BIRMINGHAM - 5

[GayFriendly]

no-one seems to have explained why BA were able to fly daily BHX-MAD for many years all year round

Or why EZY make a go of it from LPL and BRS (I think in high summer its 2 x daily from LPL?) yet have just announced they are pulling MAN-MAD?

As for BA BHX-MAD, well I don't know why they managed year round ops but perhaps because the flight originated in (I think) EDI and the lack of no frills flights in those days from BRS, EMA, LPL, LTN which started to draw pax away from BHX could partly explain it. Remember that there was no BA-IB tie up in those days. IB operated BHX-MAD in their own right using MD81/87's although am not sure if both airlines operated it at the same time. Once no frills flights got established of course the high BA cost base spelt the end of routes like MAD, ATH, VIE etc from BHX

The only possible candidate other than IB would have been EZY but even they are closing their MAD base now, so really unless ZB have a go (I suppose it does fit into their new 'city' strategy) I can't see BHX-MAD operating at all for a long time to come

[crewmeal]

no-one seems to have explained why BA were able to fly daily BHX-MAD for many years all year round

Don't forget back in the 90's BHX was a viable hub for BA/Maersk flights where pax would feed in and out of BHX. It was particularly popular with Scottish routes. Timings were always set, so there was no overlap and the domestic services fed many of the European routes. JFK and ORD were good alternative hub routes feeding into Europe, avoiding LHR.

There is nothing like that now sadly.

[TartinTon]

back in the 90's BHX was a viable hub for BA/Maersk flights

Hardly. Maersk was used to propogate the BA brand where they couldn't be bothered and milk AP Moller for a large 7-figure sum for the "benefit" of using the BA brand via the franchise fee. Fares were always skewed to offer LON connections first followed by MAN and then any other points. Maersk got screwed by BA. When a franchise route became too profitable all of a sudden BA would claim it back as their own. BA had the advantage of seeing all revenues and yields so could make that call as they saw fit as all bookings were made through the BA host system.

[Skipness One Echo]

BA would claim it back as their own.

I genuinely can't think of one off the top of my head. Can you give some examples? The BA cost base being added to a franchise route would often mean a profit maker for the franchisee crashing into the red on transfer to Mainline.

[crewmeal]

Maersk was used to propogate the BA brand where they couldn't be bothered and milk AP Moller for a large 7-figure sum for the "benefit" of using the BA brand via the franchise fee.

I know that. I only mentioned it because of the convenience to the passenger and not the politics. I know that BA were 'jealous' of Maersk's success on various routes and the endless times that passengers would say that they had never heard of this 'route' and only found out by chance. BA's behaviour towards the franchise was disgraceful. If it worked properly then more routes could have been established and more money would have been made for BA!!

There was talk of Maersk going 'low cost' and breaking away from BA altogether, but they were having none of it, and eventually screwed Maersk to the ground. The rest is history.

[scott737]

Maersk/BA

To give one example that comes to mind straightaway of a route initially started by Maersk and then 'transferred' to BA would be BHX-FCO. I think Maersk operated 737s down to FCO for a while before BA operated it with their AR1s.

I'm pretty sure there were other routes similarly swapped from Maersk to BA but my memory is hazy. I can't think of (m)any that were transferred the other way...

Scott

[OltonPete]

May route Analysis

Passenger figures from the CAA, average pax and load factor estimated using blogs and libhomeradar. The 2011 figures are in brackets and these are schedule routes only. I suspect some load factors were better as I did not have all the cancellation data.

It seems Hamburg and Milan have a bit too much capacity!

Amsterdam-41855-(41079)-99 pax- 74%
Paris CDG-29946-(27131)-89 pax - 75%
Frankfurt-22293- (26389) - 97 pax - 62%
Munich- 14727-(13079) - 79 pax - 68%
Dusseldorf-16392-(16538)- 47 pax - 57%
Hanover- 5185-(5612) - 48 pax - 57%
Hamburg-4625-(2360)-32 pax-38%
Stuttgart-3681 (3804) - 37 pax - 47%
Zurich-10920-(13222)- 64 pax - 66%
Copenhagen -7510-(7383)- 71 pax - 70%
Brussels- 9083- (11396) - 40 pax - 48%
Rome FCO-7348 (nil)- 94 pax - 56%
Milan MXP-6523-(4670) - 68 pax - 41%
Venice VCE-2757-(nil)- 77 pax - 44%
Nice-4035-(3104) - 101 pax -68%
Lyon-nil-(3270)
Avignon-215-(93)-36 pax-46%
Dublin-42594-(44771)- - 67%
Cork-6895-(6578) - 46 pax - 64%
Ireland West (KNOCK)-4688-(3776)- 90 pax - 61%
Shannon 2250-(3001- 36 pax - 50%
Waterford-1484-(1220) - 24 pax - 31%
Alicante- 26226- (22697) - 156 pax - 86%
Almeria-3389-(3187) - 188 pax - 88%
Barcelona-3553-(nil) - 104 pax - 70%
Gerona-5118-(3768)- 151 pax - 80%
Ibiza-5749-(5083)- 151 pax - 78%
Mahon--5995-(6542)- 176 pax - 82%
Malaga 25862 (27477) - 156 pax-84%
Murcia-8709-(8658) - 136 pax - 79%
Palma- 19487 (14969) - 160 pax - 85%
Reus- 3439-(3781)- 132 pax - 70%
Tenerife-12000- (13901) - 182 pax - 90%
Arrecife-8009 (7843) - 167 pax - 84%
Las Palmas-6051 (5568) - 168 pax - 84%
Fuerteventura-2766 (4989) - 153 pax - 80%
Faro 19247-(18682) - 163 pax - 85%
Lisbon-1789-(nil) - 99 pax - 68%
Montpellier- 2041-(2535)- 128 pax - 67%
Triest-1,928-(2180)- 107 pax - 57%
Budapest- 2585-(nil)- 144 pax - 76%
Bratislava-4386-(4435)- 157 pax - 83%
Prague- 3724-(nil) - 116 pax - 78%
Katowice-3260-(3109)- 164 pax - 87%
Bydgoszcz-4,807-(4535) 172 pax - 91%
Rzesnow- 3,086-(3068)- 171 pax - 91%
Gdansk- 2913-(2943) - 162 pax - 86%
Kaunas 2,893-(2873) - 161 pax - 85%
Dubai-30542-(36953)- 246 pax-61%
Islamabad-8356-(8553)- 232 pax - 67%
Istanbul 7307-(4049) - 118 pax - 76
New York EWR- 9361-(9570) - 151 pax - 89%
Ashkhabad-4471-(4860)- 132 pax - 70%
Malta-2670-(2957)- 167 pax - 88%
Paphos- 4165- (2977) - 160 pax - 79%
Larnaca -7134- (5008) - 162 pax -82%
Dalaman 8223 (4646) - 164 pax - 81%
Bodrum- 2986-(738)-136 pax-78%
Heraklion-2644-(nil)-147 pax-75%
Dubrovnik-2460-(466)-102 pax - 66%

Pete

[CARNMANORLAD]

Pete,

Is Derry no longer a destination from BHX? Seems you've left it out on quite a few occasions when doing your stats.

[FlyOften]

CARNMANORLAD, Londonderry is domestic, and it looks like Pete excludes those. Would be interesting to see them however, especially as EMA has lost the baby Scottish routes until flybe pick them up.

[OltonPete]

Domestic Passengers

CARNMANORLAD & FlyOften

With domestic it is mainly flybe with Eastern and FR LDY making up the rest and all but the latter these are not easy to track.

All FR flights are reported on a BHX blog and our easy to log but flybe are a mare as they often change aircraft, cancel, consolidate flights and often libhomeradar doesn't show all their rotations for one reason or another.

This leaves the CAA punctuality stats from the CAA and they run about 6-8 weeks in arrears but I will play catch-up and post the last few months when I get the time.

Today saw flybe once again using the F50 on Isle of Man and Waterford, a Q400 replacing a 195 for the second day running but no cancellations.

Air Finland operated Monarch Rome today although it won't be available tomorrow as it is operating a charter to Kiev at 06.00 - apparently some sporting event on over there

Pete

[crewmeal]

Pete - What's your view on the endless nose diving figures for Dubai?

[GayFriendly]

DXB

The nosedive in figures is very worrying as is EK's reluctance to offer First Class from BHX on what is now a mature route for them. Have we got to a point where there are simply so many flights to the Middle East from MAN and LHR/LGW that BHX is being squeezed in the middle? Not that I wish them any ill at all but I don't think TK have helped either - I think a lot of Indian connecting traffic seem to have defected to them, although to be fair these pax are well known for being price sensitive and therefore low yielding. TK are going up to 13 x weekly next summer! I can't see a third daily EK for now.

[OltonPete]

crewmeal & GayFriendly

I assume a mixture of reasons but BHX is not alone although Heathrow is holding up well as one might expect - here some are some May figures for three Middle Eastern routes. I still think the major aspect is over-capacity with GF states BHX getting squeezed. TK have increased but some say they have just picked up the Mahan Air passengers since they left.

Dubai (2011 in brackets)

Gatwick - 42886 (48074) -11% average per flight 230
Heathrow -139736 (137110) +2%
Birmingham - 30542 (36953) -17% average per flight 246 - 61%
Glasgow -19995 (20651) - 3% average per flight 323 - 75%
Manchester - 43590 (50511) -14% average per flight - 259 - 64%
Newcastle - 10329 (11778) - 12% average per flight - 167 - 62%

Manchester only achieved 64% due to EK21/22 was cancelled 9 times and EK17 was a low density A380 25 times out of 31 flights.

BHX saw 21 of 62 flights down-graded to low density 777's and it would have looked much worse if it was all two-class (20 x 3-class already in June).


Abu Dhabi

Heathrow 41739 (42798) -2%
Manchester 21369 (14625) +46% - 172 average per flight - 66%*

*Based on zero cancellations

Doha

Gatwick Nil (9103)
Heathrow 61043 (52271) +17%
Manchester 16516 (12271) +29% - 188 average per flight 67%

Both Heathrow and Manchester saw extra QR flights in 2012.

I used libhomeradar and planespotters.net for the frequency, type of aircraft used and seating capacity for each aircraft but I would say these figures will not be too far out. CAA stats used for the passenger figures.

There is little relief in the short-term as Ramadan starts mid July this year when traditionally figures usually recover due to the impending school holidays but it could be September before figures improve.



Pete

[chinapattern]

I wonder if passengers who would normally originate from BHX are now opting to fly for MAN/LHR because an AM departure is more convenient? In the case of MAN this wasn't an issue twelve months ago but it seems that since the rapid increase in EK/QR/EY flights from MAN last year BHX has seen their numbers decrease. QR made it clear when they went twice daily they were trying to attract passengers from the midlands so their morning departure can't be helping and while I guess the majority of passengers don't care what plane they fly, for some flying the A380 out of LHR/MAN could also be persuasive.

[GayFriendly]

Thanks OP for the stats, as always very interesting reading and it certainly puts BHX's situation into perspective. However I worry that the bean counters at EK are casting more than a beady eye at both BHX and NCL as both have seemed weak for a while now.

crewmeal your are spot on - almost immediately after QR/EY/EK massively upped capacity at MAN, BHX-DXB loads started to decline. EK must have thought about this before coming in with the A380 and perhaps high yielding pax and cargo are enough to keep BHX afloat for them? EK are not cheap from BHX, fares from LON/MAN with them and QR/EY are often considerably cheaper. I hope EK do not end up like UA to EWR where you have to pay through the nose for the convenience of using BHX. I have just looked for BHX-MCT for October half term and can get it from MAN with QR and EY (AND a same day connection both ways thanks to the morning flight) for about £100 cheaper than EK from BHX which is an overnight flight. I'm sure there are many more examples like this. As crewmeal said I think the a.m departures ex MAN are very attractive as they allow same day connections to a whole host of destinations in the Middle East and Indian sub-continent, smething you can't do from BHX on current EK timings.

Funnily enough though the cheapest of all airlines to MCT for my preferred dates (Sat-Sat) are not Middle Eastern based, in fact it's KLM who can do it for just over £400 from BHX, although its two changes at AMS and BAH making it quite a long journey (EK out of interest on same dates is £576 although I would probably have the whole row to myself going on current loads ).

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Funnily enough though the cheapest of all airlines to MCT for my preferred dates (Sat-Sat) are not Middle Eastern based, in fact it's KLM who can do it for just over £400 from BHX, although its two changes at AMS and BAH making it quite a long journey (EK out of interest on same dates is £576 although I would probably have the whole row to myself going on current loads"

Check it again, GayFriendly, BAH may just be a "stopover" rather than a "change". Chances are that you will stay on the plane while it's on the ground for an hour or so, while BAH-bound pax disembark, some pax may join the flight (depending if they 5th freedom rights), there may be a little refueling, the cleaners may run through the cabin, and the cabin crew may ask pax to identify their carry-on baggage.

It sounds a similar arrangement to BA's LHR-MCT which has a stop at AUH.
As for AMS, it's an easy airport to do a change in, it's all under one roof, but be aware that security is at the gate, so don't buy a bottle of water for the flight!

It's no hardship and £400 is not a bad price these days!

[jabird]

Or has demand on all LH eased since APD went up in April? May would be the first full month of this?

Just want to exclude anything which isn't within control of BHX & EK?

I would be more worried about this than any (ex)-baby routes which haven't been replaced (yet).

Mgmt are placing great hopes on the runway extension, the very point of which is to enable more direct links to some of the places currently served by EK via DXB.

If your data was saying people are avoiding Brum to use direct services from LHR, then fine - the runway will remedy that. But you are saying that on like for like comparisons, BHX is inconvenient / badly timed / over-priced.

The solution to this surely lies in more competition - although your suggestion is that there is already too much due to TK?

Any answers?

[jabird]

Check it again, GayFriendly, BAH may just be a "stopover" rather than a "change".

As a geek, imho that's worse than a change as with a change you can get out, enjoy the superdooper airport terminal and stretch your legs.

With a stopover you go through the same to/l cycle again but you are then stuck on board during the change over.

Granted, same plane means you won't be waiting on a missed connection, but it ain't the same as going there non-stop.

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "As a geek, imho that's worse than a change as with a change you can get out, enjoy the superdooper airport terminal and stretch your legs.

With a stopover you go through the same to/l cycle again but you are then stuck on board during the change over.

Granted, same plane means you won't be waiting on a missed connection, but it ain't the same as going there non-stop."

Yes, it's not the same, but trust me, it isn't that bad! It's a short hop after BAH, 2 hours tops (?). For a breath of fresh air go and stand by the open door of the galley for a few minutes.

Would agree 100% if on a LHR-SYD stopover at SIN for example, pax travelling through were not allowed off the plane, but AMS-MCT via BAH isn't a hardship.

Has to be worth it to be on a reputable carrier and to save £176!

[jabird]

I also find it curious that BA themselves (through CitiExpress and BACON) maintained a BHX-MAD link for some years but now there seems to be no market for anyone to give it a go?

Just to go back to MAD, I have flown this route into EMA with FR, although that didn't last long.

Much of the discussion has been on MAD as a hub - all well and good, but its core market (South America) is of limited use, it is a longer way round for the USA or sub-Saharan Africa. What about the O&D? No idea what yields were like on EMA, but for city routes, surely BHX makes more sense. Ditto OSL and even HEL for DY one day? At least ARN now happening with SAS.