NEWCASTLE - 8
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I was under the impression NCL-BGY was swapped out for MAN-BGY, from the little I remember loads were good, and NCL-MXP is likely to be a lot more attractive, at least it actually lands in Milan at the other end
If FR do well on BFS-NCL as well as DUB-NCL, I'm sure BRS-NCL would at least be a passing consideration, especially if they can out-schedule EZY
If FR do well on BFS-NCL as well as DUB-NCL, I'm sure BRS-NCL would at least be a passing consideration, especially if they can out-schedule EZY
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In the absence of published yield data I guess load factor is the only data that people can use to support their points on here. Unless of course other posters want to share their better knowledge of ex-UK airline yields.
Whist yield is the key measure, LCCs do not fly half empty planes so IMO load factor has its place on this forum.
Whist yield is the key measure, LCCs do not fly half empty planes so IMO load factor has its place on this forum.
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"My Opinion" - I believe EDI & MAN are benefiting from lower fares, and as a result migrating passengers from Newcastle's capture area. Travel agents are not promoting NCL, especially for long haul, promoting departures to Orlando, rest of USA and East from Manchester.
I don't think Newcastle Airport Management have encouraged Ultra LCC's due to perceived threat to full service carriers and resulting drop in profit margins to the Airport. Until they have maximized full potential from higher paying carriers, will they take a risk and incentivise more Low cost carrier routes. (Just look what FR do when they don't get their own way, and feel they have the airport "over a barrel")
However, I feel Travel Agents should be heavily incentivised to promote NCL, matching those incentive payments from EDI & MAN especially. This may seem expensive, but can be most effective in the long run, despite low early returns to justify in the short term.
Surprised FRA and ZRH are not offered from LH and SWR (or Helvetica) by now. Berlin is much more popular now, since the days of EZY to SXF.
OSL, SVG, & BGO would also work as low cost volume route. - It/They was/were successful with Braathens on a daily basis at higher fare rates than today's typical LCCs - Maybe Norwegian?! (Wilderoe on SVG were just far too expensive)
I don't think Newcastle Airport Management have encouraged Ultra LCC's due to perceived threat to full service carriers and resulting drop in profit margins to the Airport. Until they have maximized full potential from higher paying carriers, will they take a risk and incentivise more Low cost carrier routes. (Just look what FR do when they don't get their own way, and feel they have the airport "over a barrel")
However, I feel Travel Agents should be heavily incentivised to promote NCL, matching those incentive payments from EDI & MAN especially. This may seem expensive, but can be most effective in the long run, despite low early returns to justify in the short term.
Surprised FRA and ZRH are not offered from LH and SWR (or Helvetica) by now. Berlin is much more popular now, since the days of EZY to SXF.
OSL, SVG, & BGO would also work as low cost volume route. - It/They was/were successful with Braathens on a daily basis at higher fare rates than today's typical LCCs - Maybe Norwegian?! (Wilderoe on SVG were just far too expensive)
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Load factor means a lot more for LCC's than full service
50% for an LCC will probably never make them a profit especially on longer routes but for full service on a premium heavy route, 50% might cover them quite nicely
I've done a little digging and Ryanair operated NCL-BGY until March 2008? Don't know when they started though, but in 2005 they carried 76,091 (correct to assume this is March-December?), 2006 was a disappointing 49,870 and 2007 (again, not full year) 38,580, did flight times change? I did see complaints on tripadvisor that the BGY arrival was 00:15... Not amazing I'm sure you'll agree.
Also, what routes have we lost? Routes like Luxor, Thessaloniki, Goa? Punta Cana? Banjul? Talk of TOM operating to Taba and did EZY fly NCL-ATH? Why haven't these routs ever made a comeback (discount Egypt for the time being, ditto Banjul due to ebola scares) Others like Berlin, Budapest, Milan, Toulouse etc. I mean 9,982 pax to Thessaloniki in summer 2007, x1 weekly 757 doesn't exactly look dire. Neither does 80,000 pax to Berlin (2005) and 75,000 to Budapest (2005)
Another thing I wanted to pick up on is that Wizzair carried 18080 pax MME-WAW between July-December 2007 and 21,579 between January-September 2008... 14 months, 39659 pax. A very crude calculation, x3 weekly (x12 monthly) flights over 14 months gives about 65.6% load factor, on a route that was never given a chance to mature, surely they can do something from Newcastle...
50% for an LCC will probably never make them a profit especially on longer routes but for full service on a premium heavy route, 50% might cover them quite nicely
I've done a little digging and Ryanair operated NCL-BGY until March 2008? Don't know when they started though, but in 2005 they carried 76,091 (correct to assume this is March-December?), 2006 was a disappointing 49,870 and 2007 (again, not full year) 38,580, did flight times change? I did see complaints on tripadvisor that the BGY arrival was 00:15... Not amazing I'm sure you'll agree.
Also, what routes have we lost? Routes like Luxor, Thessaloniki, Goa? Punta Cana? Banjul? Talk of TOM operating to Taba and did EZY fly NCL-ATH? Why haven't these routs ever made a comeback (discount Egypt for the time being, ditto Banjul due to ebola scares) Others like Berlin, Budapest, Milan, Toulouse etc. I mean 9,982 pax to Thessaloniki in summer 2007, x1 weekly 757 doesn't exactly look dire. Neither does 80,000 pax to Berlin (2005) and 75,000 to Budapest (2005)
Another thing I wanted to pick up on is that Wizzair carried 18080 pax MME-WAW between July-December 2007 and 21,579 between January-September 2008... 14 months, 39659 pax. A very crude calculation, x3 weekly (x12 monthly) flights over 14 months gives about 65.6% load factor, on a route that was never given a chance to mature, surely they can do something from Newcastle...
Michael O'Leary visited Newcastle on 25/11/2004 to launch the Bergamo route. A couple of quotes are still relevant:
Wild guess - possibly because they weren't profitable and smart airlines don't throw good money after bad?
Mr O'Leary said he wants to introduce a second flight on the Bergamo route as soon as possible, and also revealed that the firm is looking at launching more flights from Newcastle to Stockholm or Barcelona, despite easyJet already running this route. Mr O'Leary said: "This new destination at Newcastle is a way of testing how big we think Newcastle can be. It is a way of testing the water to see if Newcastle works as a business for us. Let's get three or four routes in there first and take it from there."
"Newcastle would have to keep beating off competition from 100 other European airports for routes and Newcastle is not the only source of our growth."
Why haven't these routs ever made a comeback
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It may not be that they 'were not profitable' , the more likely scenario is something elsewhere was more profitable.
Id forget Taba, Banjul, Athens and Goa however. Very few are launching 4hr+ low cost/charters from smaller regionals.
Id forget Taba, Banjul, Athens and Goa however. Very few are launching 4hr+ low cost/charters from smaller regionals.
It may not be that they 'were not profitable' , the more likely scenario is something elsewhere was more profitable.
Lets just call them "marginal" 
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Hi
I think with the routes that we have lost Milan, Berlin, Budapest etc were all the same reason. The airline either Easyjet or Ryanair changed the flight times to late evening so i believe that was the main reason for the drop in numbers.
Newcastle agree will have to bid for these new routes. Problem i see is that the airport wont waver airport charges or discount just to get a route with ryanair as they dont want to be seen as someone who can be later held to ranson if ryanair want more discount.
Perfect for ryanair if they can do the same as ALC and AGP with the times. there is plenty of room for ryanair to pitch up with 10+ aircraft in the summer months between 10-3pm to a whole range of city and sun places.
warsaw from DTV good point im surprised they didnt just move up the road to us as you have stated the route got used so why not try to keep those pax and move the flight up the road maybe airport charges again???
Remember we dont want major growth then nothing.
steady growth year on year would be perfect.
lets see what happens this week.
has easyjet put winter flights on sale yet from ncl??
maybe ryanair holding off to see how easyjet plan ncl for winter 2016.
ive heard that LTN-CPH route isnt on sale by either of them yet as both of them increased it to around 4 flights each per day
could be a factor for BFS
I think with the routes that we have lost Milan, Berlin, Budapest etc were all the same reason. The airline either Easyjet or Ryanair changed the flight times to late evening so i believe that was the main reason for the drop in numbers.
Newcastle agree will have to bid for these new routes. Problem i see is that the airport wont waver airport charges or discount just to get a route with ryanair as they dont want to be seen as someone who can be later held to ranson if ryanair want more discount.
Perfect for ryanair if they can do the same as ALC and AGP with the times. there is plenty of room for ryanair to pitch up with 10+ aircraft in the summer months between 10-3pm to a whole range of city and sun places.
warsaw from DTV good point im surprised they didnt just move up the road to us as you have stated the route got used so why not try to keep those pax and move the flight up the road maybe airport charges again???
Remember we dont want major growth then nothing.
steady growth year on year would be perfect.
lets see what happens this week.
has easyjet put winter flights on sale yet from ncl??
maybe ryanair holding off to see how easyjet plan ncl for winter 2016.
ive heard that LTN-CPH route isnt on sale by either of them yet as both of them increased it to around 4 flights each per day
could be a factor for BFS
I think with the routes that we have lost Milan, Berlin, Budapest etc were all the same reason. The airline either Easyjet or Ryanair changed the flight times to late evening so i believe that was the main reason for the drop in numbers.
Believe me, if these routes had performed they would have been jumping in with both boots - EZY and RYR have chopped and changed enough routes from NCL over the years that I would imagine they have a pretty good idea what works from NCL and what doesn't. 
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Again. Let's be careful what we wish for. NCL-BFS is not the same as LTN-CPH. There will be no long term dual fight like LTNCPH.
For a season it'll be great, lots of flights, lots of cheap seats. Eventually U2 will likely cut the frequencies or withdraw completely along with BE. When FR realise that 189 is too much to be sending 3/4 times a day accross to NCL it will be reduced or cut. Net gain for NCL long term? Zero? Something little above zero?
There's nothing to stop BE operating day returns to BFS each and every day or BMIr doing the same to BRS. Or even FR from BRS. In a free and open market, none of them have chosen to do so. Let's face it, LS are not short of planes sat doing diddly squat all day in the winter, they could also choose to do some domestics or Ireland routes. They don't. That says a lot to me.
A base may be great. HHN looked to be a huge success story, up to 10 craft, 20 planned, now down to 5.
Then let's look at our friends in Lappeenranta. A bright future ahead, big plans, FR were going to do all sorts. Now? Not even a single schedule passenger flight goes there.
Just next door, Tampere. Again, a bright future ahead of it. A new €3,000,000 terminal opened and FR withdrew all services. A few token services return this summer.
It'll look great than they can come in to NCL, open a base, announce thousands of new 'jobs' then miraculously not make a single person redundant when they do eventually shut or downsize the base.
FR will bring lower prices and greater choice for the short term. Then when U2/BE/TCX/LS shut or downsize their bases, and you're left with just FR or no FR, where will you be then?
Good luck for your FR base when/if it comes to the toon. I've a feeling you're going to need it.
For a season it'll be great, lots of flights, lots of cheap seats. Eventually U2 will likely cut the frequencies or withdraw completely along with BE. When FR realise that 189 is too much to be sending 3/4 times a day accross to NCL it will be reduced or cut. Net gain for NCL long term? Zero? Something little above zero?
There's nothing to stop BE operating day returns to BFS each and every day or BMIr doing the same to BRS. Or even FR from BRS. In a free and open market, none of them have chosen to do so. Let's face it, LS are not short of planes sat doing diddly squat all day in the winter, they could also choose to do some domestics or Ireland routes. They don't. That says a lot to me.
A base may be great. HHN looked to be a huge success story, up to 10 craft, 20 planned, now down to 5.
Then let's look at our friends in Lappeenranta. A bright future ahead, big plans, FR were going to do all sorts. Now? Not even a single schedule passenger flight goes there.
Just next door, Tampere. Again, a bright future ahead of it. A new €3,000,000 terminal opened and FR withdrew all services. A few token services return this summer.
It'll look great than they can come in to NCL, open a base, announce thousands of new 'jobs' then miraculously not make a single person redundant when they do eventually shut or downsize the base.
FR will bring lower prices and greater choice for the short term. Then when U2/BE/TCX/LS shut or downsize their bases, and you're left with just FR or no FR, where will you be then?
Good luck for your FR base when/if it comes to the toon. I've a feeling you're going to need it.
Last edited by HeartyMeatballs; 28th Feb 2016 at 10:03.
Agreed - NCL-BFS isn't a cash cow for EZY (just look at the prices) it's just a nice v. short route to fill up the schedule.
and those they did do, they've dropped.
Let's face it, LS are not short of planes sat doing diddly squat all day in the winter, they could also choose to do some domestics or Ireland routes. They don't. That says a lot to me.
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I just don't think LS have the right cost base or flexibility to routes like that, all their domestics have slowly dwindled and apart from LBA-DUS, LBA-AMS and their spattering of Paris flights (massive tourist destination - pretty hard not to fill!) all their short haul has gone
Shame to see how EZY has fallen at NCL though. KRK and PRG are prime examples of how LS and EZY's business models and "ability" differ
Shame to see how EZY has fallen at NCL though. KRK and PRG are prime examples of how LS and EZY's business models and "ability" differ
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I reckon TFS, ACE, FAO, PMI will come along alongside (hopefully) new routes like HAM, maybe BGY or wherever else they might think of, Oslo worth another shot?
Could they try something a bit more exotic, Sicily, Morocco, Athens? I'm sure that might p*ss easyjet off if they took away most viable monopoly routes
Could they try something a bit more exotic, Sicily, Morocco, Athens? I'm sure that might p*ss easyjet off if they took away most viable monopoly routes
I reckon TFS, ACE, FAO, PMI will come along alongside (hopefully) new routes like HAM, maybe BGY or wherever else they might think of, Oslo worth another shot?
Could they try something a bit more exotic, Sicily, Morocco, Athens? I'm sure that might p*ss easyjet off if they took away most viable monopoly routes
Could they try something a bit more exotic, Sicily, Morocco, Athens? I'm sure that might p*ss easyjet off if they took away most viable monopoly routes