MANCHESTER - 9

[anothertyke]

I wonder what the evidence is. Just out interest I put in three random dates in Jan Mar and June American MAN-JFK economy. Direct was £30, £70 and £140 cheaper return respectively than the cheapest via LHR. How sure are you that direct is usually more expensive?

[hammerb32]

Anothertyke,

Not sure it's every really possible to produce evidence other than searching the websites. I've just looked at United flights to Newark for the month of May, all but 4 flights are more expensive from MAN then LHR, the 4 flights that aren't are the 4 Sunday flights where flights from LHR are £27 higher. On all other days however direct flights from MAN and BHX are more expensive and at points way more expensive than direct from LHR.

[anothertyke]

Hammer

Agree that it's tiring on the fingers to generate evidence.

I was responding to the claims above that MAN direct is usually more expensive than MAN via a hub. On a small sample of American to ORD and JFK and Delta to ATL I've convinced myself that proposition is not true for any of the cases I looked at. The Delta fare via AMS is pretty consistently £15 more than direct. The American differential seems to jump around quite a bit as I said above.

Your point is different.I only looked at a couple of the comparison you were making but in those cases the American fares out of MAN and LHR direct to JFK seemed pretty close together. I didn't get the impression American were pushing traffic towards the hub at this end.

[LAX_LHR]

Etihad has released its top 10 routes for 2013.

Manchester comes in at 6th, which I find pretty impressive when you consider how many routes it serves. Likely to stay at 6th as the extra capacity from the B77W From June onwards is unlikely to surpass Paris.

Routes News - Etihad reveals top 10 busiest routes

[Skipness One Echo]

When I worked at Expedia for a number of years,that was always the case with the idea behind the pricing. AA MAN-JFK in winter can be cheap as chips due to very low points in seasonal demand not being cross-subsidised by enough people paying silly fares up the front.

[rutankrd]

Not sure it's every really possible to produce evidence other than searching the websites. I've just looked at United flights to Newark for the month of May, all but 4 flights are more expensive from MAN then LHR, the 4 flights that aren't are the 4 Sunday flights where flights from LHR are £27 higher. On all other days however direct flights from MAN and BHX are more expensive and at points way more expensive than direct from LHR.

In principle Skip is correct based on a basket of fares and history going back to the old IATA coded zonal system.

Regional fares for long haul were calculated to London with an add-on for a direct regional departure even if sector wise the regional services were shorter !

Now whats further interesting is the direct fares (ex tax) for the basket of fares from London and particularly fully flexible and premium rates are among the highest anywhere !

However on a number of those what could be call railroad routes such as the New York run from LHR we see way way to much capacity in the back of the bus so to speak and with the need to accommodate those fully flexible and premium holders switching rites and the demands for frequency oh and the bribes of rewards lounge access sandwich and tipples (Think i repeated this in another place in this cross forum debate !)- This Y capacity needs managing - Direct sold fares are set a market rate (A margin higher than regionals in some instances) whilst a significant portion of the capacity is dumped and sold via Agents and those Website comparison sites( Who make money via click through )

Its also a case those dumped tickets are priced such that you make own way to LHR

The thing is the xyz-LHR-JFK (or similar) pricing really is designed to favour just about anywhere other than the domestic market . xyz could be say Rome where premium fares via LHR are frequently many hundred less the offered for those of us in the UK !

Its all designed to support the Hub concept but is it fair especially to the UK customer probably not.

And does it effect to viability of regional long haul certainly.

[LAX_LHR]

I wonder if Vueling are about to launch a permanent MAN-BCN flight?

They have 2 charters for the Champions league, and all other dates other than the 2 footie dates are blacked out to show there are no flights on the website.

All dates, other than the entire month of March that is. Also, the home page keeps saying 'Manchester-Barcelona from 29.99 from March', yet no such fares or dates seem to be available to book. Maybe the website is not fully updated yet?

I wonder if Ryanair are launching MAN-BCN on a rumour that Vueling were about to do the same? Or could just be a glitch?

[darren1]

Where did the Zadar rumour come from? Would this be in addition to or replacing the LPL service?

[chinapattern]

I wonder if Vueling are about to launch a permanent MAN-BCN flight?


Would that not just be overkill with x4 carriers operating MAN-BCN? Look what happened with MAN-MAD.

[kieb92]

I could see Vueling starting BCN-MAN as I feel that BCN is still underserved from MAN as such a major city for business and holiday too. It would also be a based BCN aircraft so could potentially operate at earlier times like they have just done at Gatwick with the flight arriving from BCN at 8am and a second daily at 5pm. I could also see them expanding at MAN from other bases, Rome, Florence, Seville....

I hope they do add further flights other than the charters planned.

[LAX_LHR]

4 carriers could be a very slight overkill but Vueling have the potential* to make a better go of the flights by offering connections via the BCN hub.

*I say potential but Iberia had that potential on MAN-MAD but flopped.

The website however, my just be a glitch due to the football flights, but it was odd the way all the dates in march were highlighted?

[rutankrd]

Vueling may well be the brand within the IAG group best suited to some limited services.

As I said a few threads back they have a regional presence at Cardiff and Edinburgh already plus London and Manchester would be ideal for the centre of the country.

I think Barcelona ideal -It worked for IB for many many years and would carry an IB code for onward connections including Madrid.

There other stations (outside Spain) Amsterdam Paris and Italy could also carry some interest.

I suppose it's a wait and see situation and right now IAG renewed interests in the regions seems to be based around Edinburgh !

[MAN-OPS]

Ryanair are showing routes to

OPO, NYO and BLQ this summer

[MANFOD]

MAN-OPS, where are they showing these routes?

I can't see OPO and NYO on their web site timetable so do you mean they are slots applied for, or showing on GDS or where?

Not saying they won't operate them, but slots have a hand-back deadline date which I believe is only at the end of this month.

Bologna has been officially announced and the schedules are known.

[GavinC]

I wonder what the chances are of MAN seeing an EY 787 or 380 in 2014 as EY is scheduled to start taking delivery of these. One would hope that being 6th on the list of busiest routes would give us a chance although perhaps more likely a cascaded 777 to replace the 330 when a busier route gets the 380?

[LAX_LHR]

787 could replace the A330 but not the 777 as it would be a drop in capacity. Whilst it may be a way down the line, MAN is a future A380 station, and is as good as confirmed internally by all accounts.

[rutankrd]

I wonder what the chances are of MAN seeing an EY 787 or 380 in 2014 as EY is scheduled to start taking delivery of these. One would hope that being 6th on the list of busiest routes would give us a chance although perhaps more likely a cascaded 777 to replace the 330 when a busier route gets the 380?

Not chance anytime soon.

The afternoon flight permanently moves to a two class 77W with 412 seats in June whilst the morning flight continues to be operated with a two class 332 with 262 seats = that equates to 48 J and 626 Y per day.

I would expect the next move from Etihad to be a third flight with another 332 at some point.

The 380 not a chance.

The 789 remains about 20 months out from regular timetabling - Depending on whether they can configured with two or three class will determine if Manchester sees them at some point.

A similar question was posed elsewhere about Qatar again their 788 pose a net reduction of over 50 seats compared to current 333/332 mix.
Again their 77W in two class provides the most likely upgrade rather than the Dreamliner.

For both Qatar and Etihad the big question remains do they believe the can market a First product from Manchester -If so both have options however almost all end up reducing Y capacity !

LAX-LHR that final point bears reference to the 388 as it would introduce a First Product and anyway lets face it MAG needs to build another contact gate before another user arrives.

[TURIN]

More chance of seeing a Qatar 787 from what I hear.

Soon.

[Skipness One Echo]

I am sure MAN will see Etihad flying the A380 sooner rather than later. Etihad, does not have the same commercial remit as Emirates, who take decisions on a more conventional basis. Etihad is an old fashioned flag carrier in the orginal sense of the meaning, the sponsorship of Man City is part and parcel of a national strategy. The company is as much an arm of state policy as an airline. It's no accident and certainly not entirely commercially driven that all three of the ME3 have a *major* focus on the UK.

Or maybe they're just a normal airline? Noooooo

[rutankrd]

More chance of seeing a Qatar 787 from what I hear.

Soon.

So Turin you say Qatar not only reduce frequency but now contemplate capacity reduction as well ?

Perhaps the curse of Oneairline (World) strikes again