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Old 26th Nov 2018, 21:39
  #1181 (permalink)  
 
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Is there any actual solid info to back up the VS/IAG talks coming from any sources. If both walk away what's options are left to BE. Not many I would humbly suggest other than a potential nose dive in share price.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 21:50
  #1182 (permalink)  
 
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I'd been thinking the same, the STK contracts up soon isn't it? Goodness knows what change of direction there has been in the boardroom at STK in recent times.

I think with the dash/ejet, you could expand the EIR offer to about 20 a/c flying Dublin to more marginal mainland Europe destinations.

​​​​​​The ATR isn't best suited to transatlantic feeder services, there has been many a story about lack of hold capacity.

Some frames could go into help BACF at LCY. With a carving knife to the rest of the bases and routes and with IAGs buying power, then I would think it would be possible to run the op profitably.

We could push the boat further if there has been any fall out with YW since WX merged with them. Having witnessed first hand the absolute diabolical EI/WX service going on at LCY - there are going to be some big falls out. I've never had such a bad experience with any airline.

The bigger question however is why? EIR runs very well at present, unless they are playing very hard knowing it would be one hell of a task to swap it all over. The UK side of it would provide very little feed for BA unless they have plans to open up, say a MAN TA hub? If they get pre-clearance facilities it might be a possible.

I think it is wrong of people to say that because something didn't work in the past wouldn't work in the future. EI commuter/regional is a testament to that. I'd love to see a BA regional.

Flying regularly NCL-EXT/SOU intra UK flights are a godsend. I couldn't imagine doing it regularly via train - nor could I afford to! There is space for a UK regional carrier but one that is well run and perhaps a little less ambitious to take over Europe.

Finally, everyone will be putting their name into the hat at this stage, if only to have a nose about in the financials.

Last edited by bigjim99; 26th Nov 2018 at 22:03.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 22:40
  #1183 (permalink)  
 
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@bigjim99 - I'm curious to learn more about your previous comment:

Having witnessed first hand the absolute diabolical EI/WX service going on at LCY - there are going to be some big falls out. I've never had such a bad experience with any airline.
Are you in a position to explain in more detail, or happy to take it off-line in a pm
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 00:37
  #1184 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Cazza_fly
Not necessarily? Afterall it is IAG that the reports are saying are interested NOT BA who are indeed of course a brand of the group. Realistically there would be no gain in rebranding the airline to anything BA. By doing so they would need to align the product to that of BA / Cityflyer, so not to have yet more variation and inconsistency service offering on BAs network. Things such as Club Europe would need to be offered, a product that could cost more than they make to offer on many of Flybe regional routes if even needed at all. It also increases costs and overheads.

The best bet would be to keep Flybe completely separate of any of the groups current branding just like all their other takeovers. Being prominently in the UK, it's understandable that they could potentially allign more with BA on some of the network by increasing code sharing and perhaps using the Flybe brand on some of their routes that would work better with a single class / low cost carrier e.g the Cityflyer regional summer routes but booked under the Flybe brand and service but using Cityflyers spare capacity at these tumes
I think the opposite. If IAG were interested, I think the real opportunity to increase value would be by rebranding to some variation of BA, as that is IAG's 'premium' brand in the UK, and Flybe is very much UK focused. BA seem to have been successful in positioning themselves brand wise above the low cost carriers and although fares are a factor they don't have to compete directly on fares. I think that is exactly what is needed to increase revenue for Flybe, because at the moment as Flybe they too much in the low cost carrier space.

They wouldn't need to need to match other BA brand standards exactly, as there are already some differences anyway between BA and BA Cityflyer. If the branded Flybe something else e.g. BA Express, BA Regional, FlyBA etc there could be further differentiation whilst still capitalising on the BA brand.

Rather than Club Europe being a cost, it would be an opportunity to increase revenue, as really it would be little more than providing a sandwich, and the seating configuration on the Q400's would mean they don't even have to block out any seats.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 07:28
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I'm of similar opinion, a new brand to mark new beginning. Leveraging success of bigger brands to help maximise brand identity.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 08:07
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perhaps rebrand to British European Airways with two letter code BE?
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 08:10
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I would suggest something along the lines of what they did with British Airtours - the same British Airways colourscheme - but title the aircraft 'British European'. Caledonian they did a similar thing with, but revised the branding to include the lion.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 08:17
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Or IAG might just keep them as Flybe? If they buy them.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 08:34
  #1189 (permalink)  
 
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I like the idea another poster had of making better use of Flybe aircraft for a take-over of the Aer Lingus Regional operation. After all, this should 'ideally' be in-house rather than lining the pockets of a completely separate business (to the group).
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 09:39
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From a strategic perspective IAG could see value in Flybe as follows

Eliminate competition at LCY.
Bring EI-R and Cityflyer contract flying ‘in-house’
Reduce AMS flows and reorientate to Dublin
BMI slots default back to BA (Would Loganair give it a go?) Tactically, BA could ring fence Flybe Heathrow for domestics such as JER GCI LDY DND rather than EDI ABZ.
Well trained and respected future pilot base for BA and EI.



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Old 27th Nov 2018, 10:56
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Not sure whether this has already been mentioned but in addition to the new LHR-Newquay 4x daily from 31 March 2019 they are adding a fifth rotation on LHR-EDI. This means they will have 12 weekday departures at LHR from Spring 2019.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 16:38
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Couple of things here from my perspective;
  • Willie Walsh said at the time of the withdrawal from regional flying that regional flying was better suited to low cost carriers - why would this perspective have changed when the LOCOs are stronger than ever?
  • The non London routes do not fit in terms of a network carrier strategy and on the high volume routes these are again hotly contested
  • Good suggestion that the Flybe vehicle could adopt EIR routes, but these are not up for renewal until 2022/3. What happens in the mean time?
  • For slots sake, LCY and LHR. BA are now contracting Stobart to do some of their flying at LCY. They are unlikely to be pursuing this take over for the sake of an LCY operation the size of a 4 aircraft operation at the airport? Approx.
  • Competition concerns will be raised, BA will not get the domestic slots at LHR, that would open up opportunities for easyJet to access LHR. Easyjet and Ryanair would definitely raise competition concerns, for sure.
The only thing I can think as a driver here is a desire to put tabs on Virgin and their Skyteam connectivity. Moreover, what sort of relationship is emerging between Stobart and BA, could BA be fronting a buyout that could be carved up between BA and Stobart? This would tick many boxes for the two. Including linkage to IAG for Stobart for future opportunities ...

Last edited by EI-BUD; 27th Nov 2018 at 17:07.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 16:51
  #1193 (permalink)  
 
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No one appears to have mentioned Lufthansa as a potential acquirer. LH group has been quite acquisitive over the years in Central Europe but their UK presence is fairly modest in comparison with say AF/KL. It would also strengthen Star Alliance in the UK as it is clearly the weakest airline grouping here at present.

But then again, maybe they got their fingers burnt with BMI.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 18:01
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Some fair points by EI-BUD though I would pick up on a couple.

While regional flying outside of London isn’t done by BA currently and is something WW got out of in the past, it doesn’t mean they couldn’t or shouldn’t do it now under the right conditions. For example, if routes or a base (I’m thinking the likes of SOU, EXT) are profitable and aren’t so likely to see LCC competition, why not keep them? There is precedent for this within IAG already, for example EIR have some relatively oddball routes out of ORK and SNN to the UK and France and Air Nostrum/IB Regional fly around regional Spanish cities and the Balearics.

You question a lead-in to 2022 for EIR routes but that isn’t too ridiculous. We’re almost in 2019 already with summer ‘19 on sale, pruning would likely occur in 2020 along with back-office integration, further transition in 2021 and you’re there already.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 02:01
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tigertanaka, surely the disease that is BREXIT will scupper any ideas that mainland European carriers have of investing into UK aviation?
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 08:17
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Depends what you call European. AF/KL is arguably Delta through the back door.

Last edited by 22/04; 28th Nov 2018 at 17:40.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 14:12
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It would also strengthen Star Alliance in the UK as it is clearly the weakest airline grouping here at present.
Not really a strategic worry, LH, OS, LX etc all feed their European hubs from the UK and even UNITED have more flights out of LHR than FRA. Each alliance doesn't need to have a based carrier in every market, that's the whole point of the alliance, to feed their hubs via spokes.
AF/KL is arguably Delta though the back door.
<insert your own joke here>

Last edited by Skipness One Foxtrot; 28th Nov 2018 at 15:42.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 17:52
  #1198 (permalink)  
 
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I know Oltonpete was having problems posting spreadsheet data in post #1175 dated 25th November.

I have taken the liberty of reproducing his file as a screenshot......



Hopefully I have done credit to your post, although I notice that you have the Newquay flight going to Newquay, and I'll PM you the full process.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 18:49
  #1199 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe

Originally Posted by Scottie Dog
I know Oltonpete was having problems posting spreadsheet data in post #1175 dated 25th November.

I have taken the liberty of reproducing his file as a screenshot......



Hopefully I have done credit to your post, although I notice that you have the Newquay flight going to Newquay, and I'll PM you the full process.
Cheers Scottie Dog

That looks good and this part of the post was pretty accurate I believe for last Monday, I did slip up on the number of active aircraft - it is 69 with around 3-4 in maintenance but still around 8 and 12 spare although aircraft 11 is back at BHX next week on certain days.

Pete
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 21:11
  #1200 (permalink)  
 
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BE and MAEL part company

Been reported that Monarch Engineering will no longer provide maintenance for Fly Be.

Allegations that Fly Be fell behind with its payments and MAEL have excluded them .

Big loss of business for MAEL probably 2 or 3 planes a night go through the BHX facility.Still if BE are not keeping up payments MAEL have little choice.

Nigel
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