of Wizz Air in Eastern Europe, it could make work along with other destinations, if they decided to make a go of it at EDI.
Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
Delhi: Air India or Jet Airways this is the biggest unserved destination with 40,000 passengers going indirect or from another airport this could work 1 daily.
I doubt very much either of these carriers will be coming to EDI anytime soon, especially AI! They are in a financial mess. An India route isn't totally out of the question though, IndiGo have been rumored to be looking at buying widebody aircraft for long-haul routes. So perhaps a summer seasonal/charter could happen, but probably not for a good couple of years.
Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
Hannover: Eurowings (most likely), Flybe or Wizzair 3x a week.
A summer seasonal could work here.
Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
Hong Kong: This would be a far stretch but Cathay possibly 5x weekly on an A350-900.
Probably not going to happen in the short term, but then again, they did announce DUB recently. While in the same region, Singapore might not be out of the question. According to this data (slide 27):

http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/download...mbers_2017.pdf

an estimated 14,000 people visited from Singapore, add to that connections to the rest of the region, a route with SQ might be viable if the figures stack up, and after all, they do need to fly all those planes they've ordered somewhere.

Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
Los Angeles and Las Vegas: Again a long stretch but If it happens United, Virgin Atlantic or Thomas Cook could maybe try 1-2 x weekly each.

Orlando: Thomas Cook or Virgin Atlantic 1-2 x weekly.
I really don't see any of these routes happening anytime soon. Norwegian made noises when they announced the east coast routes, that places like San Francisco and LA would start a few years later. Given their financial situation, who knows if this will likely to come to fruition. In terms of the USA, perhaps United could be inclined to adding another seasonal route to their hubs (hopefully this doesn't come at the expense of GLA) and Delta might try again with their Atlanta megahub.

As others have mentioned, with only one seasonal route with Rouge, Canada seems more a more likely bet for Tran-Atlantic routes in the near future.

Originally Posted by Plane mad 134 View Post
Moscow: Aeroflot A320 1x daily.
Given the political climate, I doubt a Moscow route will happen anytime soon.

In terms of other routes:
  • China - another route is certainly possible if Hainan make a success of EDI.
  • Tokyo - they've been charters in the past as part of European tours. ANA have said that they looking to expand their European operations. So perhaps a summer seasonal might not be out of the realms of possibility.
  • Europe/domestic - no doubt they'll be many continental European routes that will come (and go), they're too many routes across the continent to speculate about! In terms of domestic routes, perhaps flybe will try to succeed where easyJet failed at Southend Airport. The owners have said they would like an EDI route.
Just my 2 pence.
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 20:34
  #634 (permalink)  
 
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Was at a presentation during the week on the expansion plans up to 2040. Very interesting how the place is likely to change.

For the short tern the first batch of new stands are aimed mainly at the regional / short haul aircraft size and will have been in service for a few months by this time next year.
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Old 15th Sep 2018, 21:02
  #635 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Donkey497 View Post
Was at a presentation during the week on the expansion plans up to 2040. Very interesting how the place is likely to change.

For the short tern the first batch of new stands are aimed mainly at the regional / short haul aircraft size and will have been in service for a few months by this time next year.
Where are these stands being built, assume remote stands for Q400 or E190 type aircraft to free up contact stands for larger aircraft?

What else can you share on the future plans and is the presentation available on line?
Sk1schoolsam is offline  
Old 17th Sep 2018, 21:14
  #636 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair have now loaded S19, not sure if it's complete.

So far I've noticed 1. Carcassonne ends next month and doesn't come back. 2. Hahn ends at the end of W18. 3. Berlin, which transfers from Glasgow at the start of W18 seems to disappear at the end of the winter. 4. Seville only operates this winter.
Some other routes which started in W17 are suspended this winter but restart for S19.
I'm sure others will find other changes.
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Old 17th Sep 2018, 21:21
  #637 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by inOban View Post
Ryanair have now loaded S19, not sure if it's complete.

So far I've noticed 1. Carcassonne ends next month and doesn't come back. 2. Hahn ends at the end of W18. 3. Berlin, which transfers from Glasgow at the start of W18 seems to disappear at the end of the winter. 4. Seville only operates this winter.
Some other routes which started in W17 are suspended this winter but restart for S19.
I'm sure others will find other changes.
I don't think the German schedules are loaded yet?
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Old 17th Sep 2018, 21:29
  #638 (permalink)  
 
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Some German destinations are loaded., but several aren't.
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Old 17th Sep 2018, 23:01
  #639 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Re Transaero, I worked at EDI back then and loads were typically between 10-30 per sector. Go figure.
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Old 18th Sep 2018, 10:11
  #640 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
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CAA passenger figures for August - When are they due to be released?
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