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Old 26th Nov 2018, 10:30
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Originally Posted by Navpi
Great idea - and call it BA citiexpress or connect
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 10:51
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Originally Posted by Tinwald
Great idea - and call it BA citiexpress or connect
Not necessarily? Afterall it is IAG that the reports are saying are interested NOT BA who are indeed of course a brand of the group. Realistically there would be no gain in rebranding the airline to anything BA. By doing so they would need to align the product to that of BA / Cityflyer, so not to have yet more variation and inconsistency service offering on BAs network. Things such as Club Europe would need to be offered, a product that could cost more than they make to offer on many of Flybe regional routes if even needed at all. It also increases costs and overheads.

The best bet would be to keep Flybe completely separate of any of the groups current branding just like all their other takeovers. Being prominently in the UK, it's understandable that they could potentially allign more with BA on some of the network by increasing code sharing and perhaps using the Flybe brand on some of their routes that would work better with a single class / low cost carrier e.g the Cityflyer regional summer routes but booked under the Flybe brand and service but using Cityflyers spare capacity at these tumes
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 11:20
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset
Question for those in the know. I bought Flybe shares a while ago. If IAG buy Flybe what will happen to Flybe shares?
Depends on the intent of whoever the acquiring company is. No doubt Flybe have or will undertake share buyback, reducing supply of their shares on the open market, therefore (hopefully) bolstering the share price (limit supply, to drive investor demand).

In terms of what may happen to your stock, well there's a few possible scenarios which may unfold:

The acuiring company might suggest to buy the Flybe shares at a premium offer price per share that will exceed current market pricing and that could help drive present stock holders to sell up their holdings in the stock. That may become lucrative for you depending on your original purchase price per share, and don't forget if you end up with a capital gain, you got CGT liability. You may not have the option to do a bed & breakfast transaction under present circumstances which ordinarily is a method to reduce your CGT liability. Watch that space!

A lot depends on the nature within which any acquiring company is preferring to execute the acquisition of Flybe. If it's a cash exchange, whoever is buying Flybe will buy at a proposed and agreed share price, and Flybe shares will be replaced with the cash.

Or, who knows but the acquiring company might offer to replace Flybe shares with shares of the company doing the acquisition. You might end up with some combibation of cash and stock offer but anything could happen in a M&A event.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 11:32
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Originally Posted by proud_darcy
how long between announcement of sale accepted by shareholders and the shares being nullified.
(I know we are still a long way from an offer and sale being agreed)
I doubt you'll have the cheque before this Christmas, if that's your driver
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 11:38
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Thanks for the info, mik3bravo, much appreciated.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 11:52
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Why would a Spanish company, IAG, be allowed to own another British airline after Brexit?

Since Flybe's greatest contribution to connectivity helps AF/KL (I think), why would IAG want it - except to put a temporary end to that connectivity?
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 12:43
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Originally Posted by c52
Why would a Spanish company, IAG, be allowed to own another British airline after Brexit?

Since Flybe's greatest contribution to connectivity helps AF/KL (I think), why would IAG want it - except to put a temporary end to that connectivity?
Why not. Freedom of the markets and weak Pound makes it an attractive deal. Though post acquisition I remain intrigued at the notion there'll be an option to restructure Flybe, pool the fuel hedging in with that of the wider IAG consortium hedging, restructure aircraft leasing using investment vehicles taxed domiciled out of Dublin, using refreshed aircraft leasing arrangements using leasing arrangements domiciled from Dublin, that will free up significant cost overheads which are strangling Flybe. Registered the entire fleet to EI, refinance debt with a new bond, collateral or parental guarantee from IAG, strip out waste and back office, pool it all including IT using existing IT and back office functions of the wider IAG operations. These sort of measures give Flybe a better than fighting chance to prosper and grow and it will secure if not create greater employment opportunities for flight crew and cabin crew, ultimately save jobs, grow and contribute to the national economy. I'm quietly confident, this could end up quite good for Flybe and it's crews.

I'm not convinced some of the companies touted in the media as being potential buyers are the right buyers to deliver and capitalise on a deal. Deep pockets, investment heavy weight is needed in the debt markets to put a bond away, for me IAG is the 100-pound gorilla in this shake down. Just my humble personal opinion.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 15:13
  #1168 (permalink)  
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Do we know that whatever form Brexit takes, UK airlines will be allowed to be owned abroad?
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 15:30
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Based on what's happening in other sectors, I would expect the current majority EU ownership requirement to be converted to majority UK ownership, with any subsequent change having to go through parliament.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:07
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset
Question for those in the know. I bought Flybe shares a while ago. If IAG buy Flybe what will happen to Flybe shares?
You will receive communication from Flybe that a company has offered X for shares and the directors have recommend the offer is accepted. You will be provided with a low cost option to sell shares on.

BUT if you decide to hold onto them then once the buyers own 90% of the shares they will just cancel your shares and send you a cheque to the value of the shares you hold................. this will be at OFFER price. They cannot buy them for more or less than the OFFER price made to the other shareholders. This may seem a bit strange BUT this is to prevent a situation where someone with 10% of the shares gets a better price than someone with 10 shares.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:11
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
Based on what's happening in other sectors, I would expect the current majority EU ownership requirement to be converted to majority UK ownership, with any subsequent change having to go through parliament.
Agree and airlines line IAG / Easyjet / Ryanair will effect complulsory purchase of shares if required to ensure shareholding falls below 50% registered in UK.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:15
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
Except there isn't really the airlines with either the aircraft or the will nor the profile to run routes from airports like CWL EXT and SOU whether they are profitable or not. Imo they'll be lost never to be replaced.
At the moment to what I have highlighted. If closed down and there is a profitable option then others will emerge to open up routes.

Joy of capitalism is is people invest to make a profit. If nobody invests and it cuts capacity out of the market then prices will likely rise as existng operators seek to generate a better return. As consumers we hate this but working for a company we like this as this generates Profit to invest back into the business and pay a dividend to shareholders.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:21
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Originally Posted by unowot
Sadly I doubt IAG will have the slightest interest in Flybe. They would be returning to a market where they saw massive losses as BA Regional. I also Doubt if Virgin will be interested, their entry into the short haul business was a financial disaster and relatively short lived. As the larger markets are well served by carriers with lower seat costs, there is no future here for a carrier operating expensive turboprops. So the future is likely to be in Niche markets and by definition there are not too many of these that will support mid size turbo props. I do hope Flybe survives but I fear it will shrink to do this. Good Luck.
There is I believe quite a bit of truth in this. IAG worried that they will lose connecting passengers. Somehow I doubt this and would debate any value in it. They will also know how many people are connecting and what the revenue is.

If 150 pax are transferring per week from Flybe service from one airport and using LH services then it make be justifiable to ensure there is connectivity between that and LHR/LCY. If it is 2 a week then wouldn't spend any time on keeping route.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:26
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Originally Posted by macdo
Sadly. as has been proved over the last 20 years, most of your compatriots prefer to hop over the Severn Bridge and use BRS. Whatever the outcome of this negotiation, the future of feeder routes from CWL and others is looking pretty bleak. IMHO.
Bearing in mind Severn Tolls are over then this will also impact on whether to fly from CWL or BRS. Not just the cost but the biggeration factor of their being a Toll as well.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:30
  #1175 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mik3bravo
Why not. Freedom of the markets and weak Pound makes it an attractive deal. Though post acquisition I remain intrigued at the notion there'll be an option to restructure Flybe, pool the fuel hedging in with that of the wider IAG consortium hedging, restructure aircraft leasing using investment vehicles taxed domiciled out of Dublin, using refreshed aircraft leasing arrangements using leasing arrangements domiciled from Dublin, that will free up significant cost overheads which are strangling Flybe. Registered the entire fleet to EI, refinance debt with a new bond, collateral or parental guarantee from IAG, strip out waste and back office, pool it all including IT using existing IT and back office functions of the wider IAG operations. These sort of measures give Flybe a better than fighting chance to prosper and grow and it will secure if not create greater employment opportunities for flight crew and cabin crew, ultimately save jobs, grow and contribute to the national economy. I'm quietly confident, this could end up quite good for Flybe and it's crews.

I'm not convinced some of the companies touted in the media as being potential buyers are the right buyers to deliver and capitalise on a deal. Deep pockets, investment heavy weight is needed in the debt markets to put a bond away, for me IAG is the 100-pound gorilla in this shake down. Just my humble personal opinion.
Love your optimism but I don't see a good side coming from this. More like a Monarch story. Hopefully your are right.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:32
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Originally Posted by racedo
Bearing in mind Severn Tolls are over then this will also impact on whether to fly from CWL or BRS. Not just the cost but the biggeration factor of their being a Toll as well.
The Severn Tolls have never really been a barrier to people from Wales flying from Bristol and most people from the Bristol side don't even give CWL a thought when looking for flights from the region .
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:38
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Having used the current LGW-NQY route I can say with fairly good knowledge that the service carries a decent proportion of connecting passengers, certainly on the morning and evening rotations, I can’t speak for the middle one as iv never used it.

But considering they codeshare with BA, VS and EK on the route it’s not surprising the see bags appearing at NQY from all over. I’m certainly not the only one down this way that uses the route to connect put it that way


cs
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:43
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could IAGbuy the company and use part of it to replace Stobart at Aer Lingus regional? That would take up 10 aircraft and allow for e-jet expansion. Another half dozen could operate thinner routes ex LCY.

How do Flybe and Stobart CASK compare?
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:55
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
The Severn Tolls have never really been a barrier to people from Wales flying from Bristol and most people from the Bristol side don't even give CWL a thought when looking for flights from the region .
Heard that one before from people about WTF wants to drive to an airport in Cambridge, for a flight to Europe, from Surrey, when Gatwick is just down the road. Saving 200 for 2 people suddenly converted people very quickly.

The tolls are just an additional cost people factor in, removed then it is no longer at back of people's mind.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:58
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Originally Posted by Copenhagen
could IAGbuy the company and use part of it to replace Stobart at Aer Lingus regional? That would take up 10 aircraft and allow for e-jet expansion. Another half dozen could operate thinner routes ex LCY.

How do Flybe and Stobart CASK compare?
Why spend so much on buying old equipment when can buy new and set up own network to suit you. If buy whole of Flybe then responsible for everything including redundancies etc.
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