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Old 28th Mar 2014, 14:27
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Record Breaking Passenger Number

It's reported on a spotters forum that the record for the maximum number of pax aboard a SEN departure was broken yesterday when an easyJet A320 carried 177 pax on the SEN-FAO departure.

The previous record was set almost exactly 42 years ago(!) at Easter 1972 when a BAF CL44 departed with 170 pax on the SEN-OST route.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 15:27
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Think we could rule out domestic flights now with the slots suggested in LCY.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 16:10
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Think we could rule out domestic flights now with the slots suggested in LCY.
Yes it looks like a killer for the routes in question, but it would still leave open the possibility of EDI,GLA,ABZ,NCL,MAN from SEN in the future, and I suppose BHD in theory could be run as an EIR route.

Maybe next week's routes announcement will give us a clue as to the longer term. And as pointed out before,none of those LCY routes are guaranteed yet.

Last edited by Tagron; 28th Mar 2014 at 23:47. Reason: Minor Clarification
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 21:13
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I trust that SEN and Stobart Air management were aware of Flybe’s newly acquired LCY slots when the franchising deal was concluded. Granted that acquisition of slots may not in itself guarantee the routes will be flown,the size of the allocation seems a strong pointer to Flybe’s intentions at LCY, which of course is SEN's nearest competitor airport.
Closest yes, but i don't know about competitor. LCY is primarily a business airport.... Unless the good people of east London are going on their hols to Zurich wearing posh suits and carrying a bag of financial instruments.

Southend is aimed at the pleasure market and it will stay that way until the train connection to London is improved.
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Old 28th Mar 2014, 22:47
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until now, I have not commented on the Stobart Air speculation of planned routes. There is no point. Wait another week and we will all see the answers, whether we agree they are sensible viable or not.
What I want to say, as a non expert in airline operations is this.
If I won the dream 150 million euros on the lottery I always had a dream to set up an airline from my home town SEN.
Lessons can be learnt perhaps. For example, if EZY showed that on the Belfast, Edinburgh and Newquay routes that they cant fill a 155 seater A319, but did achieve average loads of 90+ pax, then if I was to operate 50/70 seater aircarft I would surely stand a good chance on those unwanted routes.
I believe Stobart Air will jump in on a couple of those unwanted EZY routes, plus a couple of new destinations. There is no point me guessing. All will be announced next week. We can all say crazy things or may be opinions, but at the end of the day, we should wish the airline good luck and prosperity, not slag them off just because for some they haven't come to your local airport.
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 00:00
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Smile tophat27dt

couldnt have put it better myself
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 00:34
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Right hope Cyrano doesn't mind me posting this but this is a great thing to read when people suggest routes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickBarnes
Yes I think it would be profitable, believe they got loads of around 30 pax when they used the dash 8 which wasn't quite good enough, but on a d328 that would nearly be full, so here's hoping because there is definatly the room for it.
It doesn't really work like that, Nick. There's this thing called revenue management.

So for example on the Q400, maybe (I'm making up these numbers) the first 20 seats were sold at £40 one-way, the next 20 at £60, the next 20 at £80 and so on. If there were 30 passengers a flight on average, the majority of them would in all probability have paid the lower fares.

On a 31-seater D328, things will be different, of course because the aircraft is smaller but also because the cost per seat is higher, so the average fare needs to be higher. So maybe there'll only be 5 seats at £40, then 5 at £60, then 10 at £80. The average fare across 30 passengers on a 31-seater aircraft will be a lot more than the average fare across 30 passengers on a 78-seater. And unless airline passengers are insensitive to price a higher average price means lower average demand.

In other words, if you had an average of 30 passengers a flight on a 78-seater and you switch to a 31 seater, you won't have an average of 30 passengers, because the fares on offer will be higher so the demand will be lower.

(And even more basically, even if the fares were magically the same, you still wouldn't have an average of 30 passengers. That figure is an average across different passenger loads, for example if five flights carried 10, 30, 25, 50, and 35 passengers the average is 30. If the highest possible number of passengers in a flight is 31 rather than 78, your average is going to be a lot smaller.)

And finally: you make the entirely wrong assumption that a full or nearly-full flight means a profitable flight.
So as you can get from that using a smaller aircraft still may not work just because there was enough people on the a319 to fill a ATR72
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 06:12
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NickBarnes beat me to it with his post but his post is spot on.

Passenger numbers are price sensitive so Easyjet should never have a problem filling seats as the aircraft starts to fill with passengers buying discounted tickets but I would have thought that tickets prices for seat 50 and seat 70 would be substantially lower than Stobart could offer them for if it followed the Easyjet pricing model.

Stobart might well have a different model for pricing tickets with higher low priced tickets and cheaper maximum priced tickets. If the airline gets the balance right then there is no reason why domestic routes could not succeed. Also a prop aircraft is best suited for short duration routes so will have a lower fuel burn which all helps to keep ticket prices down.

BUT London passengers have a big choice of airports to fly from and while most would be checking out Easyjet, BA and Ryanair's websites how many would be looking at FlyBe's website? Even if they did most passengers would vote with their wallets so Stobart would still have to aline ticket prices close to the likes of Easyjet which would hurt margins.
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 09:31
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I agree with LTNman.

It had to happen sometime......
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 22:11
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SEN/DUB

AER LINGUS/RE/STOBART AIR are showing a code share with ETHIAD REGIONAL on tomorows flights to DUBLIN,could ETHIAD be thinking of using SEN as a posible base?
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 22:22
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They might codeshare on some flights, but doubt they would actually fly to SEN themselves on the basis that they plan to operate STN-DUS, and they are still serving CBG too.
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Old 29th Mar 2014, 23:36
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as far as I know, Etihad have finished with Cambridge.
Maybe Stobarts have come to some agreement with them, but they are quite rightly very secretive with their negotiations until it all becomes 100% fact.
Next week, we will learn a lot more of the truth.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 08:13
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All may not be well...

Stobart Whistleblower

From the article regarding the open letter to the SFO can it be assumed that the Stobart AGM will be livelier than normal?

Will the airport be able to survive if the sale of the trucking asset gets blocked? Interesting times at Stobarts!
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 09:44
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tophat27dt

Etihad recently announced they would fly to Verona from CBG (effective 17 May 2014). But your as good as right in that they have closed the original 4 primary routes which was the main bulk of their operations.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 09:50
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A320 usage

I see that easyJet are now selling A320 capacity on a number of routes from SEN, not just to TFS.

Today, for example, the ALC, GVA and VCE departures will all be operated by an A320 with over 175 seats sold on each. This seems to be a change of policy whereby previously an available A320 was sometimes used on SEN routes to cover for delays etc. but seat capacity beyond 156 was never sold in advance.

It would be nice if an A320 could continue to be SEN-based after April, when the TFS finishes for the winter season, but I suspect summer fleet availability may be too limited to allow this.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 10:12
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Etihad CBG

As far as I understand the Verona flights are charter flights for a local tour operator. I was referring to the scheduled routes, which have now ended.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 10:15
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SEN/DUB

mikkie 4, where did you find that information ? I have just looked but cannot see it anywhere. Did something slip out by mistake that has now been corrected?

As I understand it Etihad (mainline) already place their flight code EY on Aer Lingus UK-Dublin and Dublin-USA services. It might seem a logical development to extend the scheme to include the EI Regional routes like SEN-DUB. But Etihad Regional use a different flight code (F7) and I cannot see what purpose it would serve to attach it to any of these routes.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 10:16
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A320 flights today

It will be interesting to find out if the A320 actually carries more than 155 pax on its routes today or if it was being used to cover an A319 non-op for some reason! The growth on some of the routes are amazing. I have a soft spot for Krakow and hope EZY will keep the service going.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 10:41
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dt

As I say, the full 180 seat capacity of the A320 has been sold in advance so certainly is not operating as A319 cover.
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Old 30th Mar 2014, 10:43
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Tagron -


If you consult the "Arrivals / Departures" section for SEN on www.flightstats.com the afternoon DUB / SEN / DUB flights are shown with an Etihad Codeshare flight number. Also the evening DUB-SEN flight but not - currently at least - the return leg.


Apologies to mikkie for jumping in!!
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