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Flybe-9

Old 23rd Nov 2018, 13:15
  #1101 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The96er View Post
There were no LHR-MAN remedy slots. There must be another source for the slots.
Flightriders post #1047 looks about right
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 13:27
  #1102 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe warned its full-year losses would be 22m blaming falling consumer demand, a weaker pound and higher fuel costs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46317706
Since 1 October, 6 weeks ago, Brent Spot has steadily fallen from USD 86 to USD 62 yesterday. And GBP:USD at 1.28 is the same as then and the same as for most of 2017, when they would have budgeted and bought fuel futures for 2018.

Do BBC journalists just regurgitate PR puff pieces nowadays without checking ?
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 13:28
  #1103 (permalink)  
c52
 
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I'll buy #1047. Thank you.

That means that all this summer Flybe have been entitled to slots at Heathrow and they couldn't find a single route they thought would be profitable, does it? (They started LHR operations in Spring 2017, so three IATA seasons ago AAUI). For interest, their press release announcing the flights had dramatically more flights: This route expansion means that, with effect from 26th March 2017, Flybe will offer up to 18 flights a day between London and Edinburgh, and 10 between London and Aberdeen. ( https://www.flybe.com/media/news/1612/20 )
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 15:49
  #1104 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by c52
Are Flybe using some of their Scottish slots at LHR for the Newquay services, or have they acquired slots by some other means?
I believe the LHR slots for the NQY service are specific to the route PSO, they are not "flybe's" - in other words they are not flybe assets and flybe can't choose to use them differently or dispose of them. Here's the press release announcing the service. You'll notice that the world and his mother is quoted expressing their delight - but not flybe. The existence of the LHR-NQY route is only slightly dependent on flybe: if flybe disappears tomorrow, a new PSO tender will be issued, a new operator will be found, and that new operator will be given these slots. (If you want to dig in further, see Article 9 of EC 793/2004.) I would therefore hazard a guess (though I don't know for sure) that the LGW slots used for NQY-LGW were similarly PSO-ringfenced rather than part of flybe's existing asset pool. (The logic here is that if you want to have a PSO service to a congested airport, there's not much point in limiting the prospective bidders to those airlines that happen to already have slots there.)
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 16:10
  #1105 (permalink)  
 
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There are no slots ringfenced at LHR for any PSO or other purpose. If you read my earlier post it explains how the slots have been obtained.
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 16:49
  #1106 (permalink)  
 
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Emphasis on HEATHROW and MANCHESTER.
But where on earth does this leave Birmingham

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/23/virgin-atlantic-in-talks-over-possible-takeover-of-flybe
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 17:02
  #1107 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe's LGW slots were/are their own and not part of any PSO deal.
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 17:25
  #1108 (permalink)  
 
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If Virgin think they are going to build any sort of scale out of flyBe in Heathrow, there is no chance until R3 opens. Manchester there are issues with different terminals, and how slots work with the first wave (inbound). The only way I can see this benefit anyone is to VS's owners - AF/KL, could be a valuable feed into their respective hubs.
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 18:11
  #1109 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flightrider View Post
There are no slots ringfenced at LHR for any PSO or other purpose. If you read my earlier post it explains how the slots have been obtained.
OK, I stand corrected, thank you. (In the Irish context, slots in DUB for the domestic PSO routes are ringfenced for the routes rather than for the airlines - clearly from what you say this is not so in the UK.) But then I'm puzzled about how this works from a PSO point of view. When the NQY PSO is up for renewal in 2 years or whatever, how can any other carrier bid for it without access to LHR slots? And if (hypothetically) flybe has disappeared by then, or become Virgin Eclectic focused on providing feed to LHR and MAN and CDG and AMS, where are slots going to come from for another NQY PSO operator?
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 21:10
  #1110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post
And if (hypothetically) flybe has disappeared by then, or become Virgin Eclectic focused on providing feed to LHR and MAN and CDG and AMS, where are slots going to come from for another NQY PSO operator?
There won't be any. Flybe was able to acquire remedy slots for NQY by dint of it having flown to EDI and ABZ for two seasons. If Flybe becomes something else, the slots will no doubt transfer as long as the route is maintained. But if Flybe collapses the remedy slots will not be immediately available to other airlines for NQY and the route could be well and truly stuffed. Any wouldbe replacement PSO operator will likely have to find slots on the open market, which would no doubt mean the route will end up at somewhere like SEN, especially if Flybe's NQY slots at LGW are 'sold'. While we're at it, has anyone questioned how Flybe managed to get such an ideal set of slots for the LHR-NQY service? Isn't it remarkable they just happen to be at the right times? Access to the timings it needed are grounded in the IAG/BMI remedy deal too and it does not follow that a new entrant would get the same slots.
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 21:12
  #1111 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RoyHudd View Post
Virgin UK would be a great brand, to complement Virgin Atlantic. He's done a job with Virgin Trains, and I can see it happening again here.
Yeah LNER are much better now.
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Old 23rd Nov 2018, 22:15
  #1112 (permalink)  
 
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Cyrano, there are no ringfenced slots at Dublin for the Irish PSO operations either. They are the “property” of the incumbent and are not guaranteed to transfer if the operator of the PSO changes.

eastmids, your assessment is correct. If Flybe now sell the LGW slots as they can (and as is likely to raise cash) and they subsequently were unable to start the Heathrow PSO, any new operator would be stuffed as they would not be able to access the LHR slots. The only exception would be BA who may consider an emergency PSO award with a large subsidy if dangled in front of them. It is a very dangerous game for Newquay and Cornwall CC at the moment.


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Old 24th Nov 2018, 05:55
  #1113 (permalink)  
 
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It is a very dangerous game for Newquay and Cornwall CC at the moment.
Or they know more than the rest of us?
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 07:00
  #1114 (permalink)  
 
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Isn't it remarkable they just happen to be at the right times? Access to the timings it needed are grounded in the IAG/BMI remedy deal too and it does not follow that a new entrant would get the same slots

"Remarkable indeed....... suits the PR PUFF from DFT HAL and Failinggrayling to connect a regional airport to promote Heathrow connectivity at this difficult time"

Maybe the SW might have benefited from direct investment instead, that being a part of the 16bn it's going to cost the taxpayer!

That said if Crossrail is anything to go by it will be 25bn by the time it's built !
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 07:05
  #1115 (permalink)  
 
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If you work out where the value is in this for VS, you will also see why there is no value for BA/IAG. Unless someone further like Stobart comes to the party then rumours of a bidding war may well prove groundless.
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 08:47
  #1116 (permalink)  
 
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Well the share price has rocketed in the last few days so clearly there is some interest?
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 12:38
  #1117 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wycombe View Post
Well the share price has rocketed in the last few days so clearly there is some interest?
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/...GBGBXSET3.html

3 month high was 42, now at 18............
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 21:26
  #1118 (permalink)  
 
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Media reporting IAG front runners for Flybe
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 21:50
  #1119 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, that's in the Daily Telegraph business section released at 9pm tonight. Seems Flyb is loved after all.
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Old 24th Nov 2018, 22:14
  #1120 (permalink)  
 
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I do love that the DT article actually shows a loanair aircraft not a flybe one


cs
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