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Old 20th Oct 2012, 12:33
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airblue will launch 4 weekly flights to Islamabad with ex-Turkish A343 (all Economy) from 27th November
airblue to Launch A340 Islamabad – Manchester Nonstop Service from late-Nov 2012 | Airline Route – Worldwide Airline Route Updates
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Old 20th Oct 2012, 14:33
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mickyman:
Do you have comparisons with all Emirates stations in the UK that you could share ?
Perhaps a graph showing the numbers on all flights in the UK
from the various airports for the last 17or12 month period? followed by the available seats per station?
I only use open sources for this Dubai - UK comparison. It may be possible to find the individuals that have flown the routes, but I don't have access to what each individual has of seat numbers. To know the load factor for the flight on the route don't tell anything about the yield or RASK. Load factor, yield and RASK is the carriers business secret - and I think we have to let it stay so.

Then we are left with only passenger numbers given in the monthly traffic reports from CAA. Of the six UK airports with scheduled flights to Dubai, five of them have only one operator, Emirates. The sixth airport, Heathrow, has five operators on the route, but only four of them do sell tickets: British Airways, Emirates, Royal Brunei Airlines and Virgin Atlantic Airways.

Below you will find a graph showing the market share of the six airport based on rolling year numbers. Since there is such a large difference between Heathrow and the rest, I've removed most of the area between 20% and 40% so that you get a better view of the five others. The red curve that is different than all the rest is showing us the year rolling passenger numbers between Dubai and UK, and the axis to the right gives the units.



Much can be said about these curves, but let's start with the changes in the passenger numbers (red curve). It is easy to spot that something happened at the start of S12 (end of March 2012). What was a steady growth stopped, and the mangnitude of the drop the next two months in passenger numbers was equal to the Icelandic ash drop in April 2010. At the end of September there is still 7,348 passengers missing to get to the March level of 4,143,599 passengers per year. Since the first three months of 2012 and the three last in 2011 was so good, the 12 months growth was still +2.5%.

Now let's start up North with the airports:

Glasgow is enjoying an all time high both for market share and passenger numbers. 295,833 passengers flew between DXB and GLA the last 12 months (+8.6%) and that was 7.2% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year GLA has got 20,817 new passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then GLA grew 19.0% (qual to 14,199 passengers).

Newcastle had its passenger all time high in July last summer and the top market share came in March the same year. 161,082 passengers flew between DXB and NCL the last 12 months (+1.9%) and that was 3.9% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year NCL has lost 2,089 passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then NCL grew 1.1% (qual to 479 passengers).

Manchester has seen the last hslf year two months with decline in passenger number, and both market share and year rolling passenger numbers peaked in April this year. 669,316 passengers (1,018 passengers lower than the peak) flew between DXB and MAN the last 12 months (+7.2%) and that was 16.2% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year MAN has got 31,450 new passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then MAN grew 2.6% (qual to 4,672 passengers).

Birmingham has seen a steady decline in passenger numbers and market share since they peaked in April 2011. 474,597 passengers (37,209 passengers lower than the peak) flew between DXB and BHX the last 12 months (-6.2%) and that was 11.5% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year BHX has lost 25,375 passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then BHX declined 7.9% (qual to -10,368 passengers).

Heathrow is enjoying all time high for both for year rolling passenger numbers and market share this September. 1,920,569 passengers flew between DXB and LHR the last 12 months (+3.2%) and that was 46.4% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year LHR has gained 31,076 more passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then LHR grew 2.5% (qual to 12,643 passengers).

Gatwick is experiencing a more an less steady decline in market share since June 2010, but with that small decline Gatwick continued to grow in passenger number until the same time as the total UK numbers peaked in March. 614,853 passengers flew between DXB and LGW the last 12 months (+1.2%) and that was 14.9% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year LGW has lost 2,247 passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then LGW declined 6.5% (qual to -11,374 passengers).


My conclusions is as follows:
  1. LHR and GLA are both experiencing all time highs at the end of September
  2. MAN had the biggest growth in passenger numbers the nine first months this year
  3. GLA had the biggest percentage growth the last 12 months as well as the biggest passenger growth in both percentage and passenger numbers in the 3rd quarter
  4. No doubt, Birmingham was the big looser with largest decline in passenger this year, largest decline the last 12 months and largest percentage decline in 3rd quarter.
  5. Gatwick had the largest decline in passenger numbers 3rd quarter
The graph above spans almost two years and during this time we can clearly see MAN overtaking LGW to take over the second place. The last months results shows that this second spot to MAN is more and more secure.

If you follows @routesnews, two days ago three tweets appeared with links to the above and they said:

Routes News 18.10.2012 11:07
Early days of Manchester-Dubai were 'verry tough' but set a new trend in long haul says Laurie Berryman VP UK Emirates at #investandmanage
Routes News 18.10.2012 11:12
Glasgow-Dubai was Emirates fastest growing route. Scots hate connecting through London says Laurie Berryman VP UK Emirates at #investandmanage
Routes News 18.10.2012 11:19
APD is hitting sales in the UK regions and people drive from NI to Dublin to escape it says Laurie Berryman VP UK Emirates at #investandmanage
Looks like Emirates and I say the same about Glasgow. With the regards to the last tweet; What does the APD do to MAN? In the 3rd quarter there are two very large European hub airports that showed a significant growth (+10.5% and +16.2%) and both airports are served of other airlines than the residing hub airline.

The last six months I've been three times to AMS and all the times I've seen British citizens with easyJet tags on their bags queuing up at KLM check ins. Is this the new way to minimize the size of the APD? Buying separate tickets with easyJet to AMS (2x£13) and continue flying APD free to the rest of the world?

Last edited by LN-KGL; 20th Oct 2012 at 14:49.
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Old 20th Oct 2012, 14:36
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Market share, to Dubai? What % are bound for DXB? Marketshare is relevant on origin to destination in this case given Emirates are a hub carrier.
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Old 20th Oct 2012, 15:17
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Dubai Interntional Airport doesn't anything about the transfer share in their monthly press releases. Here is a link to the August traffic press release:
Press releases

But I guess the transfer share for the Emirates flights are pretty high - above 80%?
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Old 20th Oct 2012, 16:33
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LN-KGL

Firstly....thanks for the info you have provided about the
Emirates operations in the U.K.It must have taken some
assembling and collating so I want you to know that it
IS appreciated.
I have found one glimmer of solace for the Manchesterfiles
here and there that question your negative leaning on reports for
MAN.

Manchester had 0.1% better growth in passengers numbers than
Heathrow in the first 9 months of the year!

I'm not suprised the Scots have taken to Emirates in the way
you describe.I also see why people avoid the APD by flying
via a european hub and perhaps this will be seen more and
more in the future and reflect especially in the regional
airports performance.

Thanks again,

MM
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Old 20th Oct 2012, 19:56
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For those of you that want to know more good news - here is the top 20 gainer list for the 3rd quarter in 2012.



14 of the 20 countries on the list are Euopean. Italy and Spain had a close race the first two months, but in September Spain ended up only on 12th place and lost rather clearly to Italy. Germany came in on a very clear 3rd place. The race for the three next places was very close, but Norway ended up on 4th place due to its consistent growth.
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Old 21st Oct 2012, 10:25
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Airbus beluga

Just seen an airbus beluga land at Manchester. Anyone know why? I was just having a look at flightradar24 app, and saw it on approach. The route seemed to suggest it was going to Broughton, but then came to Manchester.
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Old 21st Oct 2012, 11:03
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Fog at Hawarden

Chaps
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Old 21st Oct 2012, 11:04
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WX. Fog @ Hawarden
EGNR 211050Z 15005KT 120V190 0650 FG OVC000 08/08 Q1021
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Old 21st Oct 2012, 13:43
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Airbus beluga

Any idea What time it left at? I've tried to keep a watch over flightradar24 but haven't seen it depart yet.
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Old 21st Oct 2012, 13:54
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It has been reported on one of the Yahoo Groups that the Beluga will now overnight at Manchester Airport.
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Old 27th Oct 2012, 13:01
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Norwegian will start 2 weekly flights to Stavanger from 1st April.
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Old 27th Oct 2012, 13:28
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Stavanger flights

These will be welcomed by the Man United Superstore at Old Trafford.
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 12:52
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Gatwick flights to finish next March

News / BA to axe daily Gatwick flights THEBUSINESSDESK.COM
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 12:58
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Of course they are, as soon as the timings became rubbish, that was apparent. Passengers fall, losses rise, closure beckons. Annoyed though as I used it a lot, quite cheap too which was probably a clue.

I wonder if GLA and EDI will be next?

Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 30th Oct 2012 at 13:00.
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 13:08
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Gatwick

Could that open the door for easyJet?
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 13:30
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Probably! Or Flybe as a longer shot (Probably only likely on a E195 though).
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 14:18
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Re: BA axes LGW/MAN

I hope U2 or BE do make a connection available as so many people used the BA service to connect in Gatwick with the Caribbean flights or BA and VS, not just as a point to point service.
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 22:16
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MAN-LGW

It did seem like this route was dying recently and so perhaps not surprising it is dropped. It does leave BA without feed to the long haul leisure routes ex LGW, and (from my experience) a loss to the considerable number of air crews who currently use it to dead-head between two major charter bases. That may be part of the problem - these folk don't account for much revenue.
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 22:20
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Non-rev fares to/from LON are now substantially more then the lowest fare confirmed tickets. The only benefit is the flexibility however it still deems them very unattractive.

Last edited by CabinCrew747; 30th Oct 2012 at 22:21.
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