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Old 7th Jan 2016, 11:46
  #4421 (permalink)  
 
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5 routes to follow and 5 routes were also being named.

Let's see what happens I'm guessing most if not all will be on sale when winter goes on sale which is around march2016??
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 12:34
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A piece just shown on BBC Newsline says further new routes would depend on abolition or significant reduction to APD.

Ah well. Gatwick's nice in March.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 13:08
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So far so good but maybe looking for some more incentives before they announce more routes for the winter
Currently good growth on the London market (see caa stats) so should not step on EZY toes too much
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 13:23
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Originally Posted by LBIA
No mention what so ever by Ryanair to name the destinations to be introduced in October then! eg Berlin, Barcelona, East Midlands, Leeds/Bradford and Newcastle.
How big was BFS/LBA when Jet2 was at its peak on the route? I'm guessing 80-100k.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 13:30
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So basically, today, Ryanair has replaced Aer Lingus's existing Belfast City/Gatwick three flights per day service with their Belfast International/Gatwick four flights one? ...and axed their Derry/Alicante service, to boot.

Just how many jobs did that actually create? Surely not the 750 being widely quoted.

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Old 7th Jan 2016, 14:18
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anothertyke here are the CAA figures for the Jet2 years on the Leeds/Bradford - Belfast Int’l route

2003 = 12,264 (Started late October)
2004 = 94,412
2005 = 96,055
2006 = 112,134
2007 = 107,192
2008 = 104,765
2009 = 87,838
2010 = 82,469
2011 = 82,685
2012 = 51,535
2013 = 22,466 (Route axed in March)
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 14:37
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So a net gain of 4 LGW rotations on a route already being served by an established carrier with competitive fares. Further routes implied to be subject to the abolition of APD? Given that BFS current operators currently fly Euro routes, are subject to APD and with similar or higher cost bases I'd say Michael is living in cloud cuckoo land.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 15:02
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The first airline to carry more than 100 million passengers in a year with a 17% growth in 2015 is back in Belfast, that's good news.

We used to call Chinchilla Airport in Australia, Cloud Cuckoo Land (CCL)
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 15:03
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Given that BFS current operators currently fly Euro routes, are subject to APD and with similar or higher cost bases I'd say Michael is living in cloud cuckoo land
Oh I'd say quite the opposite, it's pure traditional MoL pragmatism.

Without spending a penny he has ensured that BIA will spend the next months organising a 'grass roots' campaign to lobby Stormont to in turn lobby Westminster about APD.

Meanwhile he can camp-out on the Belfast - Gatwick slots and cause a bit of pain for his rival, whilst waiting for the remedy slots to decay into normal Gatwick slots that he can deploy more usefully. If nothing has happened in terms of APD at that point then he'll pull out of Belfast with some snarky comment about Stormont's inaction.

Genius as ever.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 15:06
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Nail on the head El Bunto
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 15:10
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Have to agree EL Brunto, however I would assume winter routes are probably going to be announced in late March, early April. Not much time to change APD
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 15:22
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Also 6 routes out of 3 aircraft isn't exactly a big base in FR terms. When you think they have 4 based aircraft at BHX and have 24 routes on sale and have had that up to the 30 off mark, albeit with a mix of based and non based operating them. As has been said on here previously they won't risk affecting their DUB routes too much, other than to wield a lever of power in bargaining.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 19:44
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Lets give a little bit of credit for once, great news for BFS and more jobs for Norn Iron.Great news like this does not come around too often so for the knockers can we put it to bed and be positive for once and hopefully the folks on the hill with the masks can see the big tourism potential this can create and pump the much needed finances into this investment both in supporting BFS and RYR and investing in the pathetic road network in and around the airport.Rant over
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 22:01
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The creation of jobs is a myth. If Ryanair go head to head with other BFS operators any jobs created with be lost in other carriers, who actually employ on permanent UK contracts with better terms. Any European route whose economics are so tenuous that it can't withstand APD is unlikely to be viable in the long run...even if it flies to a cheaper 'alternative' destination airfields. If BFS had bothered to lobby for the abolition of APD in the first place its existing carriers would likely have expanded anyway. BFS have bitten the hands that have fed it through thick and thin. There is only ever one winner in the Ryanair/airport relationship. I'd say it's a sad day for 'Lough Neagh International'.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 02:40
  #4435 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Husky One
The creation of jobs is a myth. If Ryanair go head to head with other BFS operators any jobs created with be lost in other carriers, who actually employ on permanent UK contracts with better terms. Any European route whose economics are so tenuous that it can't withstand APD is unlikely to be viable in the long run...even if it flies to a cheaper 'alternative' destination airfields. If BFS had bothered to lobby for the abolition of APD in the first place its existing carriers would likely have expanded anyway. BFS have bitten the hands that have fed it through thick and thin. There is only ever one winner in the Ryanair/airport relationship. I'd say it's a sad day for 'Lough Neagh International'.
It is not only airline jobs created but very many businesses will benefit directly or indirectly.

Life is not always so great in the other carriers as they all give first officers tough contracts.

They have lobbied for APD repeal and when that didn't work because the DUP only care about City, they even comissioned a report to challenge the executive's findings. What else do you expect them to do?

The hand that fed it also kept it keen for a long time when there were more scraps that could have fallen off the table, concentrating on feeding itself too. They coexist at many similar sized airfields so why not here.

Only winner on the Ryanair/airport relationship? You mean the passengers?

As for Lough Neagh International, if 12nm is a big trek to get to a city then I will stick my head up my own rear and disappear, how many places around the world have their international airport within city limits? Utter horse whoopsie on this thread today.

How about we change the habit of a lifetime and think about trying something from N.I. as opposed to squabbling over stupid preconceived ideas about what will happen. If FR fail then so what. At least lets give it a go....
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 04:52
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They coexist at many similar sized airfields so why not here.
Name one.

Lough Neagh International
That's what O'Leary called it years ago.

How about we change the habit of a lifetime and think about trying something from N.I. as opposed to squabbling over stupid preconceived ideas about what will happen. If FR fail then so what. At least lets give it a go....
You've flown FR from LDY many times then I take it, as part of trying something from NI?
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 06:46
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SecondDog,
I've seen that spreadsheet too. And yes if some state of co-existence prevails then there'll be a little benefit however that isn't how Ryanair tend to work so if you end up swapping orange or silver hulls for harp tails the net ancillary gain will be zero of negative. We're not talking about a passenger demographic that tend to spend large at airports here. Not to mention the fact that real jobs would be replaced by inferior contracts.

In what world do you think Ryanair crew contracts are comparible to those at Easy? Have you actually read them? Or are you assuming that you can just forget to pay tax as director of your own company that 'just happens' to provide crew services exclusively to the Ryan's?

You have claimed that the DUP only care about the City. That's probably true so remind me how that's going to get APD lifted by October then?

Passengers winning..how does that work if ultimately one carrier replaces another?

My ideas are far from preconceived. I've seen this play out before many times.
I hope that on this occasion their competitors actually give them a fight.

PS - sorry you didn't get the irony about Lough Neagh International
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 06:51
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The creation of jobs is a myth. If Ryanair go head to head with other BFS operators any jobs created with be lost in other carriers, who actually employ on permanent UK contracts with better terms
As a business, any business, not just airlines, if you want to get your business news further up the headlines the trick is to insert into your press release that your development will "create [x] jobs in the city / region".

The reality is usually as you describe it - be the company a DIY store, bus company or airline!
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 07:03
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Husky One - I couldn't agree more. Short-termism blinkers what will be the inevitable reality of the situation. FR will ride roughshod over any and all to get their margins.

This utopian notion that FR will coexist with EZY needs a serious reality check. When they've competed before on this island it ended in one major loser. Who that will be this time is less clear cut than was the case with EZY withdrawing from DUB etc. Worst case scenario is that BFS themselves take a hit.

All very interesting and potentially fraught times. But sure, for a while Joe Public might get a cheap run to LGW. Happy days.
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 08:30
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Some very passionate debate here on this topic. There clearly is a general concern that FR will cannibalise the business for itself and squeeze easyJet out. While I agree Ryanair is a fierce competitor, Belfast in my view will be very different to what happened when the 2 have competed heavily at various airports like Madrid, Shannon, Cork, Knock where easyJet pulled out, closed bases or cut routes respectively.

In areas where easyJet has a core market ie in GB it has held firm against Ryanair. Airports like Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, Glasgow and Edinburgh the two compete toe to toe and in many of these easyJet is the larger carrier and on many of the routes has la bigger operation. These are all home grown markets for easyJet, ie not like STN that EasyJet had inherited from an acquisition. STN from what I can see is not the same, though just as FR have put it up to them on domestics, easyJet has so far held firm.

Despite all of this, Ryanair have become a much more rigorous competitor to easyJet in the last two years than hitherto opening up bases at the same airports as easyJet like at Malpensa, Fiumincino etc. And of course adding routes like STN EDI, STN GLA and now BFS LGW. EasyJet no longer can run, they cannot continue to defer capacity away to more attractive markets, Vueling are everywhere, and the cosy niches that EasyJet has persued at large hubs competing with the legacy carriers are now Ryanair's bread and butter too.

So put simply, whether Ryanair fly to Belfast or not the airports here are not isolated from all of these competitive challenges that are outlined in this thread. EasyJet has to compete, it has to have a model that can compete with Ryanair, it cannot simply cut and run, otherwise it will not be sustainable , so sadly eventually easyJet will have to address is cost base to compete with Ryanair unless it has another formula up its slieve to compete, but I can't see it. There are more similarities than there are differences between the two airlines. This last sentence alone will be debated and it is a debate worthy of its own thread, but Ryanair had improved greatly, it even will remove is gaudy yellow cabin look, which have a sense of crampedness, this and the always getting better program have from what I've seen transformed the airline.

Let's also not forget that Ryanair has an eye watering order book, so they will just grow and grow. They'll be almost everywhere, they are even pursuing slots at airports like CDG, ORY, airports they said they'd never touch. So for me it is clear that easyJet needs to stand is ground...
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