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Old 27th Oct 2016, 08:29
  #3021 (permalink)  
 
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Do we know if it is 18 new routes, or 15 new routes plus the three existing? 600,000 additional pax suggests the former, but I can't find the report so don't know for sure.

600k pax equates to each of the four aircraft being a SSJ and flying three trips per day at 70% load factor which sounds reasonable. I'm guessing these will be mainly leisure routes at a low frequency given the number of routes, but maybe the likes of Dublin and Edinburgh will be in there.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 08:32
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EBITDA is just as important a figure as the after tax profits imo.
Let's take yourshop as an example. Let's assume they've have recently upgraded their equipment at a cost of £1million. This equipment will probably last them 25 years, but accounting rules state they have to depreciate it in 4 years.

They make a EBITDA profit of £200,000. Due to the accounting rules they show a loss of £50,000. The profits don't change for the next 5 years. In year 5 the equipment has been depreciated and the annual profit is now £200,000 a year. They've also got an extra £1 million in the bank that was depreciated in the previous years, but not needed for another 20.

So would you not have invested due to the "paper loss"?

I'm a Stobart shareholder and am perfectly happy with the progress. It would have been nice to see higher passenger numbers by now, but hopefully that will come soon enough. BTW, I expect there are a high number of fixed costs and an increase in passenger numbers should exponentially improve the profit numbers.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 10:29
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Serko,

Stobart depreciate building assets over 50 years (2% per annum straight line), not 4 years, but thanks for the lesson in mock accounting.

As a shareholder, your quarterly dividend is being paid for out of investment property disposals; profit before tax across the group of £11.4m - profit on disposal of Speke property investment of £11.6m. When the investment properties run out, so will your dividend.

ANYWAY, BACK ON TOPIC, the airport continues to make a loss and it is unlikely that the Cityjet SSJ100's will turn the loss into a profit. However very exciting to see the SSJ100 operating from SEN - hopefully Belfast, Glasgow and Edinburgh will be part of the mix.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 10:37
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Originally Posted by serko
I'm a Stobart shareholder and am perfectly happy with the progress.
I stand to be corrected, but weren't you the guy who was also a Planestation shareholder?
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 11:19
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SOUTHEND RISING - Latest news from Southend Rising
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 11:24
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Since when have Stobart been paying a Quarterly dividend ?
.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 11:45
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Quarterly dividend

Qtrly div since August I believe but Serco is your man - he has the shares so he should know.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 11:47
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It should be noted that the Southend Rising report quotes Andrew Tinkler as saying "Discussions with Cityjet are at an early stage ....", so not exactly cut and dried just yet.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 11:57
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Well they need to get a move on with their discussions if they are to introduce up to 18 new routes in April next year, we are nearly in November already and they need time to market them.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 13:32
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Marketing will be crucial. FR and LS are currently spending a small fortune across several media. I agree with aurigny72 they need to get on if they are to hit the ground running in April.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 14:19
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Terms signed with cityjet for 18 new routes and discussions with easy ongoing regarding a 4th based aircraft.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 14:23
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interesting times ahead


anyone care to suggest 18 routes for the 4 based aircraft ? and the 4thy based U2 ?




cs
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 14:38
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Originally Posted by rowly6339
Terms signed with cityjet for 18 new routes and discussions with easy ongoing regarding a 4th based aircraft.
Have SEN actually achieved V1 !!!
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 15:02
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anyone care to suggest 18 routes for the 4 based aircraft ?
Carlisle, obviously!

Fits the business model!
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 15:46
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Some suggestions by others on various forums include:

"Malta (surely.....?), Corfu, Montpellier, Copenhagen, Bergen and Oslo, some Eastern European destinations such as Krakow, Prague and Budapest and some Euro city destinations such as Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Vienna, Antwerp, Milan. Within the British Isles surely Edinburgh and Dublin are worth another shot. There are several destinations in France which Ryanair have abandoned recently - might be worth picking up some of those. Who would have thought SEN-Rennes would have been so successful? "

"Malta? Porto? Cologne? Corfu? Dusseldorf? Bordeaux? La Rochelle, Grenoble, Krakow, Dublin, Belfast, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Newcastle, Carlisle, Copenhagen, Murcia....."

"Manchester, Newcastle, Doncaster, Newquay, Aberdeen"

Perm any 18 from those....... many just flights of fancy, I fear!!
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 16:14
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A much more in-depth look from Routesonline with comments from Glyn Jones.
CityJet set to open up to four aircraft operation at London Southend :: Routesonline

- Also expects 10% growth from easyJet in 2017 (so probably no 4th based aircraft)
- Another article mentions that World Duty Free will also arrive next year

Last edited by tws123; 24th Nov 2016 at 10:55.
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 17:09
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Pure speculation but I suspect a mix of route types.

I think there will be some domestic/Ireland. I'm pretty sure Dublin will return, possibly Edinburgh but less likely.. Derry could make good sense as FR are giving it up and I'm sure a good deal would be offered. Possibly even a PSO? Also Newquay and Inverness, certainly not daily. I say those because the weak £ will encourage people to stay in the UK - NQY is an obvious draw and has been done before and INV isn't served from LCY or STN.

I think as I said a few days ago there may be some destinations without London service - Maribor is likely given recent history, Kristiansand, Erfurt, Esbjerg as someone else said.

I think there will be a couple of 'stag' destinations and big cities that provide reliable traffic year-round - e.g. Berlin, Krakow, Prague, Rome.

Some European cities that aren't particularly well served - e.g. Turin, Innsbruck

Finally some summer sun not already available from SEN - anything from Corfu, Malta, Dubrovnik, Naples, Catania, Reus, Murcia, Nice and I'm sure others.

Exciting times.
I
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Old 27th Oct 2016, 17:24
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I could see Berlin and Krakow working (never understood why easy dropped Krakow). I could also see a Paderborn route work considering whats left of British Forces Germany being concentrated in this area, when i was based there a lot of guys and girls would have loved the chance to pop home for a long weekend without the long drive back that most did when on leave.
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Old 28th Oct 2016, 04:07
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Not sure why Maribor would be a choice; I would expect it was dependent on Adria's ability to market it in Slovenia rather than and demand in the Southend / East London / Essex area!
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Old 28th Oct 2016, 06:00
  #3040 (permalink)  
 
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Don't want to be a bit of a kill joy here but hold on a minute the deal between Stobart and Cityjet has not actually been fully signed as I understand it only an interim agreement. There is no way that 18 new routes are going to be operated next year straight away so let us not get to much ahead of ourselves. Routes which operate from LCY I would suggest would not operate from Southend probably with the exception of Dublin, so steady on please.
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