DURHAM TEES VALLEY AIRPORT - 5
DJ6 - you seem to have a rather a downer on the weekend Jersey BE flts. Can you expand as to why?
Also, when did you last see a phrase such as
applied to Blackpool? 
Being serious, Blackpool did have a large area of underused land which got sold off for retail etc development (I'm thinking of the area around Morrisons) and survived, as did Liverpool, so there is nothing wrong with the model as such, just at first glance the DTVA master plan looks a bit flakey (suppose I better finish reading the document now!)
Also, when did you last see a phrase such as
...booming as an airport again...
Being serious, Blackpool did have a large area of underused land which got sold off for retail etc development (I'm thinking of the area around Morrisons) and survived, as did Liverpool, so there is nothing wrong with the model as such, just at first glance the DTVA master plan looks a bit flakey (suppose I better finish reading the document now!)
SWBKCB - because Flybe are closing their Jersey base. Yes, the route could operate as a W route, but with flights just once per week for a very short season, and the non charter seats struggling to pull in fares much above £50 one way and a new CEO who seems keen on immediate action and reducing costs, DTV-JER all becomes a bit tenuous
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Jersey
The Jersey route is operated by a travel agent, can't remember the name, Jersey Travel perhaps, Flybe just won the contract and may have another season or two left to run, if they decide not to bid again and Jersey Travel feel the route is successful (I think pax numbers did increase a little thanks to the larger E175), then it will just go up for tender for another operator to move in.
The problem with the Jersey route is it doesn't run the full season, I have family who would love to use it but they always fly outbound on the last weekend it runs, so with no return flight they have to fly from elsewhere.
The problem with the Jersey route is it doesn't run the full season, I have family who would love to use it but they always fly outbound on the last weekend it runs, so with no return flight they have to fly from elsewhere.
KLM figures
October Down again..wonder what happened to the joint marketing campaign...obviously not too successful?
BTW Newcastle KLM up again.
However Aberdeen slight increase but unfortunately overtaken for the first time ever by Newcastle !!
total airport figures also continue to fall...maybe Peel have got it right?
BTW Newcastle KLM up again.
However Aberdeen slight increase but unfortunately overtaken for the first time ever by Newcastle !!
total airport figures also continue to fall...maybe Peel have got it right?
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total airport figures also continue to fall...maybe Peel have got it right?
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P330 I'd like to believe "The Plan" and note your optimism.
As to the cost & effort in it's preparation then there is no need to apportion any credit for effort etc. as it's publication is in effect mandatory in the process of supporting Peels position & what remains of their public image.
Like many plans they can, just like Peel's initial promises on acquisition of DTV, quite easily be "amended" with a bit of maneuvering and a little "spin" at the appropriate times.
The cynical view on all of this is that the process will proceed as a "war of attrition". Peel will earn substantial revenue from housing development and the runway maintained in an operational state in some form or other. However "eventually" there will be a "shift" in the plan whereby ALL aviation operations will move to the South of the runway with the total demolition of the Terminal & ancillary aviation related sites to the North. Proposed southside develoment would in reality cater for any relocation necessary from the north side including facilities for a mininimal no. of pax. Thus some 40%+ of the airport land will be released & available for development by Peel whether housing or whatever. Such release will more than cover what in the greater scheme will be incidental costs of relocation.
You must ask yourselves as to whether other than a few upset residents (and of course those airport employees who stand to lose their jobs), who would not actually endorse such a plan? After all the down side to "Joe Public" is at this stage likely to be minimal, it's not as if they have lost an airport, as it will have effectively ceased serving their needs (bucket & spade) some time prior.
As I referred to earlier as it being a "war of attrition" then "war" as oposed to "battle" is the key point here, & where is it all likely to end? as there is no guarantee that the development will stop at this point, and that issues will continue arise an issue in respect of further land disposals.
As to the cost & effort in it's preparation then there is no need to apportion any credit for effort etc. as it's publication is in effect mandatory in the process of supporting Peels position & what remains of their public image.
Like many plans they can, just like Peel's initial promises on acquisition of DTV, quite easily be "amended" with a bit of maneuvering and a little "spin" at the appropriate times.
The cynical view on all of this is that the process will proceed as a "war of attrition". Peel will earn substantial revenue from housing development and the runway maintained in an operational state in some form or other. However "eventually" there will be a "shift" in the plan whereby ALL aviation operations will move to the South of the runway with the total demolition of the Terminal & ancillary aviation related sites to the North. Proposed southside develoment would in reality cater for any relocation necessary from the north side including facilities for a mininimal no. of pax. Thus some 40%+ of the airport land will be released & available for development by Peel whether housing or whatever. Such release will more than cover what in the greater scheme will be incidental costs of relocation.
You must ask yourselves as to whether other than a few upset residents (and of course those airport employees who stand to lose their jobs), who would not actually endorse such a plan? After all the down side to "Joe Public" is at this stage likely to be minimal, it's not as if they have lost an airport, as it will have effectively ceased serving their needs (bucket & spade) some time prior.
As I referred to earlier as it being a "war of attrition" then "war" as oposed to "battle" is the key point here, & where is it all likely to end? as there is no guarantee that the development will stop at this point, and that issues will continue arise an issue in respect of further land disposals.
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RIP Teesside Airport
Yep planning permission will already have been sorted with all of the nodding council directors on the DTV board.
How much do they earn again
Peel have won this one. RIP Teesside airport.
The pold will have the place to themselves when KL pull out if Peel dont clear the snow off the tarmac this year.
Whats the betting Peel accidently dig up the power cables or drains to the hospital to try and close that place too. They want that land as well.
How much do they earn again
Peel have won this one. RIP Teesside airport.
The pold will have the place to themselves when KL pull out if Peel dont clear the snow off the tarmac this year.
Whats the betting Peel accidently dig up the power cables or drains to the hospital to try and close that place too. They want that land as well.
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Northbound, it would perhaps be better if you were to follow through with your own enquiries, rather than undermining your credibility with your latest comments.
The whole DTV situation is lamentable, but various pops at Peel are achieving nothing. If you are concerned as to how the compensation was dealt with, obtain a set of their published accounts!, then if you have issues as to these, then there are various actions open to you.
I note your frustration, there are undoutedly quite a number of individuals out there (brain dead or otherwise) who should, in an ideal world, be unable to look themselves in a mirror.
However when faced with no evidence of corruption or otherwise, and I am confused as to how you claim to establish a "masonic connection"?, then you ought to put up or shut up rather than continued snipes on this thread.
However if on the contrary you have some evidence or grounds for reasonable belief, then it would achieve a lot more if you were to make these known to the relevant authorities, or I'm sure the press would love a good story, but alas not a load of wishful fantasy!
The whole DTV situation is lamentable, but various pops at Peel are achieving nothing. If you are concerned as to how the compensation was dealt with, obtain a set of their published accounts!, then if you have issues as to these, then there are various actions open to you.
I note your frustration, there are undoutedly quite a number of individuals out there (brain dead or otherwise) who should, in an ideal world, be unable to look themselves in a mirror.
However when faced with no evidence of corruption or otherwise, and I am confused as to how you claim to establish a "masonic connection"?, then you ought to put up or shut up rather than continued snipes on this thread.
However if on the contrary you have some evidence or grounds for reasonable belief, then it would achieve a lot more if you were to make these known to the relevant authorities, or I'm sure the press would love a good story, but alas not a load of wishful fantasy!
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Peel Bashing...
North - Nothing wrong with having a pop at Peel as you put it....problem is, you are asking the same questions repeatedly. No-one is giving you an answer on here because they don't have an answer. In which case, isn't it better to ask the question of the media who can put your conspiracy theories to the test? Or is the theory that if you mention it enough times, a Peel person will pop up on Pprune and answer all of your questions?
Skyman - I suspect you're right on the war of attrition. I think it will be very hard to grow a passenger airport when what little there was has been deliberately eroded. I still maintain the plan can work, but I think they've given themselves a harder task with their PR mess-ups and also turning away charter business.
My interest now turns to KLM. I'm interested in the latest figures and hoping David posts them on here shortly. If and when those KLM figures/yields drop below the tipping point and KLM withdraw, then the master plan will quickly move to revision B. I really wonder how close we are to losing KLM? How close are KLM to saying this route is no longer profitable?
Skyman - I suspect you're right on the war of attrition. I think it will be very hard to grow a passenger airport when what little there was has been deliberately eroded. I still maintain the plan can work, but I think they've given themselves a harder task with their PR mess-ups and also turning away charter business.
My interest now turns to KLM. I'm interested in the latest figures and hoping David posts them on here shortly. If and when those KLM figures/yields drop below the tipping point and KLM withdraw, then the master plan will quickly move to revision B. I really wonder how close we are to losing KLM? How close are KLM to saying this route is no longer profitable?
Last edited by P330; 18th Nov 2013 at 12:32.
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Stats
David - do you know what the LF has now dropped to? I presume its a continued downward trend for the last 6 months?
I'd love to see a graph (or the data) that shows the monthly KLM figures/LF for the last 2 years to see if that gives us an indication of where we are heading. Do you know where I could get that information easily?
I'd love to see a graph (or the data) that shows the monthly KLM figures/LF for the last 2 years to see if that gives us an indication of where we are heading. Do you know where I could get that information easily?
UK Airport Statistics | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA
Looking at a load factor for a rolling 12 month window, beginning with the Jan09-Dec09 window, and finishing with the Nov12-Oct13 window, the load factor on the KLM DTV-AMS route has fallen from about 63% to 58%
In terms of raw passenger numbers over a rolling 1 year window, there used to be 50.25 passengers per DTV-AMS flight, now it's 46.5 passengers per flight
At the same time, for ever 100 passengers on DTV-AMS, during 2009 there was an average of 240 passengers on NCL-AMS. Over the last 12 months, for every 100 passengers on DTV-AMS, there are now 360 passengers on NCL-AMS
Remember - everything in this post is about a *rolling 1 year window*. This means that one month being a blip has very little effect - we're looking at long term averages here.
Looking at a load factor for a rolling 12 month window, beginning with the Jan09-Dec09 window, and finishing with the Nov12-Oct13 window, the load factor on the KLM DTV-AMS route has fallen from about 63% to 58%
In terms of raw passenger numbers over a rolling 1 year window, there used to be 50.25 passengers per DTV-AMS flight, now it's 46.5 passengers per flight
At the same time, for ever 100 passengers on DTV-AMS, during 2009 there was an average of 240 passengers on NCL-AMS. Over the last 12 months, for every 100 passengers on DTV-AMS, there are now 360 passengers on NCL-AMS
Remember - everything in this post is about a *rolling 1 year window*. This means that one month being a blip has very little effect - we're looking at long term averages here.
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 18th Nov 2013 at 14:36.
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David...thanks...
Thanks David...
This certainly indicates a steady and determined decline.
Using the website, I pulled the following rolling 12 month numbers from November last year and it shows a drop in the rolling average number of KLM passengers every single month.
These are the annual rolling figures for each of the last few months:
Nov 12 - 101,119
Dec 12 - 100,700
Jan 13 - 99,912
Feb 13 - 99,219
Mar 13 - 98,790
Apr 13 - 98,555
May 13 - 98,197
Jun 13 - 97,811
Jul 13 - 97,501
Aug 13 - 97,349
Sep 13 - 97,118
Oct 13 - 96,737
That represents almost a 4% drop in the last year. I would *expect* the recent announcements to have another negative impact on the numbers, but unless the current trends change, then you must surely be looking at KLM operations lasting another year to 18 months at best?
Of course, this analysis takes no account of yields....
This certainly indicates a steady and determined decline.
Using the website, I pulled the following rolling 12 month numbers from November last year and it shows a drop in the rolling average number of KLM passengers every single month.
These are the annual rolling figures for each of the last few months:
Nov 12 - 101,119
Dec 12 - 100,700
Jan 13 - 99,912
Feb 13 - 99,219
Mar 13 - 98,790
Apr 13 - 98,555
May 13 - 98,197
Jun 13 - 97,811
Jul 13 - 97,501
Aug 13 - 97,349
Sep 13 - 97,118
Oct 13 - 96,737
That represents almost a 4% drop in the last year. I would *expect* the recent announcements to have another negative impact on the numbers, but unless the current trends change, then you must surely be looking at KLM operations lasting another year to 18 months at best?
Of course, this analysis takes no account of yields....
Last edited by P330; 18th Nov 2013 at 21:17.
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Just to add...
For me, all eyes must now be on KLM. It would appear to me that KLM will have a major, and imminent say, on whether revision A of this masterplan goes ahead. At this rate, you would have to think they'll pull the plug before it gets off the ground....and then we're into Revision B........
I said earlier KLM won't care about the plan, but they will care about their yields and numbers and the worry is this trend was evident BEFORE the masterplan was announced. The numbers for October, November and December will make interesting reading.....
For me, all eyes must now be on KLM. It would appear to me that KLM will have a major, and imminent say, on whether revision A of this masterplan goes ahead. At this rate, you would have to think they'll pull the plug before it gets off the ground....and then we're into Revision B........
I said earlier KLM won't care about the plan, but they will care about their yields and numbers and the worry is this trend was evident BEFORE the masterplan was announced. The numbers for October, November and December will make interesting reading.....
Last edited by P330; 18th Nov 2013 at 15:50.
How long KLM stay on the DTV-AMS route is likely to be determined by a number of factors besides just the load factor.
- Do KLM want to go from triple daily to double daily, as they do at Manston ?
- What are KLM's fleet plans for the F70 ?
- How reliable are the F70s ?
- What's slot availability at Amsterdam like at the relevant times for a DTV route ?
- What's the breakeven revenue / load factor+yield of running a F70 ?
- How much equity capital is being used to keep the DTV route, and what return are KLM seeing on this equity ?
- Is there demand for F70s from other airlines ? These are old aircraft, Fokker have gone bust, so there are no new aircraft being made with type commonality
- What are projected staffing levels like at KLM cityhopper for pilots on F70s ?
- Is there a particular need for 80 seat aircraft elsewhere in the KLM network ?
- From looking at postcodes of customers flying to/from DTV and NCL, how is consumer demand shifting between DTV and NCL ? If DTV were to be closed, how many customers would be significantly inconvenienced ?
- Are there are impediments to adding capacity to NCL, either as more aircraft or as larger aircraft ?
- What are the contract terms between Peel and KLM ? When are they next up for renegotiation ?
- Are Peel making life difficult for KLM and KLM's passengers in any way ?
- Do KLM want to go from triple daily to double daily, as they do at Manston ?
- What are KLM's fleet plans for the F70 ?
- How reliable are the F70s ?
- What's slot availability at Amsterdam like at the relevant times for a DTV route ?
- What's the breakeven revenue / load factor+yield of running a F70 ?
- How much equity capital is being used to keep the DTV route, and what return are KLM seeing on this equity ?
- Is there demand for F70s from other airlines ? These are old aircraft, Fokker have gone bust, so there are no new aircraft being made with type commonality
- What are projected staffing levels like at KLM cityhopper for pilots on F70s ?
- Is there a particular need for 80 seat aircraft elsewhere in the KLM network ?
- From looking at postcodes of customers flying to/from DTV and NCL, how is consumer demand shifting between DTV and NCL ? If DTV were to be closed, how many customers would be significantly inconvenienced ?
- Are there are impediments to adding capacity to NCL, either as more aircraft or as larger aircraft ?
- What are the contract terms between Peel and KLM ? When are they next up for renegotiation ?
- Are Peel making life difficult for KLM and KLM's passengers in any way ?
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The other factors are indeed relevant.
For me though the most relevant is do KLM have a contract with MME until a set point in time and when is this? If the answer is no, then KLM will leave when they can yield a better return from these aircraft elsewhere. What is worrying is that with such an obvious and clear decline, the number of alternative uses will increase each and every month.
On the future of the F70, we know they're not the most reliable and 7 will leave the fleet shortly. The remaining 19 will stay for a handful of more years until they decide on a replacement.
Sadly, if the current trends continue, we won't be around to worry about whether MME can sustain E190 operations or not.
Bigger aircraft at NCL with the odd extra frequency may not be a bad idea....
For me though the most relevant is do KLM have a contract with MME until a set point in time and when is this? If the answer is no, then KLM will leave when they can yield a better return from these aircraft elsewhere. What is worrying is that with such an obvious and clear decline, the number of alternative uses will increase each and every month.
On the future of the F70, we know they're not the most reliable and 7 will leave the fleet shortly. The remaining 19 will stay for a handful of more years until they decide on a replacement.
Sadly, if the current trends continue, we won't be around to worry about whether MME can sustain E190 operations or not.
Bigger aircraft at NCL with the odd extra frequency may not be a bad idea....
One factor to consider on KLM is that in the 12 months referred to EZY have joined NCL-AMS, so it's likely that its the low end of the market which has shifted to NCL - probably not hugely significant to KLM.
KLM clearly has a good base of business users who prefer MME to NCL, and until these desert the route it looks safe - subject to the wider issues mentioned below.
KLM clearly has a good base of business users who prefer MME to NCL, and until these desert the route it looks safe - subject to the wider issues mentioned below.