MANCHESTER - 9

[NorthCountryBoy76]

They've never flown Bodrum from MAN, that was a LPL route

[roverman]

Passenger Traffic booms

MAN is booming. Just like the city's massive recent population growth, and perhaps related, the airport posted a rise of almost 9% in passengers for November against last year. The rolling annual total is now 19.6M. Significantly, both domestic and charter traffic were up, as well as scheduled international. And so even sectors which have traditionally been in decline have bounced back. It's only one month's figures but overall growth at MAN is now firmly established, with 20 million ppa likely by early next year. Aircraft movements are flat, and cargo remains in decline, falling below 100k tonnes for the first time in years.

http://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/manweb.nsf/alldocs/460F505CACD7576780257ACA0052B112/$File/November+12.pdf

[Dct_Mopas]

Originally Posted by NorthCountryBoy76

They've never flown Bodrum from MAN, that was a LPL route

That one is still a LPL route in the summer, but as NCB says has never been one at MAN.

[North West]

MAN is booming. Just like the city's massive recent population growth, and
perhaps related, the airport posted a rise of almost 9% in passengers for
November against last year. The rolling annual total is now 19.6M.
Significantly, both domestic and charter traffic were up, as well as scheduled
international. And so even sectors which have traditionally been in decline have
bounced back. It's only one month's figures but overall growth at MAN is now
firmly established, with 20 million ppa likely by early next year. Aircraft
movements are flat, and cargo remains in decline, falling below 100k tonnes for
the first time in years.

Very unlikely to be anything related to city population. It is still the case that only 25% of passengers are from Greater Manchester, so an even smaller proportion from the city itself. Unless the population change is a significant net inflow into the wider catchment area, its hard to see how it would move the needle. A more rationale assessment would be to look at net passenger growth across the airports in the North West and trade off declines at other airports vs growth at MAN. In the context of a difficult economic climate, it will be interesting to see what the overall net growth is in the North West vs the UK average and other regions.

[TSR2]

A more rationale assessment would be to look at net passenger growth across the airports in the North West and trade off declines at other airports vs growth at MAN.

Rolling Year to October 2012

Manchester +4.4% (+2.6% ATM)

Liverpool -13.3% (-19.8% ATM)

Blackpool -1.3% (+6.7% ATM)

Leeds Bradford +0.6% (-7.8% ATM)

East Midlands -2.6% (+1.8% ATM)

UK Average +0.8% (-0.7% ATM)

Make what you wish of these figures.

[mybrico]

Context

Maybe best to put the MAN pax figures in context, remember they are coming from a high 22.4m in 2006 and this years figures will be little better than 2003.
To judge how well MAN is doing we could ask how much has UK passenger traffic grown since 2003 - the answer is i think from 180m in 2003 to 235m in 2011 - so MAN has lost market share. To have the same share as 2003 the 2011 figure would need to be circa 24m. To get the same share as 2006 it would need to be circa 28m. A good performance but some way to go, best to be realistic. I think my maths are right but stand to be corrected

[LN-KGL]

I will give you an A mybrico. The year end lowpoint of 2010 was 78.7% of the 2006 numbers and since that time MAN has recovered 9 percentage points and is right now at 87.7% of 2006. With this speed of recovery we may well wait 'til 2015 to see 2006 numbers again at MAN. There is one upside for MAN though, it looks like MAN will overtake Stockholm Arlanda on this year's list of European airports (ARN has shown below 1% growth the last three months).

[roverman]

We all know there's a way to go yet to reach the levels of 2006. My boom comment was rather to note that MAN is enjoying a period of sustained Passenger traffic growth and is one of the few UK airports to be in this position. Well above the national average, as the table in a previous post shows. Of course local population will not be the main driver, but the city was the fastest growing major UK city in the first decade of this century, 19% according to the 2011 Census. The conurbation of Greater Manchester saw population growth too. All this after a long period of decline in the last century. It will be one factor.

[BHX5DME]

Manchester's market share of Total UK Pax

The only true statistic is MAN % of total UK Pax, and you will see from below 2011 is the same as 1981 !

Best year 1994

8.42% 1981
8.75% 1982
8.52% 1983
8.92% 1984
8.76% 1985
10.14% 1986
10.16% 1987
10.48% 1988
10.55% 1989
10.23% 1990
10.93% 1991
11.36% 1992
11.67% 1993
11.93% 1994
11.40% 1995
10.79% 1996
10.87% 1997
10.92% 1998
10.44% 1999
10.32% 2000
10.65% 2001
9.96% 2002
9.85% 2003
9.81% 2004
9.77% 2005
9.50% 2006
9.15% 2007
8.99% 2008
8.56% 2009
8.31% 2010
8.49% 2011

[mybrico]

Yes BHX5DME, thanks for that interesting work, market share is an accurate measure of real performance and it looks like long term structural decline, at least the decline seems to have been arrested. The 1994 share would 34m today

[chaps2011]

2012 figures should be interesting as they should show quite a swing to MAN
as virtually each month has been above average growth

Chaps

[DomyDom]

Chaps, I agree. I also think that the recent growth has to be seen in the context of the what is happening in the rest of the UK. The market conditions are signficantly different to e.g. the 80s and mid 90s with the overall growth nationally in passenger numbers, a wider choice of airports for PAX and the LCCs. 2012 figures should be encouraging, MAN is definately on the up and has the capacity to and I think will do even better. DomyDom

[Betablockeruk]

BHX5DME,

Can you do the freight yr on yr comparison?

[BHX5DME]

Freight at UK Airports

You will find total freight here, you just need to work out MAN's as a %

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...K_Airports.pdf

[johnnychips]

The only [my bold] true statistic is MAN % of total UK Pax, and you will see from below 2011 is the same as 1981 !

That really is a sweeping statement. There are a lot more airports around now who have increased their capacity , so obviously MAN's share as a percentage will decrease. The 'true' statistic will be MAN's profitability.

Can't we stop all this willy-waving on PPrune? It used to be MAN-LPL, but now it seems to be MAN-BHX as well.

[Ringwayman]

Moscow is now bookable on the easyJet website if you route in through the "where we fly" section. Fares £40 to £50 one-way but it looks like people have been booking in reasonable numbers as some dates already show fares above £100.

I was surprised to see that their LGW-DME service isn't loaded.

[easyflyer83]

Someone's been on skyscrapercity

[johnnychips]

Swiss/Helvetica

Sorry if this has been on here before, but has anyone noticed that some MAN-ZRH flights this summer will be operated by Helvetica using F100s. Not bookable on Helvetica's website. Last summer both Swiss jets, I think 319s, were full when I travelled.

- any idea why, or more details of dates
- does Helvetica have business class, as I'm thinking of connecting to BCN in ZRH?

Thanks in anticipation.

[insuindi]

Helvetic operates on a number of LX routes, with wet-lease F100, e.g. out of BHX.

Business class exists, and it's the normal LX cabin service.

[j636]

DL operating A332 to ATL from 30 March.