BIRMINGHAM - 6

[OltonPete]

Transat

CabinCrewe

Is the link to show flights from Exeter?

There are flights bookable but they start on flybe to Manchester as does Newcastle but to Gatwick.

There is a reasonable Sikh population in the Toronto area and I believe there is a bit of VFR traffic from the Midlands but looking at the figures probably insufficient to support even once week. I understand Vancouver has a larger Sikh ex-pat population and in the past I know from work there was again VFR traffic all which no doubt be classed as low-yield.

SAS - More Blue 1 aircraft poping up on the ARN from October and CPH for April is showing double daily A319.

May pax - Airport seem to be waiting for the CAA to release their figures but most indicators suggest they will up and I thought as it was already mid-June they might have issued a press release first - I hope that is not a bad sign.

Pete

[CabinCrewe]

Yes looks like the EXT flights maybe FlyBe connections via MAN and GLA however you have to get to the booking stage and still no mention that that is the case....

[CabinCrewe]

Yes we have realised why they still remain as destinations on the TS website thanks

[Alvechurch]

May Passenger Stats

Crikey, I knew BHX was struggling lately but the latest May passenger stats are showing just 106154 -86.6%
Now that's what you call a quiet month.

[Guest 112233]

Alvchuurch

I've just had a decco at the stats too - and you are correct. it may be a figure in the wrong place or a fault in the source of the statistics but are these figures checked prior to publication? - I would imagine that would be the case, because of the potential commercial ramifications

I bet OP will be in contact with some details.

edit:

There's something very wrong - according to the Stats there are gaps BHX Brussels and BHX CPH for a start.

See : http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...nal_Routes.pdf

CAT III

[Planeaddict]

Crikey, I knew BHX was struggling lately but the latest May passenger stats are showing just 106154 -86.6%
Now that's what you call a quiet month.

Ouch. I still think that's incorrect - how is it even possible for an airport like BHZ to drop 86% in a month?

[EI-A330-300]

CAA have updated the stats for BHX and May traffic is up 7.3% with 847,869 passengers. All route stats have also being added.

Updated at 15.35.

[OltonPete]

May Pax

Cheers EI-A330-300

The rest of the figures per the CAA: -

May 2013 847869 +7.3% rolling year 8914193 +3.4%

ATM's for May 7900 +0.6% rolling year 82522 -1.1%

Third best May ever with June 2005 852K and May 2008 877K.

Business routes were a bit flat.

Barcelona was way up but that was due to increased capacity as was TK but still a 126 average pax around 80% load factor. Emirates was up 14% but still disappointing as they sent in more two class aircraft than the previous May and I was expeting it to push 40K - 67% load factor!!

BHX-Islamabad was down but first time I noticed it beat LHR-ISB.

Some BMIR figures - TLS averaged 16 or 32%, GOT averaged 22 or 45%. Lyon was of course shared with flybe. The combined figures averaged 40 with a load factor of 50%. If the flybe seat-map is reliable then BE are doing okay and hopefully BM will find an alternative route if they are not making money.

Toulouse was a bit disappointing but early days I suppose but GOT is showing promise

Pete

[getonittt]

Some BMIR figures - TLS averaged 16 or 32%, GOT averaged 22 or 45%. Lyon was of course shared with flybe. The combined figures averaged 40 with a load factor of 50%. If the flybe seat-map is reliable then BE are doing okay and hopefully BM will find an alternative route if they are not making money.

Toulouse was a bit disappointing but early days I suppose but GOT is showing promise

I agree, particularly as GOT is not served direct by other airports apart from GAT/LHR & STN . When I used the TLS flight the average pax was about as you say but they still only had 1 check in for all flights and they still haven't introduced web check in yet. Now they have changed the times of the TLS I will not use it again , the original planned times were good , hopefully they can re jig the schedule because this route can be viable .

[LAX_LHR]

I agree, particularly as GOT is not served direct by other airports apart from GAT/LHR & STN

Tis served from MAN by BA/Sun Air 11 weekly, but continues to Aarhus so the departure boards tend to get confused sometimes and thus appears like it is not served.

[getonittt]

Thank you , i stand corrected. My reason for thinking GOT was not served from MAN was that :

a) It did not seem to come up on fare search engines.
b) the CAA passenger stats from MAN to GOT were negligible .

I now see that it does come up on fare search engines , but at the crazy eye watering end of the fare scale which i don't usually look at.
That also explains point b.

[OltonPete]

May Routes

Passenger figure source: CAA
Average load - a daily log from a local source
Load factors - estimates using planespotters.net etc

The overall May figure was excellent but some of the individual loads are quite average and often on some business routes not as good as April.

I have left out some flybe French routes as there was only one flight.

Some intersting sun routes - Palma and Faro over 13000 fewer pax than EMA.
in May.

Good to see Istanbul maintain a good load factor with the extra capacity but EK disappointed despite the fact it was up but fantastic compared to the GLA and NCL load factors although as a mature route you would expect it be better.

BRUSSELS...........9727 (9083)......42pax......52%

LARNACA............7110(7134).....162 pax...82%

PAPHOS................3869(4165)....149 pax...75%

Copenhagen.......6936 (7510).....71 pax.....70%

Bordeaux.............550 (nil)........69 pax-----40%

Lyon..................2782 (o).........50 pax.....50%

MONTPELIER ....1936 (2041).....108 pax....57%

NICE................4985 (4035)......113 pax....66%

PARIS (CDG).....30145 (29946)....89 pax....75%

Perpignan..........1539(nil)........96 pax......51%

Toulouse............541(nil).........16 pax....32%

BERLIN (TEGEL)...4524(nil).......81 pax...63%

DUSSELDORF....15511 (16392)..50 pax....57%

FRANKFURT ....21663(22407).....101 pax....72%

Hamburg..........2907(4625)......56 pax....65%

HANOVER.......3678 (5185)......59pax.....72% - daily from double daily

Munich...........13696 (14727).. 83 pax.....68%

STUTTGART.....3557 (3681).....38 pax.....49%

GIBRALTAR......2781 (nil).........107 pax...61%

Heraklion.........711(2644).....151 pax....79%

BUDAPEST........0(2585)...........nil pax....nil

Cork..............6292(6895) ....52 pax....72%

DUBLIN.........44336 (42594)....124 pax..68%
...
KNOCK............2479 (4688).......43 pax.....66%

SHANNON........2814 (2250)......45 pax.....70%

WATERFORD....1522 (1484)........43 pax....56%

BERGAMO........3416 (nil) ........131 pax...70%

MILAN MXP)....4632 (6523).....75 pax...66% - ZB & BE in 2012

ROME (FCO)....9210 (7348) ..149 pax..81% ZB & WW in 2012

TRIESTE .........2011(1978) ....112 pax...59%

VENICE............5235 (2757)....154 pax..85%

KAUNAS..........2815 (2893).....156 pax....83%

MALTA...........2939(2670)......163 pax...86% -

AMSTERDAM...41161(41865)......89pax....80%

ISLAMABAD.....7970 (8356) ......234 pax...72%

BYDGOSZCZ.......4393 (4807).....169 pax...89%

GDANSK..........2550 (2913).....159 pax....84%

KATOWICE........4524(4260)....162 pax...85%

KRAKOW,..........2856 (nil) .........159 pax..84%

RZESZOW.........3075 (3080).....171 pax....90%

FARO..............16113(19247)....164 pax...82%

FUNCHAL.........2259 ((nil) ........126 pax...72%

BRATISLAVA....4356(4386)......167 pax...89)

ALICANTE.......26210(26226)....156 pax..80%

ALMERIA..........3105 (3389)......173 pax....(81%

BARCELONA..... 13588(3563)......142 pax....73%

GIRONA.......... ...1968(5118)........123 pax...65%

IBIZA................600o (5749)......182 pax...72%

MAHON.............4286 (5995).........165 pax....80%

MALAGA..........25635 (26507) .....169 pax...86%

MURCIA ...... .5045 (8709)........148 pax...79% - 2012 WW & FR

PALMA ......20015 (19487).....156 pax....81%

REUS...............3470 (3439).......124 pax... Â 66%

ARRECIFE.........10591 (8187)......189 pax...95%

FUERTEVENTURA..5465(2766)......152 pax...77%

LASPALMAS..........6145(6051)........162 pax..82%

TENERIFE (TFS).....14184 (13000) ....173pax..88%

GOTEBORG...........752(30)........22 pax.....45%

Stockholm...........2733(nil)........65 pax... 45-50% approx

Dubrovnik.... ....2573 (2460).....107 pax...74%

Split............... .922 (nil)... ...92 pax....53 %

ZURICH.............8278(10920)....67 pax...68%

Bodrum.............3467(2986).....144 pax....76%

DALAMAN.........9652(8437)..... 156 pax....79%

ISTANBUL........11081(7407)....126 pax....81%

Ashkhabad........3745(4471).....104 pax...56%

DUBAI............. 34925 (30542)..282 pax...67%

Toronto.............1441(2823).....240 pax...93%

NEW YORK (EWR)..8921(9361)....154 pax..91%..

Pete

[LAX_LHR]

Thank you , i stand corrected. My reason for thinking GOT was not served from MAN was that :

a) It did not seem to come up on fare search engines.

b) the CAA passenger stats from MAN to GOT were negligible .

I now see that it does come up on fare search engines , but at the crazy eye watering end of the fare scale which i don't usually look at.That also explains point b.

Off topic but to wrap this up, MAN-GOT is one of these seldom seen routes which proves load factors are not the be all of a route. It is well supported by business links at both ends who prompted BA to take over the route after City Airline/Skyways went under (BHX-GOT by the same airline had already been dropped by the time they went bankrupt). The business links are so good for MAN-GOT that despite its paltry loads, is in the top 5 highest yielding routes for MAN, beaten only by Libyan Arab TIP-MAN and AA ORD-MAN.

[Bagso]

Yields are indeed king

On that BBC 2 prog last night some of the loads quoted were paltry so I assume pax were paying top end fares to make the flights worthwhile.

Olton Pete.
Does EK BHX outperform GLA ?
The Scotsman which may not be impartial were quoting EK sources at weekend as suggesting A380 may be put on the GLA route OR an extra daily service.

Somebody maybe blowing smoke up the Scots kilts but .......interesting nonetheless.

[jabird]

MAN-GOT that despite its paltry loads, is in the top 5 highest yielding routes for MAN, beaten only by Libyan Arab TIP-MAN and AA ORD-MAN

Just to clarify - I take it you are defining yields as average cost per occupied seat per sector, no account of distance?

Yes, we hear time and again that load factor alone is no judge or route profitability, but surely for an ongoing viable route, you need both?

Or is the base fare for these routes so high that there's never any attempt to use YM to offer more attractive fares as that would simply be "giving away" a seat, say for £100 per sector that punters are quite happy to pay 3x that amount for?

My curiosity is because I've always assumed that this kind of "f%^& off" pricing only existed in highly imperfect markets - such as the rail service that connects both the Brum and Manchester areas to London, and not in reality.

[LAX_LHR]

Just to clarify - I take it you are defining yields as average cost per occupied seat per sector, no account of distance

Yes per sector, as there are some other routes that per mile bring in more.

Yes, we hear time and again that load factor alone is no judge or route profitability, but surely for an ongoing viable route, you need both?

In terms of the airline alone, if the yield brought in covers costs and brings in profit ahead of load, then the latter does not matter too much. If you have, say, 30 seats, and you sell 10 seats at £400 a pop, that's going to bring in more money than 30 seats at £100 a pop.
High volume passenger numbers are usually more beneficial to the airport, as it brings in more money from fees (airlines pay per passenger for part of the fees), and also the increased spend at the airport.

Or is the base fare for these routes so high that there's never any attempt to use YM to offer more attractive fares as that would simply be "giving away" a
seat, say for £100 per sector that punters are quite happy to pay 3x that amount for?

Well, in further to above, if you can sell your seats at £400 from the offset and make a profit on 10, then why would you start cheaper 'just to fill the cabin' and bring in less profit. Also, in the case of MAN-GOT, its well used by regular customers, so why risk annoying them by selling cheaper tickets to fill a plane up you are already making a profit on.
Also, if you have a regular stream, why go fishing for extra when you have sufficient as is.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Weak loads are weak loads and those are weak.

WWW

[jabird]

why risk annoying them by selling cheaper tickets to fill a plane up you are already making a profit on

Yes - I get all the logic, but I've always felt you either need an incredibly strong product that people are happy to pay a whole lot more for, or the ability to block your competition if they wanted to come onto the route (hence the West Coast trains example).

I suppose T3 also play this game too, but they know that any routes they operate that get too busy will be an open call for BE to come along with a
larger a/c and much lower prices.

If the GOT market has been well measured (and it certainly looks like it has), then these routes will no doubt remain safe from any competitor coming along, as they'd have to significantly drop yield to fill a larger frame.

I think the other destination of interest here is BLL - formerly operated by Ryanair, but not on a business friendly frequency, and certainly not a business friendly service. I did BHX-BLL for 1p in 2009, and IIRC the couple of other passengers travelling didn't pay much more either.

[Ringwayman]

I've seen adverts for MAN-BLL that are slighly more than the 1p you paid for BHX-BLL. Try £343 one-way! You really don't need to get too many passengers on board if that is what is being paid.

[hammerb32]

Just been looking for fares for Gothenburg from Brum, £395 each way was the quote so hopefully a positive sign.

As per Faddypainter on ssc, Air India schedule shows 4 times a week to Delhi with a 787 from Aug 1st.