NEWCASTLE - 8
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highwideandugly wrote:
Where should Newcastle be in terms of Passenger volumes, if growth had been in line with the national average, given your statement on previous post.
I know NCL is still well below the 2007 passenger volumes of nearly 6 million, despite gaining Emirates, United and LCCs.
Guess losses have been daily Braathens to SVG,OSL & BGO, Reduced charters, Used to have more than 1 operator to Orlando, Transat to Toronto, TCX to Goa (India).
Still, with the additions I'm surprised NCL has not restored volumes back to pre recession levels, if not surpassed and grown much further given Emirates etc...
As the airport has way below national airport passenger growth at the moment and has been for a few years
I know NCL is still well below the 2007 passenger volumes of nearly 6 million, despite gaining Emirates, United and LCCs.
Guess losses have been daily Braathens to SVG,OSL & BGO, Reduced charters, Used to have more than 1 operator to Orlando, Transat to Toronto, TCX to Goa (India).
Still, with the additions I'm surprised NCL has not restored volumes back to pre recession levels, if not surpassed and grown much further given Emirates etc...
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Growth
For NCL's lack of growth, I'd suggest the following can account for most of the problem: Reduction of the easyJet based fleet. That has meant that routes like CDG,AMS and CPH which should each have been generating >50k passengers annually are absent. Then no LGW - that's 100k plus, and BRS being strangled by a poor schedule.
TUI and TC switching flying from three rotations per day e.g PMI, REU + IBZ to two rotation programmes e.g HER + TFS as the LCC's took their Western Med routes.
It's the 'bread and butter' services that have cost us. Forget United, that's just a dot on the map -'no bigger than SOU in passenger terms. Transat to YYZ was a loss of prestige only.
Why have BRS, EDI and now GLA grown faster. Simple - get a Ryanair base.
TUI and TC switching flying from three rotations per day e.g PMI, REU + IBZ to two rotation programmes e.g HER + TFS as the LCC's took their Western Med routes.
It's the 'bread and butter' services that have cost us. Forget United, that's just a dot on the map -'no bigger than SOU in passenger terms. Transat to YYZ was a loss of prestige only.
Why have BRS, EDI and now GLA grown faster. Simple - get a Ryanair base.
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I guess we should be grateful for the routes we have now to EWR & DXB. As well as other destinations that we didn't serve previously.
I recall years ago in the summer months we had operations not just from TOM & TCX. But also Excel Airways, Air Scandic, Flyjet etc. (Albeit at different times) Then we also had far more operators coming in from overseas, such as Onur Air (didn't they send the A300 every Sunday for a season?) Freebird, Pegasus, Spanair, Iberworld, Air Europa, Eurocypria, Helios, South Atlantic Airways at one point? Islandflug, MD Airlines, Volar/LTE, Monarch (weekly charters to SFB/POP/CUN at one point). Probably missed lots of others off too. I know many of them are no longer around.
I guess much of the work has been taken up by other carriers expanding, Jet2 increasing its size at NCL. It's a shame that we haven't had much in terms of expansion from our legacy based carriers. But we can hope for the future.
I recall years ago in the summer months we had operations not just from TOM & TCX. But also Excel Airways, Air Scandic, Flyjet etc. (Albeit at different times) Then we also had far more operators coming in from overseas, such as Onur Air (didn't they send the A300 every Sunday for a season?) Freebird, Pegasus, Spanair, Iberworld, Air Europa, Eurocypria, Helios, South Atlantic Airways at one point? Islandflug, MD Airlines, Volar/LTE, Monarch (weekly charters to SFB/POP/CUN at one point). Probably missed lots of others off too. I know many of them are no longer around.
I guess much of the work has been taken up by other carriers expanding, Jet2 increasing its size at NCL. It's a shame that we haven't had much in terms of expansion from our legacy based carriers. But we can hope for the future.
Cargo at NCL
Its not looking to good on the cargo front for Newcastle. DHL who are based next to EK skycargo have just shut up shop due to it being cheaper to run from Leeds. They dealt with all business' freight from Leeds upwards and every night that went over to Emirates for the next days flight. Not the best news and will definitely effect loads.
Why have BRS, EDI and now GLA grown faster. Simple - get a Ryanair base.
Look at how the EZY bases at NCL and BRS have developed.
especially the potential for freight on their doorstep?
Apologies to Toon22 for only picking up on his Ryanair base point - the rest of his post is spot on.
A couple of other points for the stagnation in pax numbers - the replacement of 757's by 738/321's - same number of units, fewer seats, and as well as the loss of LGW, the significant reduction in STN.
The foreign charter carriers might be colourful, but they don't deliver much in terms of volume.
On the plus side - EK, UA, EIR, BA, AF, SN, KL, LH, SK ain't a bad rollcall.
A couple of other points for the stagnation in pax numbers - the replacement of 757's by 738/321's - same number of units, fewer seats, and as well as the loss of LGW, the significant reduction in STN.
The foreign charter carriers might be colourful, but they don't deliver much in terms of volume.
On the plus side - EK, UA, EIR, BA, AF, SN, KL, LH, SK ain't a bad rollcall.
growth..
Toon22 spot on...my discussion point is why?? All other major airport players in the top 15(say) are growing at a much faster rate?
I appreciate the population/wealth spread..however as a small example..t the majority of friends I have don't fly from DTV or Newcastle but other adjacent airports..again Why!??
Something is fundamentally wrong?
Freight,ancillary and pleasure/leisure is another problem I don't know the answer to.
SWBKCB..Brs and Ncl easy jet bases growing..don't think you are right with the Newcastle bit?
Freight not growing? Yes it is thanks to EK. My discussion point was with dedicated freighters.
Most of the airlines mentioned in the other posts which don't operate now have been taken over by UK airlines as a niche developed?
I appreciate the population/wealth spread..however as a small example..t the majority of friends I have don't fly from DTV or Newcastle but other adjacent airports..again Why!??
Something is fundamentally wrong?
Freight,ancillary and pleasure/leisure is another problem I don't know the answer to.
SWBKCB..Brs and Ncl easy jet bases growing..don't think you are right with the Newcastle bit?
Freight not growing? Yes it is thanks to EK. My discussion point was with dedicated freighters.
Most of the airlines mentioned in the other posts which don't operate now have been taken over by UK airlines as a niche developed?
My point about EZY was that the NCL and BRS bases were at one point very similar in size and types of routes but have gone in different directions - BRS has expanded considerably and NCL has contracted and focused on sun routes. Why? look at the relative economic indicators of the two regions - it's as simple as that. Fewer people with the disposable income to spend on air travel and then the laws of supply and demand kick.
The North East is a small, relatively poor market. NCL does well in the circumstances, particularly in connecting the region to the hubs and the rest of the world.
Most of the foreign carriers have gone as the based carriers have expanded - e.g. Thomas Cook would have been at one time two TCX with some foreign operators and is now two TCX and a smaller leased in a/c. Look at the TOM Verona over the last couple of years - used to be TOM a/c but another use is found for that and so it's been operated from the other end instead. They might come back as the based airlines expand and find themselves needing more flights but not enough to justify another based unit
The North East is a small, relatively poor market. NCL does well in the circumstances, particularly in connecting the region to the hubs and the rest of the world.
Most of the foreign carriers have gone as the based carriers have expanded - e.g. Thomas Cook would have been at one time two TCX with some foreign operators and is now two TCX and a smaller leased in a/c. Look at the TOM Verona over the last couple of years - used to be TOM a/c but another use is found for that and so it's been operated from the other end instead. They might come back as the based airlines expand and find themselves needing more flights but not enough to justify another based unit
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Passenger figures
Some interesting points being made.
Big difference between BRS & NCL is the growth in the LCC market.
Both FR and EZY but I think EZY have been grown because of FR there and also bigger area that BRS covers
However do BRS have as many HUB airlines like we do?
BA, KLM, AF, LH, SN , UA and EK??
Could explain a part of it.
The other problem is NCL used to be one of the best places for the smaller tour operators which have been bought or bust
Golden sun
Kosmar
Libra holidays
These had based aircraft at ncl 3 units I believe at one stage
Then the others got hold of them or merged
Airtours and Thomas cook (JMC) became TCX and we lost aircraft
Thomson and first choice become TUI again lost aircraft
I just think the choice of routes to sun and city break places needs to improve and I'm sure Ryanair may kick start this off
Winter 2016/7
Alicante and Malaga still not on sale after October
Reasons???? Become a based aircraft route???
March 1st (Tuesday press conference at BFS )
Rumours of them starting this route
Also hoping that they start the following also
FARO
Hamburg
Lisbon
Bilbao
P.s
Flew easyjet Monday and arrived back today from Alicante
Both flights were full odd seats spare so no wonder Ryanair have moved in on the route. If easyjet are willing to grow ncl another airline will try and I bet they make the money on the routes too
Big difference between BRS & NCL is the growth in the LCC market.
Both FR and EZY but I think EZY have been grown because of FR there and also bigger area that BRS covers
However do BRS have as many HUB airlines like we do?
BA, KLM, AF, LH, SN , UA and EK??
Could explain a part of it.
The other problem is NCL used to be one of the best places for the smaller tour operators which have been bought or bust
Golden sun
Kosmar
Libra holidays
These had based aircraft at ncl 3 units I believe at one stage
Then the others got hold of them or merged
Airtours and Thomas cook (JMC) became TCX and we lost aircraft
Thomson and first choice become TUI again lost aircraft
I just think the choice of routes to sun and city break places needs to improve and I'm sure Ryanair may kick start this off
Winter 2016/7
Alicante and Malaga still not on sale after October
Reasons???? Become a based aircraft route???
March 1st (Tuesday press conference at BFS )
Rumours of them starting this route
Also hoping that they start the following also
FARO
Hamburg
Lisbon
Bilbao
P.s
Flew easyjet Monday and arrived back today from Alicante
Both flights were full odd seats spare so no wonder Ryanair have moved in on the route. If easyjet are willing to grow ncl another airline will try and I bet they make the money on the routes too
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Charter Flights
Think part of the downturn in numbers is more to do with the Tour Companies than the airport. Few years back you would have Thomson, First Choice, Sunworld, Sunset, Airtours, Aspro, Cosmos etc to name a few, others I can't remember, all fighting each other for business and trying to fill seats so plenty of late deals around. Now only 2 main ops TUI and T. Cook. Fewer flights, fewer options, less choice, not as many deals so prices stay quite high which the tour companies want. TCX had 4 x 757 based at one time and nearly went bust. Drop capacity but sell at higher cost or as a previous post states it's down to supply and demand. With the problems in Turkey and Egypt and flights getting cancelled would not expect them to go else where until other flights are filled up.
Brunel to Concorde
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However do BRS have as many HUB airlines like we do?
BA, KLM, AF, LH, SN , UA and EK??
Could explain a part of it.
BA, KLM, AF, LH, SN , UA and EK??
Could explain a part of it.
AF pulled out of their CDG route a few years ago and Continental ceased Newark in 2010 after five and a half years.
BRS is too close to LHR for an air route to be viable, hence no BA.
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Passenger Nos at NCL
I believe one of the reasons for lack of growth at NCL is the huge increase in flights available from EDI.
Once upon a time when EDI was a BAA airport flights were quite limited. They seemed reluctant to allow LCC in. For this reason passengers in Scotland and the borders would use NCL as it had a greater choice than EDI at that time especially the charters.
However I dont think there are many destinations available from NCL now that are not available from EDI. Of course there are also many more destinations available now from EDI than from NCL.
Look at the Easyjet and Jet 2 expansion up there. I think there would have been much more expansion at NCL if BAA still owned EDI. However they dont and the situation will only get worse if APD is reduced over the border.
Once upon a time when EDI was a BAA airport flights were quite limited. They seemed reluctant to allow LCC in. For this reason passengers in Scotland and the borders would use NCL as it had a greater choice than EDI at that time especially the charters.
However I dont think there are many destinations available from NCL now that are not available from EDI. Of course there are also many more destinations available now from EDI than from NCL.
Look at the Easyjet and Jet 2 expansion up there. I think there would have been much more expansion at NCL if BAA still owned EDI. However they dont and the situation will only get worse if APD is reduced over the border.
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Point being made on original post was that Newcastle were achieving nearly 6 million passengers in 2006/7. Other airports seem to have recovered to at least these pre recession volumes. Newcastle have had the advantage of Emirates and Jet2 since then bringing extra volumes yet NCL still lag behind in terms of growth, even though there has been some population growth.
Is there much migration of passengers traveling from EDI, LBA & MAN? - I know of a number of people who book LS from LBA due to much cheaper fares. I have family members flying out to Orlando in October from Manchester on Virgin due to Travel Agent recommendation & price/availability. Edinburgh pricing on some schedules are much cheaper than NCL (example Eurowings to DUS less than half price v NCL in April)
Are exact figures of passengers from the region who fly from other airports outside the region available or known?
Newcastle may be charging airlines higher rates, and discouraging a heavy imbalance of LCC (especially FR) to Full Service and Charter Tour companies to maintain greater margin for a more profitable airport business.- Just a thought! - I remember reading some while back Newcastle had expected to grow to 9-10 million by 2018
Is there much migration of passengers traveling from EDI, LBA & MAN? - I know of a number of people who book LS from LBA due to much cheaper fares. I have family members flying out to Orlando in October from Manchester on Virgin due to Travel Agent recommendation & price/availability. Edinburgh pricing on some schedules are much cheaper than NCL (example Eurowings to DUS less than half price v NCL in April)
Are exact figures of passengers from the region who fly from other airports outside the region available or known?
Newcastle may be charging airlines higher rates, and discouraging a heavy imbalance of LCC (especially FR) to Full Service and Charter Tour companies to maintain greater margin for a more profitable airport business.- Just a thought! - I remember reading some while back Newcastle had expected to grow to 9-10 million by 2018
Are the folk of Bristol better off than the folk of Newcastle and the surrounding area. In every category except number of Premier League footballers... 
Ah yes, but they will be playing against each other next season
Ah yes, but they will be playing against each other next season
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJRQ...ature=youtu.be
Aforementioned C17 takeoff video, probably one of the longest runs I've seen from NCL
I'm quietly hoping FR do open up an NCL base at some point soon, and I hope it pushes EZY to do something because I'm sure they will lose ground to FR if they don't react quickly. i.e if FR go up against them on PMI, FAO, TFS etc. jumping in on MXP before Ryanair do the same - BGY worked before so I'm sure it would work again.
FR, BFS-NCL might make EZY lose a couple of thousand passengers and hopefully make them think "sh*t, they could do the same with BRS" and maybe introduce a real schedule, still yet to think of someone who ONLY wants morning flights on Monday and Saturday. Why they can't just do even x13 weekly is completely beyond me, especially when they're filling up with the crap times! I reckon we'll lose BE to BHD though, although that's been on it's last legs for months
I'm hoping there's interesting times ahead for NCL, our share of UK growth must be on it's way, somewhere, I don't know where MAN/GLA/EDI etc. are all getting it from
Aforementioned C17 takeoff video, probably one of the longest runs I've seen from NCL
I'm quietly hoping FR do open up an NCL base at some point soon, and I hope it pushes EZY to do something because I'm sure they will lose ground to FR if they don't react quickly. i.e if FR go up against them on PMI, FAO, TFS etc. jumping in on MXP before Ryanair do the same - BGY worked before so I'm sure it would work again.
FR, BFS-NCL might make EZY lose a couple of thousand passengers and hopefully make them think "sh*t, they could do the same with BRS" and maybe introduce a real schedule, still yet to think of someone who ONLY wants morning flights on Monday and Saturday. Why they can't just do even x13 weekly is completely beyond me, especially when they're filling up with the crap times! I reckon we'll lose BE to BHD though, although that's been on it's last legs for months
I'm hoping there's interesting times ahead for NCL, our share of UK growth must be on it's way, somewhere, I don't know where MAN/GLA/EDI etc. are all getting it from
BGY worked before so I'm sure it would work again
Re BRS - already a RYR base at BRS, so they could be on it now?