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Ryanair - 8

Old 30th Oct 2010, 20:58
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Ryanair - 8

I have opened this new Ryanair thread due to Ryanair-7 being closed,
I think due to an error, the last post most if not all of us could see was from
the 28thOct ... so what did we miss ? anything ?

Last edited by daz211; 30th Oct 2010 at 22:16.
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Old 31st Oct 2010, 09:00
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As daz211 says, the other thread was closed - because of a database problem.

So this thread is restored. Please do keep to topic and if you cannot find fact to debate - DON't make it up.

Enjoy.

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Old 31st Oct 2010, 09:16
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the song has a point

Hi all,

found a new song about Ryanair by Fascinating Aida. I think it shows that the 1 euro flight is well past its sell buy date.

YouTube - FASCINATING AIDA - Cheap Flights

I guess the MOL would use this as an advert!
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Old 31st Oct 2010, 09:27
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Barcelona base goes to 8 aircraft as of today. UK bases all dramatically cut excluding Edinburgh and Leeds. Edinburgh has as many flights today as in the summer if not more by looking at the BAA website, however a lot of flights now operated from other bases. The damaging £12 APD is obviously having it's effects felt across most UK airports.

An interesting winter expansion has been at Gothenburg City, lots of new flights for the winter schedule.

The only thing crazy is the lack of Ski flights this year, Grenoble isn't being operated from nearly every UK base as it was in the past 2 years.

Malaga seems to have lost a lot of flights, surprisingly so as I would have thought very low frequencies to Germany/Scandinavia would have worked well this winter.

The base announcements have gone quiet as of late, still expecting TFS/LPA/ACE/PMI/CPH/LIS all to be in the running with maybe TLL aswell. It will be interesting to see what the summer schedule will look like once released in the next few months.
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Old 31st Oct 2010, 10:00
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£12 APD is only a small rise of £1, the big changes are to long haul. I would expect Easyjet and Ryanair may even gain from the changes as people in the UK fky to spain or italy instead of US or Aus.
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Old 31st Oct 2010, 10:51
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The base announcements have gone quiet as of late, still expecting TFS/LPA/ACE/PMI/CPH/LIS all to be in the running with maybe TLL Oswell. It will be interesting to see what the summer schedule will look like once released in the next few months.
Ryanair summer 2011 to be on sale over the next week or two. Around half of DUB summer 2011 went on sale on Friday.

Lisbon as a base should be announced shortly as the only problem with it is the FR want to use the domestic terminal to achieve the 25min turnaround which can't be done in the International terminal.

CPH were giving FR a €20 discount per passenger and FR are still not happy about it.

As for Gothenburg I think a base will be there sometime during 2011

Malaga seems to have lost a lot of flights,
Malaga will have 2 a/c based for the winter compared to 4 in the summer.
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Old 31st Oct 2010, 16:04
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Summer 2011

Summer 2011 now on sale for Liverpool John Lennon.
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 17:46
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Derry - Alicante?

Is Derry - Alicante being dropped or is it just late being loaded for Summer 2011?
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 18:42
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Most routes that are operating for summer 2011 show as operating but no yet bookable but LDY - ALC shows nothing. With an average load factor of 75% it dosn't look good as Ryanair like the load factors to be over 84%.
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 18:57
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Might as well post today's half year results highlights!

- 17% increase in half year Profit to €452m
- Revenues rose 23% to €2.2bln
- Traffic grew by 10% to 40.1m passengers
- Average fares rose by 12%
- Unit costs rose by 13% (excluding fuel they rose by 4%)
- Sector length increased by 12%
- Full year Net Profit guidance increased to €380m-€400m range
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 20:57
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What were the BHD load factors to STN, EMA, LPL, PIK and BRS?
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 21:05
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Not sure but 84% on a route between Ireland or UK and Spain is the least you would expect. Anyway FR drop routes which don't make a profit.

Routes between UK & Ireland are different. Not sure about BHO but I think they would of being around 75% - 100%.
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 22:03
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Based

They are a cracking set of half year results and MO'L was in good form this morning on Sky with Eamonn Holmes.
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Old 1st Nov 2010, 23:38
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O'Leary, Fat Eamonn and Sky TV - a truly appalling combination.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 01:37
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Reading the presentation, costs appear to be presented - having risen in absolute % terms, but (ignoring fuel) having fallen when one makes an adjustment for increased sector length.

I don't have full details, but it would seem that if one makes a similiar adjustment based on increased sector length for revenue, then FR has probably seen ticket revenue unchanged in 2010 compared to 2009.

It seems to me that if you want to make an adjustment to the accounts because of a significant change in the business model - i.e. increased sector length - then one has to make that adjustment to both revenue and costs at the same time. Adjusting one but not the other to flatter the presented accounts seems like a bit of hocus-pocus to me.

Or am I missing something here ?
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 08:30
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Anyway FR drop routes which don't make a profit.
But also a plane that does nothing also does not make a profit. FR are cutting so many routes and dropping bases that it will have lots if idle planes with more flying in each year. Also the oil price has just hit a 6 month high and is expect to rise a lot more.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 09:53
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Out of interest, what would the affect on these figures have been if they hadn't postponed the arrival of the eight aircraft that are fully completed and currently gathering dust that were originally due for delivery between now and year end...
Even if they paid for 8 aircraft up front and in full, they would have posted a half year profit and, based on current guidance, a full year profit. Nice position to be in!

In these competitive times I'm just curious how much more the average fare would have to increase before Ryanair would no longer justifiably be able to call itself this....?
Until their average fare is higher than one of their competitors.

But also a plane that does nothing also does not make a profit. FR are cutting so many routes and dropping bases that it will have lots if idle planes with more flying in each year. Also the oil price has just hit a 6 month high and is expect to rise a lot more.
Any Ryanair aircraft on the ground have helped facilitate current profits which would have been lower if they were flying. As a matter of interest, how many idle aircraft are you projecting befree? Fuel costs are outlined in their half year presentation - 90% of FY11 hedged at $730pmt, 60% of FY12 hedged at $760pmt. Also what's your current thoughts on your predictions made earlier this year?

this year they face an extra 300 million euro fuel cost. their average ticket price is now 35 euros so they need an extra 9 million passengers to just pay the extra fuel cost.

the only way FR made more money was the big fall in the fuel cost last year.

They are likly to see less profit this year and long term will get hit by reduced value of the planes. they have to take a loss on teh reduced value when they sell them. last year they sold 3 and expect to sell 10 this year.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 10:24
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Is this the replacement for Ryr 7? New piece on French staff

I assume so....

Here - "Chez Ryanair, pour récupérer sa retraite, il faut aller en Irlande" | La Provence

if you read French, is a piece about Ryr staff conditions, poorly researched and/or badly edited, doesn't read logically. However it does indicate a race to the bottom by M. O'L. One might hope that if he ever gets a case heard at EU level they might suggest that other countries raise their game to ensure better protection for workers.

I'll be happy to provide a translation but try Google....

Bye, Barry
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 10:58
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Postponed the arrival of the eight aircraft that are fully completed and currently gathering dust that were originally due for delivery between now and year end...
Are you sure that 'Fully completed and currently gathering dust' is correct?
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 11:12
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Possibly a slight half year profit but undoubtedly a reduction in overall profits which combined with the increase in unit costs, fuel, and average fares puts a whole different slant on yesterdays figures, especially with the fact that some of Ryanair's main competitors are also starting to show signs of recovery in some areas.
At 22%, Ancillary Revenue (tea, coffee, baggage charges, credit card and handling charges, petty fines etc) seems to be the key growth area but you can only push those so far.
Really ?

So how does aircraft that supposedly were not to be delivered until last quarter of year impact on results to end of September ?
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