Ryanair - 8
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Durham
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Do the Chinese really need a Western customer? Surely they could build up production based on growing demand from Chinese carriers. And if they wanted a western customer to establish their image as not being cheap and nasty would Ryanair be the right choice?
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Newcastle NI
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I doubt that punters will care who makes the aircraft as long as they don't drop out of the sky, I think for a major European airline such as FR to order Chinese aircraft will be so aircraft attractive that they (FR) would get them for under 50% of the cost of the 737
It simple really FR must have a lower cost base than any one else and airframes are a huge expense,Ryanair have no choice they must go Chinese they will never get the same deal again from boeing
It simple really FR must have a lower cost base than any one else and airframes are a huge expense,Ryanair have no choice they must go Chinese they will never get the same deal again from boeing
European Airline talks to manufacturer about introduction of new jet.............
Funny how
BA got away with talking to Boeing
Air France got away with talking to Airbus
etc etc
Its a non story as all that has committed to is that an Airline is providing input to a Manufacturer.
Funny how
BA got away with talking to Boeing
Air France got away with talking to Airbus
etc etc
Its a non story as all that has committed to is that an Airline is providing input to a Manufacturer.
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Ireland
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For the C919, yes, they need a lot of Western customers. This aircraft is their big push into the world market - although the Chinese market is growing there's far more potential demand beyond the domestic market. I wouldn't say that they want a Western customer "to establish their image as not being cheap and nasty", rather that they want Western customers in order to prove that they have built an aircraft which is comparable (in terms of technology, reliability, performance, etc.) with Airbus/Boeing. Make no mistake, if Ryanair buys the aircraft (and as I said earlier, any such decision has to be at least a year or two away - this recent news announcement is "much ado about nothing" intended by Ryanair as much to put pressure on Boeing and their new-build 737-replacement as anything else), other Western carriers will follow.
Join Date: Aug 2009
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I doubt you'd see such a large order by FR until it's been flying for a while. FR always reckons their brand could survive up to 2 hull losses but I would halve that if they had a huge fleet of C919s. If one of those goes down no European is going to want to go on another one in a hurry. If FR was stuck with a whole fleet of them they 'd be in a very vulnerable position.
Join Date: Sep 2001
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One thing against Ryanair buying the C919 would be the lack of availability of experienced type-rated Captains. Introducing a new type for which there would be no pool of type-rated pilots could put the pilots in a very strong bargaining position, something that would not please Mr O'Leary.
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Coventry
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FR may be the daddy in Europe, but their biz model is still heavily based on WN. To date, neither airline has ordered (I know FR had some 2nd hand 1-11s) outside the 737 range - of course that isn't to say a 737 is pre-requisite for loco ops, but it does say a lot for the single-fleet argument.
My guess would be that Boeing don't need to offer anywhere near the same discount as previously, as there are numerous growth markets right now which are hungry for frames, but MOL will still never pay list.
Ultimately, my suspicion is that the desire to keep to one type will weigh heavily against the new a/c. Of course, an unproven a/c is alaways a risk, but you are generally dealing with low probabilities here which are hard to quantify in a purchasing decision. Even if FR do suffer another hull-loss (can you say a 1 in xx year event, where x > 10?), they would only have confidence issues if the cause of the incident were the airframe itself - afaik less than 20% of accidents? Incident at CIA was a birdstrike & also no fatalities so if anything a PR win for FR, albeit much less so than the Miracle on the Hudson!
My guess would be that Boeing don't need to offer anywhere near the same discount as previously, as there are numerous growth markets right now which are hungry for frames, but MOL will still never pay list.
Ultimately, my suspicion is that the desire to keep to one type will weigh heavily against the new a/c. Of course, an unproven a/c is alaways a risk, but you are generally dealing with low probabilities here which are hard to quantify in a purchasing decision. Even if FR do suffer another hull-loss (can you say a 1 in xx year event, where x > 10?), they would only have confidence issues if the cause of the incident were the airframe itself - afaik less than 20% of accidents? Incident at CIA was a birdstrike & also no fatalities so if anything a PR win for FR, albeit much less so than the Miracle on the Hudson!
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Coventry
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Just looking at air crash stats, site lists last fatal hull loss due to design flaw as being in 1994 (US427). So can we assume Comac will have a sufficiently rigourous testing procedure to ensure they don't become the next? No-one can afford a repeat of the DC10.
Join Date: Jun 2000
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I would have thought that if the B787 is a success there will be a B737 version already on the drawing board. Airbus have been expanding and reducing airframes with the same technology quite successfully for a few years. The B737 repalcement market is ripe and too big to ignore. If RYR can get Boeing to confirm a possible entry date for such an a/c they may deem it prudent to wait a few years. Could they squeeze a deal as launch customer? Time will tell. If their policy of selling airframes after 7 years at almost the price they paid continues, they will need replacements sooner rather than later.
If RYR's prodicious, but rather mysterious profitability, is based on the so-called value of its assets versus what they cost (i.e. paper profit), they need to achieve sales to realise this business model. If, as someone says, the values are deteriorating at re-sale, or even worse no-one buys, then this paper profit will also disappear. What then? Big question. If it's true that the B737 production line is sold out till end 2014 then RYR can have no buy slots for 18 months. It has been said that their business model also requires continued expansion. Could they risk a brand new type from a brand new manufacturer? To get a discount price that could compete with the earlier Boeing one would take a very large order. It the technology failed, or subsequent costs were too high, it would spell disaster. If the same business model of selling airframes after 7 years was employed, who knows if it will work for a new type? If the paper profit generated by the initial discounted purchase price could not be repeated with a new type the company's prodicious profitability might not continue.
What then?
If RYR's prodicious, but rather mysterious profitability, is based on the so-called value of its assets versus what they cost (i.e. paper profit), they need to achieve sales to realise this business model. If, as someone says, the values are deteriorating at re-sale, or even worse no-one buys, then this paper profit will also disappear. What then? Big question. If it's true that the B737 production line is sold out till end 2014 then RYR can have no buy slots for 18 months. It has been said that their business model also requires continued expansion. Could they risk a brand new type from a brand new manufacturer? To get a discount price that could compete with the earlier Boeing one would take a very large order. It the technology failed, or subsequent costs were too high, it would spell disaster. If the same business model of selling airframes after 7 years was employed, who knows if it will work for a new type? If the paper profit generated by the initial discounted purchase price could not be repeated with a new type the company's prodicious profitability might not continue.
What then?
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Coventry
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RAT5,
I don't think there is any mystery in FR's biz model - screw the best deal out of everyone, have eye-popping starter fares, then add on every extra going (a model only improved on by Caribbean startup Flyred!) and make even more from selling add-ons on FR.com website. MOL loves to hate travel agents because he is the biggest travel commission maker in the business! Then complete the picture by profiting from noshows and charging a fortune to change bookings.
So airframes are only part of the picture - a big part nonetheless!
I don't think there is any mystery in FR's biz model - screw the best deal out of everyone, have eye-popping starter fares, then add on every extra going (a model only improved on by Caribbean startup Flyred!) and make even more from selling add-ons on FR.com website. MOL loves to hate travel agents because he is the biggest travel commission maker in the business! Then complete the picture by profiting from noshows and charging a fortune to change bookings.
So airframes are only part of the picture - a big part nonetheless!
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Sweden
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Gambling with high stakes in Girona...
According to El Pais the regional government of Catalonia (the Generalitat) are about to offer Ryanair a better deal than the one the very same Generalitat tore up after the elections in January.
The cuts from Ryanair has meant a 30 % decrease in passengers in Girona. For more details (and more accurate information than my bad translation) please read the article...
Hopefully this means I can book my winter flights soon...
The cuts from Ryanair has meant a 30 % decrease in passengers in Girona. For more details (and more accurate information than my bad translation) please read the article...
Hopefully this means I can book my winter flights soon...
Bengt
If true then what it shows that if politicians want to bluff before they elected they better be aware the bluff can get called.
Irrespective of who it relates to I always enjoy politicians squirming.
If true then what it shows that if politicians want to bluff before they elected they better be aware the bluff can get called.
Irrespective of who it relates to I always enjoy politicians squirming.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Kent
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New routes from STN/FR resume to NQY?
Was making a booking just now and noticed Newquay was an option on the menu though no flights seem available to book. This is on the new version of the site. I know sometimes old routes appear on there, but Barcelona T2 was in there too which to my knowledge has never been done previously.