NEWQUAY
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Skipnesss if you want to be a good market analyst you had better visit Cornwall more often and take a drive around if you truly believe it is just second homes and tourism. In the last few years the growth of business down here has been exceptional, examples happily supplied!
I do agree with the rest of your post though. Sub 50 seats or forget it.
I do agree with the rest of your post though. Sub 50 seats or forget it.
Join Date: Dec 2011
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LHR-NQY
Would love to see LHR-NQY, would be on it frequently now that the fun's gone out of driving (price of petrol, congestion, speed traps, etc.) which is tragic bearing in mind the improvements on the A30/A303 over the years!
It's also the best London airport for NQY because of connectivity with longhaul flights, which helps with make "thin" routes viable.
However,
(1) it won't happen unless and until LHR is expanded, making slots easily available and the slot market is ended;
(2) there would have to be some arrangements for lower airport charges;
(3) domestic APD would need to scrapped or go back to Ken Clarke levels (he introduced APD in the 90s);
(4) as a "thin" route, LHR-NQY (and similar) would need smaller aircraft of the type that BA don't have and some frequency, so would not expect BA on the route, that said, interlining arrangements/code sharing with BA/VS could be possible;
If LHR does expand and gets a new longhaul routes, additional "thinner" domestic/near abroad routes will be required to feed these, supplying the connecting pax.
It's also the best London airport for NQY because of connectivity with longhaul flights, which helps with make "thin" routes viable.
However,
(1) it won't happen unless and until LHR is expanded, making slots easily available and the slot market is ended;
(2) there would have to be some arrangements for lower airport charges;
(3) domestic APD would need to scrapped or go back to Ken Clarke levels (he introduced APD in the 90s);
(4) as a "thin" route, LHR-NQY (and similar) would need smaller aircraft of the type that BA don't have and some frequency, so would not expect BA on the route, that said, interlining arrangements/code sharing with BA/VS could be possible;
If LHR does expand and gets a new longhaul routes, additional "thinner" domestic/near abroad routes will be required to feed these, supplying the connecting pax.
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Simon,
With all due respect if BE can't make a Q400 operation work they how on god's earth is any operator going to make a twice daily A319 operation work?
Going back in time, BMA then Brymon operated, twice daily, a Y50 HPR7 of which I recall load factors in the region of 67%.
Thereafter Brymon, then BA, then ASW combined Y50 operations with PLH effectly reducing NQY to Y25 operations but increased the frequency of services to three or more per day, if three then Y75, if four then Y100 per day ... nowhere even close to filling even a once a day A319.
And the reason behind increasing frequency of services is because not everybody wants to be setting their alarm clock for stupid o'clock to catch the 0700 departure nor does everybody want to be kicking their heels waiting until a 1700 departure when they could get up at a reasonable hour and be in London or wherever, by other means of transport, earlier than the 1700 departure would get them there.
What's needed is fewer seats but more often per day, something like a Do328 or SF340 morning and evening before increasing frequencies to three or four rotations daily, operate at the times the customers want to travel and to hell with your big shiny jets!
Skipness,
It's not about changing ... Back in the day there were up to 4 or 5 slots per day from PLH and NQY to/from LHR, departures from PLH/NQY around 0700 and 1700 and then a middle of the day service.
But then the World's favourite airline came along, and as they did with the Isle of Man, they effectively robbed Devon and Cornwall of their LHR slots for the purpose of lining their own shareholders pockets and now it is proposed that the British taxpayer fork out as a result.
P.S. And I don't need a market analyst to tell me when something stinks, I can smell it for myself.
With all due respect if BE can't make a Q400 operation work they how on god's earth is any operator going to make a twice daily A319 operation work?
Going back in time, BMA then Brymon operated, twice daily, a Y50 HPR7 of which I recall load factors in the region of 67%.
Thereafter Brymon, then BA, then ASW combined Y50 operations with PLH effectly reducing NQY to Y25 operations but increased the frequency of services to three or more per day, if three then Y75, if four then Y100 per day ... nowhere even close to filling even a once a day A319.
And the reason behind increasing frequency of services is because not everybody wants to be setting their alarm clock for stupid o'clock to catch the 0700 departure nor does everybody want to be kicking their heels waiting until a 1700 departure when they could get up at a reasonable hour and be in London or wherever, by other means of transport, earlier than the 1700 departure would get them there.
What's needed is fewer seats but more often per day, something like a Do328 or SF340 morning and evening before increasing frequencies to three or four rotations daily, operate at the times the customers want to travel and to hell with your big shiny jets!
Skipness,
It's not about changing ... Back in the day there were up to 4 or 5 slots per day from PLH and NQY to/from LHR, departures from PLH/NQY around 0700 and 1700 and then a middle of the day service.
But then the World's favourite airline came along, and as they did with the Isle of Man, they effectively robbed Devon and Cornwall of their LHR slots for the purpose of lining their own shareholders pockets and now it is proposed that the British taxpayer fork out as a result.
P.S. And I don't need a market analyst to tell me when something stinks, I can smell it for myself.
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In what sense were they the county's slots? BA made a no brainer commercial decision to swap a DHC7 slot to Cornwall for a twinjet slot to Europe. No laws were broken, and those Brymon slots were not ring fenced.
It's all part of a lack of a coherent strategic policy where we might have a third runway WITH ring fenced slots for NQY, INV, IOM, JER, GCI and share some of the wealth London enjoys by having a world hub. Sorry that's just madness I know....
It's all part of a lack of a coherent strategic policy where we might have a third runway WITH ring fenced slots for NQY, INV, IOM, JER, GCI and share some of the wealth London enjoys by having a world hub. Sorry that's just madness I know....
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Skipness,
The country is called England, indeed United Kingdom, London is not merely the capital just for Londoners and/or all the foreign nationals residing there, it is the capital of the people of England, many of which have business to conduct there, and it is only reasonable that they be provided with a reasonable means of transport for getting to and from there and/or to connect with London's world hub.
Signed
Phileas Fogg
Born in the Borough of Twickenham
The country is called England, indeed United Kingdom, London is not merely the capital just for Londoners and/or all the foreign nationals residing there, it is the capital of the people of England, many of which have business to conduct there, and it is only reasonable that they be provided with a reasonable means of transport for getting to and from there and/or to connect with London's world hub.
Signed
Phileas Fogg
Born in the Borough of Twickenham
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Phileas,
Surely it's not that Flybe couldn't make it work (although night stopping an aircraft where there is no base is never going to help on a thinish route long term), it's that they got themselves into such a mess financially they had to sell their Gatwick slots, making the route impossible for them to operate.
They fought long and hard, and wrote off what was it £2m? to get a monopoly on the route in the first place, it must have seemed worth it at some stage.
The blame for no long term London route lies squarely at the feet of the inept and naive airport management. Lets see if this latest disaster leads to another payrise.
Surely it's not that Flybe couldn't make it work (although night stopping an aircraft where there is no base is never going to help on a thinish route long term), it's that they got themselves into such a mess financially they had to sell their Gatwick slots, making the route impossible for them to operate.
They fought long and hard, and wrote off what was it £2m? to get a monopoly on the route in the first place, it must have seemed worth it at some stage.
The blame for no long term London route lies squarely at the feet of the inept and naive airport management. Lets see if this latest disaster leads to another payrise.
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In what sense were they the county's slots?
it is the capital of the people of England, many of which have business to conduct there, and it is only reasonable that they be provided with a reasonable means of transport for getting to and from there and/or to connect with London's world hub.
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oapilot,
Knowing the route and the catchment area of old I'd suggest that FlyBE's load factors and/or yield were something similar to p1ss poor.
Brymon, BA, ASW were offering Y25 per flight some 3 or 4 times per day, that's a max of 100 seats to fill per day, how many seats were FlyBe trying to fill per day and just perhaps this was just one of the routes that got them in to such a mess financially!
Knowing the route and the catchment area of old I'd suggest that FlyBE's load factors and/or yield were something similar to p1ss poor.
Brymon, BA, ASW were offering Y25 per flight some 3 or 4 times per day, that's a max of 100 seats to fill per day, how many seats were FlyBe trying to fill per day and just perhaps this was just one of the routes that got them in to such a mess financially!
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EMB145-ER
Ref to LCY and bmi, why not? No bmi ops at LCY or NQY, but more significantly pre 9am arrival at LCY has exorbitant charges. Given current volume on BE via LGW , circa 160 per day each way, a move to bmi on LCY, numbers would decline due to 1. Higher fares due to airport used and smaller higher cost ac and 2. Lack of connecting passengers via LCY.
EI - bud
Ref to LCY and bmi, why not? No bmi ops at LCY or NQY, but more significantly pre 9am arrival at LCY has exorbitant charges. Given current volume on BE via LGW , circa 160 per day each way, a move to bmi on LCY, numbers would decline due to 1. Higher fares due to airport used and smaller higher cost ac and 2. Lack of connecting passengers via LCY.
EI - bud
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Plus as EI-BUD correctly points out, bmi has no operations at either NQY or LCY. That'd add station costs which are not reflected in the fare guesstimate above. Marketing costs are also not included: bmi isn't in the London market and would be unlikely to want to spend a fortune marketing itself in London just for a NQY route. If the focus is therefore on Cornwall-originating passengers, who's going to be on the morning flight from LCY back to NQY? The route would be a very directional one.
(Of course a PSO would be an entirely different game. It will be very interesting to see how any PSO specification deals with the choice of London airports, i.e. will the PSO pay the extra costs associated with flying to LCY, or will the PSO exclude London airport costs from its evaluation and therefore tacitly push flights to the cheapest London airport?)
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It's all part of a lack of a coherent strategic policy where we might have a third runway WITH ring fenced slots for NQY, INV, IOM, JER, GCI and share some of the wealth London enjoys by having a world hub. Sorry that's just madness I know....
There's a role here for smaller carriers, would not expect these to provided by BA or VS with A319s. Under those circumstances, BD regional could be a contender, why not?
The 4 conditions outlined in reply #485 are needed to make any of this likely or viable.
Skipness,
The country is called England, indeed United Kingdom, London is not merely the capital just for Londoners and/or all the foreign nationals residing there, it is the capital of the people of England, many of which have business to conduct there, and it is only reasonable that they be provided with a reasonable means of transport for getting to and from there and/or to connect with London's world hub.
Signed
Phileas Fogg
Born in the Borough of Twickenham
The country is called England, indeed United Kingdom, London is not merely the capital just for Londoners and/or all the foreign nationals residing there, it is the capital of the people of England, many of which have business to conduct there, and it is only reasonable that they be provided with a reasonable means of transport for getting to and from there and/or to connect with London's world hub.
Signed
Phileas Fogg
Born in the Borough of Twickenham
As for Twickenham, it's a fine town, know it well!
Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 27th Oct 2013 at 22:37.
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Indeed, Phileas, quite right, and not just England, all of the UK needs this access
As for Twickenham, it's a fine town, know it well!
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Cyrano - interesting I was also doing a back of the envelope and we have come up with the same fare levels which are roughly equivalent to the first class rail fare, always a good guide!
EI-BUD - I am slightly confused where you get a daily average of 160 passengers? Flybe themselves quote just under 100.000 during 2012 which is nowhere even remotely close to that.
Bear in mind the subsidy to the airport this year is budgeted at £3 million and passenger throughput including London is down to 166,000 it doesn't take a market analyst to see how much extra each one has to contribute to make the airport break even!! Now take away the 100,000 on Gatwick and see the result....£45 per head.
I have a cheaper plan, want to come to Cornwall or go to London, here you are have a free rail ticket.
EI-BUD - I am slightly confused where you get a daily average of 160 passengers? Flybe themselves quote just under 100.000 during 2012 which is nowhere even remotely close to that.
Bear in mind the subsidy to the airport this year is budgeted at £3 million and passenger throughput including London is down to 166,000 it doesn't take a market analyst to see how much extra each one has to contribute to make the airport break even!! Now take away the 100,000 on Gatwick and see the result....£45 per head.
I have a cheaper plan, want to come to Cornwall or go to London, here you are have a free rail ticket.
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EI-BUD - I am slightly confused where you get a daily average of 160 passengers? Flybe themselves quote just under 100.000 during 2012 which is nowhere even remotely close to that.
I stand corrected, my source is the CAA website and monthly stats for September, which show total passenger traffic on the route was 8110, down 6% on the same month last year. This is for total passengers flown in both directions, so a total of 135 per day each way and not 160 as previously advised.
I like your idea of free train fares on the route. Not that it impacts me. That suggestion is something like Mary Portas got put into place between Margate and London in an attempt to put life into the town centre ... On a slightly different note.
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Why not get a smaller feeder airline in place, like Citywing with a 19 seater, flying into Stansted, Luton or Oxford? I incidentally messaged the Citywing facebook page and asked them about it, to them responding with -
''We currently have no plans to operate a Newquay service to London (though you are right, it'd have to be to Oxford, Stansted or Southampton as the destination). We have been watching what's been going on with FlyBe and Gatwick however, and I'm surprised that EasyJet aren't going to do it, considering we have a very similar situation here on the Isle of Man where they are going to continue the service.
We constantly evaluate new route opportunities however, and if nothing else does come off FlyBe and EasyJets movements, we may re-evaluate.''
Other feeders possibly Eastern with a J41, Loganair with a Saab340.
''We currently have no plans to operate a Newquay service to London (though you are right, it'd have to be to Oxford, Stansted or Southampton as the destination). We have been watching what's been going on with FlyBe and Gatwick however, and I'm surprised that EasyJet aren't going to do it, considering we have a very similar situation here on the Isle of Man where they are going to continue the service.
We constantly evaluate new route opportunities however, and if nothing else does come off FlyBe and EasyJets movements, we may re-evaluate.''
Other feeders possibly Eastern with a J41, Loganair with a Saab340.
While the idea of Citywing is interesting, I just can't see Oxford or Southampton working. Southampton to Waterloo takes a minimum of 1h15. A taxi from Kidlington to Oxford followed by a train to Paddington also takes a minimum of 1h15. Assume 1h00 flight in a prop, 10 mins from aircraft seat to leaving the airport, 10 mins at train station for ticket / waiting for a train, 30 mins at Newquay for checkin, and 30 mins from office to Newquay airport, and you are already at 3h35. And that's just to Paddington / Waterloo rather than the place in London you want to reach.
A train from St Austell to Paddington is approx every hour, takes 4h30 and has the advantage of being undisturbed time allowing work to be done. The result is that while for Newquay residents a flight to OXF or SOU makes sense, you have shrunk the catchment area quite a bit, making it harder to get enough bums on seats.
If an air route to London is to work, I think it'll have to be Stanstead or maybe Luton - Southampton and Oxford are just too far from London to really be competitive without some sort of taxpayer subsidy.
A train from St Austell to Paddington is approx every hour, takes 4h30 and has the advantage of being undisturbed time allowing work to be done. The result is that while for Newquay residents a flight to OXF or SOU makes sense, you have shrunk the catchment area quite a bit, making it harder to get enough bums on seats.
If an air route to London is to work, I think it'll have to be Stanstead or maybe Luton - Southampton and Oxford are just too far from London to really be competitive without some sort of taxpayer subsidy.
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 29th Oct 2013 at 15:35.
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I agree, Luton, Stansted would be viable options. If Citywing were to carry out services, do you reckon smaller airports like Farnborough could be considered? Just food for thought
If Citywing were to carry out services, do you reckon smaller airports like Farnborough could be considered? Just food for thought