MANCHESTER - 9
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Air Canada Rouge pushing ahead with expansion and will add 21 aircraft to their fleet from Air Canada by the end of the year:
Air Canada rouge to establish Vancouver, Calgary bases in Spring - ch-aviation.ch
New bases at Vancouver and Calgary. Could we see any further expansion from them to rival Air Transat? Correct me if i'm wrong but is Montreal served from MAN? Potential there for a route if not served.
Also Air China had indicated long haul growth into Europe with new routes to Munich, Vienna and Barcelona (Barcelona served via Vienna). Positive signs that they are still planning expansion into Europe. Lets hope the signs are good for Manchester. Were they rumoured to be starting MAN via Zurich?
Air Canada rouge to establish Vancouver, Calgary bases in Spring - ch-aviation.ch
New bases at Vancouver and Calgary. Could we see any further expansion from them to rival Air Transat? Correct me if i'm wrong but is Montreal served from MAN? Potential there for a route if not served.
Also Air China had indicated long haul growth into Europe with new routes to Munich, Vienna and Barcelona (Barcelona served via Vienna). Positive signs that they are still planning expansion into Europe. Lets hope the signs are good for Manchester. Were they rumoured to be starting MAN via Zurich?
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FR
"Unfortunately the Saturday MAD is only June.
Normally FR are easy to work out. Not this time"
Quite right Viscount. Unless there are further changes, I can only assume it's due to shortage of a/c in the high season and having to juggle a/c to where they can be most profitable.
I see MAN-DUB now has 21 flights weekly in Aug, but jumping to 31 in September. From 3 daily flights to 5 on certain days. When there's 3 flights on a Saturday, the first two are 06.25 and 07.45 with nothing until the last one at 19.30. Very strange. If it is lack of equipment in peak months, I wonder how it will affect them commercially if seats are not available with them but are with EI?
ACE drops from 6 weekly in Aug. to 4 in September, but as you say, there are all sorts of complications.
"Unfortunately the Saturday MAD is only June.
Normally FR are easy to work out. Not this time"
Quite right Viscount. Unless there are further changes, I can only assume it's due to shortage of a/c in the high season and having to juggle a/c to where they can be most profitable.
I see MAN-DUB now has 21 flights weekly in Aug, but jumping to 31 in September. From 3 daily flights to 5 on certain days. When there's 3 flights on a Saturday, the first two are 06.25 and 07.45 with nothing until the last one at 19.30. Very strange. If it is lack of equipment in peak months, I wonder how it will affect them commercially if seats are not available with them but are with EI?
ACE drops from 6 weekly in Aug. to 4 in September, but as you say, there are all sorts of complications.
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Also Air China had indicated long haul growth into Europe with new routes to Munich, Vienna and Barcelona (Barcelona served via Vienna). Positive signs that they are still planning expansion into Europe. Lets hope the signs are good for Manchester. Were they rumoured to be starting MAN via Zurich?
So I understand Vienna a bit its a *A regional hub of sorts but Barca' lost its *A cred when Spannair folded and worse still a tag !
Combined with a Shanghai (Not a CA base !) - Munich service !
So heres thing thing hows about a PEK-MAN-DUB viz if the above is seen as viable and initially boardings seen to be weak for one stop services.
We already know Manchester alone has more than 127,000 annual boardings to mainland China and a further 140,000 to Hong Kong ( many going on to the mainland )
We have seen new service launched by Chinese carriers all over the world on similar or lower boarding numbers -Example Boston is recent months.
There really is something keeping the Chinese out of the UK and its almost certainly political in nature.
I read somewhere from an apologist that China- CAAC are primarily targeting domestic growth rather than international - Thinks that's utter rubbish myself what with evidence of new international services from one of the brands (used carefully given the 4 main carriers remain largely state owned !) almost every week.
In other news the Russian Aviation ministry and the UK are said to be working on a deal to allow a second British Carrier into Leningrad/Saint Petersburg with up to 7 weekly slot pairs - An opportunity for EasyJet one presumes.
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It does make me wonder what MAN has to do to get a service to Hong Kong/China. Its deffinately politics stopping a prospective flight. The figures support a flight working for an airline I know for a fact the yield could be there is people swap for the direct flight. Its just beggars belief.
There was a press release a few months ago where Easyjet said they already hold the rights to MAN-LED, but wouldn't start until they get the rights to Gatwick too.
In other news the Russian Aviation ministry and the UK are said to be working on a deal to allow a second British Carrier into Leningrad/Saint Petersburg with up to 7 weekly slot pairs - An opportunity for EasyJet one presumes
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It does make me wonder what MAN has to do to get a service to Hong Kong/China. Its deffinately politics stopping a prospective flight. The figures support a flight working for an airline I know for a fact the yield could be there is people swap for the direct flight. Its just beggars belief.
Understand either of Lyon/Marseille or Nice could be on the cards.
Something stinks if these get a service and Manchester remains side watered !
Another thing for general interest through LAX_LHR you probably already know
CX are playing the 80% trick at LHR through spring
- Clearly that fifth flight (that might have come to Manchester according to Spanners had the NZ slot not be made available ) has dumped far too many economy seats into that particular market !
Anywhere else and the rotation would have been canned and aircraft redeployed - Hey-oh but the black hole doesn't distort the market does it ? ( the answer is clearly two consecutive letters - anything else and you will be burned at the stake as a heretic) -(Yes copied and pasted so what)
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Its deffinately politics stopping a prospective flight. The figures support a flight working for an airline I know for a fact the yield could be there is people swap for the direct flight. Its just beggars belief.
It baffles me that Cathay aren't back with an A340-300, they've still got them and they're paid for by now. Do you mean actual politics or airline / alliance politics?
- Clearly that fifth flight (that might have come to Manchester according to Spanners had the NZ slot not be made available ) has dumped far too many economy seats into that particular market !
So to be clear, if Air China wanted to launch MAN-PEK next month, there's no real barrier to them doing so? Remember CX walked away over rights to Moscow, hardly an attractive proposition for anyone on their way to connect at HKG.
but the black hole doesn't distort the market does it ? ( the answer is clearly two consecutive letters - anything else and you will be burned at the stake as a heretic) -(Yes copied and pasted so what)
Crediting Brahmjee in another place for these boarding numbers
PEK/VIE - 70,000
PEK/BCN - 52,000
PVG/MUC - 86,000
Makes you want to scream !
PEK/VIE - 70,000
PEK/BCN - 52,000
PVG/MUC - 86,000
Makes you want to scream !
Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 17th Jan 2014 at 10:01.
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What % of the ME3 are ongoing to Hong Kong vs BA/CX over LHR?
It baffles me that Cathay aren't back with an A340-300, they've still got them and they're paid for by now. Do you mean actual politics or airline / alliance politics?
It baffles me that Cathay aren't back with an A340-300, they've still got them and they're paid for by now. Do you mean actual politics or airline / alliance politics?
Im convinced that something is at play, as I cannot fathom why such smaller markets seem to be easily gaining China flights but MAN struggles. Even Dublin was hotly tipped to get a direct Air China flight, a market no bigger than 1/5 the size of MAN at this present time!
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Do you mean actual politics
UK PLC are not greasing the correct palms -and whilst some ViSA conditions have recently been relaxed - We are just not friendly enough for the Chinese nouveau riche, that are flocking to Paris the ski resorts south of Geneva and those rather ornate opera houses of Milan.
Oh and clearly the charm of Barcelona come spring -All on a single an easily obtainable Schengen VISA.
What more they apparently spend rather willingly and then they go home
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Skipness.
1) Not disputing LHR being a significant profit centre for CX and indeed using the 80% trick emphasises their desire to maintain that by removing excess Y capacity via applying pre-planned non-ops across their timetable (Achievable with a sufficiently large daily slot holding)- Yet retaining a valuable asset
2) Also not disputed that Swire (and possibly Air China in the back ground) are hardly buddies with the Watership down crew.
3) I am not sure if they have a lease or have actually acquired the slot rights from NZ - this would make a difference in the event NZ wanted them back wouldn't it ?
Likely yes but still its distorted.
Munich will go two daily 388 EK from spring Etihad use the three class 333 twice daily Qatar twice daily 788 AND they have that fourth carrier from the region Oman 3 weekly.
Barcelona has Qatar and Emirates with Royal Jordanian however not yet Etihad
And Vienna well they have a national airline going East already !
1) Not disputing LHR being a significant profit centre for CX and indeed using the 80% trick emphasises their desire to maintain that by removing excess Y capacity via applying pre-planned non-ops across their timetable (Achievable with a sufficiently large daily slot holding)- Yet retaining a valuable asset
2) Also not disputed that Swire (and possibly Air China in the back ground) are hardly buddies with the Watership down crew.
3) I am not sure if they have a lease or have actually acquired the slot rights from NZ - this would make a difference in the event NZ wanted them back wouldn't it ?
The demographics and population density are reflected in the market behaviour, you are mixing up cause with effect.
assume they each have seven ME3 flights each say, two with A380s to fill? They have a direct service as the don't have non-commercially driven capacity dumping to the same extent. (QR and EY)
Barcelona has Qatar and Emirates with Royal Jordanian however not yet Etihad
And Vienna well they have a national airline going East already !
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Yes good point, and again can I say I do genuinely appreciate the level of debate here. I do wonder how much of that potential pot of MAN-China is already tied up via existing loyalty and reward schemes with Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.
I think with the commercial (and political,remember Qatar and Etihad are projections of national power and prestige, Emirates too but more balanced and commercial IMHO) focus on the UK, the ME3 have captured market share over their hubs at the expense of direct services, like Cathay.
Also get's odd when you remember Air China and Cathay are in different alliances !
There's some serious market fragmentation now at MAN going East.
I agree the absence of a single European visa like Schengen is a killer, however I think that penny has dropped. The Tories, however much some may disagree do start to pay attention where real money is concerned.
I think with the commercial (and political,remember Qatar and Etihad are projections of national power and prestige, Emirates too but more balanced and commercial IMHO) focus on the UK, the ME3 have captured market share over their hubs at the expense of direct services, like Cathay.
Also get's odd when you remember Air China and Cathay are in different alliances !
There's some serious market fragmentation now at MAN going East.
I agree the absence of a single European visa like Schengen is a killer, however I think that penny has dropped. The Tories, however much some may disagree do start to pay attention where real money is concerned.
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Also get's odd when you remember Air China and Cathay are in different alliances
The competition is an illusion in my honest opinion and China is rather good at such things !
I agree the absence of a single European visa like Schengen is a killer, however I think that penny has dropped. The Tories, however much some may disagree do start to pay attention where real money is concerned.
Its not turning people away particularly those that want to simply visit these great isles or even earn pay taxes and spend !
New bases at Vancouver and Calgary. Could we see any further expansion from them to rival Air Transat? Correct me if i'm wrong but is Montreal served from MAN? Potential there for a route if not served
So it's a surprise that AC Rouge have chosen to enter MAN - Toronto in competition with a daily Air Transat service. The Rouge is only for 11 weeks, and only 5 trimes a week. If you use any agent like e-bookers, expedia etc you are most unlikely to be offered a Rouge flight. Booking direct offers fares on par with AC mainline from LHR- so not a "low cost" fare. Although of course a " low cost" airline is not necessarily a "low fare" airline.
Air Canada Rouge expect to have a minimum of 6 B767-300ERs in operation by summer 2014. New B777s & B787s delivered to AC in Spring 2014 will allow more B767s to be moved to Rouge.
To me a Montreal service, which also has good onward connections would have made more sense-especially as a summer seasonal route.
However the MAN-YYZ route is barely advertised & so difficult to book, I'd suggest it might be a pretty flakey operation, but I hope to be proved wrong on that one.
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"While I haven't got the figures to hand, there were studies done which showed on average, 12-16 J class seats and 164 Y class seats on average per day each way could be filled on MAN-HKG alone, and about 11-13 J and 126 Y per day each way for Beijing. Shanghai was not studied in depth. This was accounting for the fact there are many other routing opportunities via various hubs"
LAX LHR, Are the numbers you mention for Hong Kong & Beijing just relating to LHR, or just BA connecting pax at LHR? I take it from your comment that they don't include MAN pax using other hubs or have I got that wrong?
To a point Skipness raised, it would indeed be interesting to know on average how many pax from MAN use one of the MEB3 carriers to connect to HK (do all 3 fly there?), to assess what the impact might be if CX were to restart a MAN service.
LAX LHR, Are the numbers you mention for Hong Kong & Beijing just relating to LHR, or just BA connecting pax at LHR? I take it from your comment that they don't include MAN pax using other hubs or have I got that wrong?
To a point Skipness raised, it would indeed be interesting to know on average how many pax from MAN use one of the MEB3 carriers to connect to HK (do all 3 fly there?), to assess what the impact might be if CX were to restart a MAN service.
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I'm loathe to quote sources but I'm sure HK was in top 3 of MEBs Ex MAN !
I have mentioned before that CAPA indicated that the Chinese are highly suspicious of opening up routes where BA, AF/KL and LH could muscle in, is this a factor ?
Look at the rumoured destinations the Chinese are looking at, they hardly jump out ?
Maybe that explains Barca, Vienna, Dublin and Munich where competition from national carriers might be less ?
On these routes it puts them up against EI, Austrian and Iberia not exactly heavy hitters !
Presumably they would allow reciprocal rights re Munich with LH BUT it is not the primary gateway so is possibly viewed as less of a threat as Frankfurt ?
On a general note if we had a degree of federalism in the UK we might see a fairer playing field with regards this subject but with our rabble, not a chance. Generally speaking there is no interest in Manchester OR the airport from either side until election time and then come fawning around a gullible NWest public.. within 24 hours, gone again for another 4 years !
In my view a degree of "Mancunianism" would help Manchester Airport no end !
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I emailed Air Rouge and indeed MAG indicating that the Toronto flights Ex MAN were totally impossible to find.
To be fair to AC emailed back within 30 minutes and said they would get there Customer service dept to investigate ASAP.
No such urgency from MAG their response was non existent.
I did notice a twitter feed offering a Toronto holiday which I think was thru AC !
I have mentioned before that CAPA indicated that the Chinese are highly suspicious of opening up routes where BA, AF/KL and LH could muscle in, is this a factor ?
Look at the rumoured destinations the Chinese are looking at, they hardly jump out ?
Maybe that explains Barca, Vienna, Dublin and Munich where competition from national carriers might be less ?
On these routes it puts them up against EI, Austrian and Iberia not exactly heavy hitters !
Presumably they would allow reciprocal rights re Munich with LH BUT it is not the primary gateway so is possibly viewed as less of a threat as Frankfurt ?
On a general note if we had a degree of federalism in the UK we might see a fairer playing field with regards this subject but with our rabble, not a chance. Generally speaking there is no interest in Manchester OR the airport from either side until election time and then come fawning around a gullible NWest public.. within 24 hours, gone again for another 4 years !
In my view a degree of "Mancunianism" would help Manchester Airport no end !
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I emailed Air Rouge and indeed MAG indicating that the Toronto flights Ex MAN were totally impossible to find.
To be fair to AC emailed back within 30 minutes and said they would get there Customer service dept to investigate ASAP.
No such urgency from MAG their response was non existent.
I did notice a twitter feed offering a Toronto holiday which I think was thru AC !