MANCHESTER - 9

[Skipness One Echo]

This is what distorts the Manchester market. Despite really good loads on the majority of longhaul ex MAN it's an uphill battle.

I'm calling misleading on that. The days when LHR was holding back MAN are over, there's squat diddly holding back MAN long haul from making a go if it, see the recent discussion on bi-laterals that's once we got into some detail showed the often talked about problems were overstated.
Thai are full of c***, they have car-crash fleet planning, parked expensive A345s they're still paying for, A380s for some reason and much like Malaysian, seem to lose money flying twice daily to LHR. Market share isn't the problem stopping them launching MAN-BKK, it's Emirates and loyal and savvy clientele. Booking MAN-YYZ on Rouge is not LHR's fault, it's Air Canada's split personality, like QANTAS/ Jetstar, these loco spin offs are hard to make work, especially when lead in fares from MAN with Rouge are more expensive than Air Canada mainline over LHR. Go figure!

So, the reason they want you to shuttle to LHR is not because, they couldn't make money from Manchester -but they need you to support their often "struggling" LHR operation.

Who's the target here? BA? AC? Struggling LHR? Oh for the love of....

So in all seriousness, what's your practical solution here? Outlaw AC connection pax over MAN-LHR-Canada or insist VS open up MAN-JFK as their own LHR operation is struggling? Odd how some non-LHR fixated airline hasn't moved into address this surely? Unless it's not actually an opportunity at all.
For most commercial minded airlines, there's no point in hanging onto LHR slots if you can't make money there. If they could make more money flying out of MAN, they'd sell up LHR and move North, not everyone is clinging onto them for prestige like the old school African and Far East carriers used to.

[kieb92]

Been looking at TCX:

Looks to be a lot of reductions in flights for next summer. They also seem to be realigning times to fit with Condor as a lot of flights depart at 5am! Does anybody know the based aircraft for Summer 2014?

flythomascook | Search Flights

[viscount702]

Thought Thomas Cook were building a long haul hub at MAN being fed by Fly Be.

So expected an increase in long haul .Were their press releases just spin then or are they still planning extra routes/capacity. ?

Nigel

As I mentioned in an earlier post it is difficult to see what TCX are up to.

TAB was supposed to be a DE route but LAX_LHR posted that he could see it run on TCX metal which now appears to be the case.

Yes they were to increase long haul with feed from BE. It doesn't seem to have panned out in the way put out in the press releases at least not so far. There is feed from BE but not as extensive as we all thought.
I would like to think otherwise but I think there has been a rethink and the proposals to follow the DE model as was the idea seems to have stalled in my view at least for the time being.

LAX_LHR may have more info.

[Mr A Tis]

Well Skippy, I think you need a good dose of Cammomile tea.
I'm not advocating any "solution", merely putting a point of view.
A point of view I can only speak from my own personal experiences.
I've flown on enough B744s & B777s out of LHR two thirds empty & also flown many times in "J" from MAN at a substantially higher price than flying from LHR.
I'm not talking about a "struggling" LHR but some airlines "struggling" to fill their multiple schedules.
I don't have any answers, merely an opinion that the current slot system distorts the market.
I'm more than happy for you to hold a different view.

[LAX_LHR]

LAX_LHR may have more info.

I am unsure of what exactly is happening with the whole TCX/DE 'merger' thing.

There are some cases where clear forward strides are being made, such as the codeshare arrangement, the BE 'hub' connections, a few long haul routes and lastly the basing of a Condor B757 at MAN this summer.

Then there are the signs that all is not so straight forward, such as looking for a route FTP to link long haul points such as DUB-CUN, the fact that despite them saying MAN will be the future 'hub going west', they are still launching routes such as FRA-MSP (Im not saying MAN-MSP would be more viable but if they are still opening these routes then what role is MAN supposed to take exactly).

Its just not a simple situation at all.

[Ringwayman]

2013 passenger number:

Overall terminal: 20,697,626 = up 5.22%
including transit 20,843,977 = up 5.05%

Freight = 97,243 tonnes = down 1.23%

[Skipness One Echo]

I've flown on enough B744s & B777s out of LHR two thirds empty & also flown many times in "J" from MAN at a substantially higher price than flying from LHR.
I'm not talking about a "struggling" LHR but some airlines "struggling" to fill their multiple schedules.

Any routing MAN-xyz is meant to me more expensive than MAN-LHR-xyz, that's the crazy world of airline revenue management. It's not a LHR/MAN thing more a global spoke to hub behaviour. I may be assuming wrongly here, that you mean BA-US when you say multiple schedules, the only thing I would say is that's the market the real money is on for them, so it seems to even out.

[BHX5DME]

Manchester Pax

Good figures but still behind 2004 when 21,249,841 pax were handled.

Still better than Lyon !

[FRatSTN]

Ryanair to start Manchester - Barcelona El Prat

Initially was just two special Champions League flights for Barcelona V Man City on 12th and 13th March, but Ryanair will start a new route to Barcelona El Prat operating daily from Sunday 30th March 2014.

Schedule:
FR7542, dep. Manchester 06:55, arr. Barcelona 10:20, Daily
FR7543, dep. Barcelona 10:55, arr. Manchester 12:20, Daily

Girona and Reus still remain, both at 3x weekly.

[MKY661]

I still remember the days when Monarch were the only ones to do Barcelona It looks like it has become more popular

[LAX_LHR]

Do we know when the route will be made bookable FRatSTN?

Also, these timings indicate a 7th based aircraft unless a lot of re-jigging takes place, if it is aircraft 7 it could also mean the rumoured Zadar and Oporto are still possible.

[Mr A Tis]

MKY661, I remember when Iberia were the only operator to El Prat. It was always full, inc business. That was on the DC9, then MD80 then A320. However IB is one of those airlines that can't make money even with a full aircraft.
Monarch has been great, but the recent winter cutbacks have made it less business friendly. The summer prices have shot up to being about 30% more expensive than flying with Lufthansa or KLM on many occassions.
It's a shame the Ryanair is going to be also a morning flight. An evening rotation would allow more flexibilityon travel to/from BCN.
Should give ZB a run for their money though.

[viscount702]

FR

Earlier timetable releases put GRO up from 7 per week last last to 10 this year.
If as reported GRO goes to 3 per week then there won't be a net increase in flights but a switch of 7 GRO to BCN. Nonetheless nothing is that simple as not all GRO were on based aircraft and in fact 6 of the proposed 10 were on non based.

Despite what may or may not be showing in some GDS systems KTW and the increase in DUB flights are not showing on FR web timetable and we still don't know about TUF are Zadar.

Therefore it still seems a case of watch this space but nothing at present definitely indicates more than 6 based aircraft

[nigel osborne]

Viscount702.

Perhaps the bottom line is then that if Thomas Cook are not increasing their long haul fleet they cannot increase MAN without cutting back on LGW or Germany ?

Nigel

[TURIN]

Any routing MAN-xyz is meant to me more expensive than MAN-LHR-xyz, that's the crazy world of airline revenue management. It's not a LHR/MAN thing more a global spoke to hub behaviour.

What do you mean by that Skip? I genuinely do not understand why it's "meant to" be more expensive.

I can see why the operating costs 'may' be more expensive than at a main base. crew accomadation etc. But 'meant'?

[Skipness One Echo]

In long haul, you pay a premium for a non stop service.
There are many savvy people who fly LHR-Europe.
Get off plane. Re-board same plane.
Fly Europe-LHR-Long haul.
Repeat on return, you can save hundreds on the London fare if you book long haul from AMS/BRU/CDG, even factoring in a LHR-Europe return fare. Two tickets so bags need to be collected and re-checked.
Many of those juicy long haul deals from the regions via KLM are at fare levels the native Dutch will never see.....

One of the most comparably expensive places Emirates fly to is.....Dubai.LHR-DXB-DOH for example is usually cheaper than LHR-DXB.

[MANFOD]

Ryanair
"Therefore it still seems a case of watch this space but nothing at present definitely indicates more than 6 based aircraft"

I'm reluctantly beginning to think you may be right Viscount and we will finish up with just 6, the same as last summer. Still, watch this space as you say.

[750XL]

If we are to go above 6 aircraft, where are they all going to park

[Bagso]

The Flybe / Thomas Cook link up is a total conundrum.

As stated previously if you go on the Condor web site all the links are in place to hub thru Manchester, they just don't exist on the Thomas Cook web site.

I noticed that Tranaero are launching a number of flights to various European destinations, i'm just curious how can they codeshare out of Gatwick but not Manchester?

[getonittt]

If they could make more money flying out of MAN, they'd sell up LHR and move North, not everyone is clinging onto them for prestige like the old school African and Far East carriers used to.

Thats the thing though isn't it. A route out of the regions HAS to pay , it is scrutinzed and picked over, how much Business class, how much cargo how many wearing pink jumpers blah blah blah , and yet i commented on the LHR thread that the new Philippine airlines service to manila carried an avarage load of just 70 people during the month of november and this is a 5 times weekly 777-300. That is just one i looked at i'm sure there are lots more. I know PAL are not in an alliance but as most know other airlines will fly half empty out of LHR to just to fulfil the HUB commitment. To create a ' mini hub' at MAN would not be the answer, you would just create the same problem . More point to point would work , no doubt, BUT the alliances want you to fly from LHR to try and fill all the over capacity there. I think that is what skipness was implying when he said MAN-xyz meant to be more expensive than MAN-LHR-xyz.