Aer Lingus - 5
Join Date: May 2010
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Aer Lingus Retro
Join Date: Aug 2010
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Looks fab! Is it just going to be one aircraft with one retro livery?
I'm sure I heard about a number of aircraft in all types of historical/retro liveries? Hope it's true!
I'm sure I heard about a number of aircraft in all types of historical/retro liveries? Hope it's true!
Join Date: Feb 2009
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New long haul routes
I think the failure of Dubai and the success of Etihad has scuppered routes to the east for a long time to come. The A330 is probably too big for some possible US routes - look what the US majors have done with the aging B757's over the Atlantic. West coast is too far for B757 of course. I believe a smaller plane would have worked on Dulles/Baltimore. There are not that many other east coast possibilities left with US Air, Delta, Continental, American and, over the summer Air Canada/Air Transat well established. It seems to me therefore that its NYC, Boston, Chicago where the VFR possibilities are good plus Orlando for Disney for the medium term at least.
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US West Coast Route
With the disposal of an A330-300 currently being sought, there will not be much ''slack'' in the fleet for the coming summer period and with an A332 based ex IAD/MAD - it's hard to see a West Coast route returning.
At the same time, there are currently efforts underway amongst the business community in the greater SFO region to have a direct route to Ireland re-instated.
Enda Corneille previously stated (2009) that fuel hedging aside, once oil peaked above US$80 - it undermined a West Coast route. One has to assume however that this was purely looking at the scenario from a pax load factor/yield perspective with minimal cargo volumes - as robust cargo volumes, which were often present on the SFO route, would offset increased oil prices to an extent.
A twice weekly US West Coast schedule might work in the current environment - the problem with that being that costs associated with the outstation might not be serviced sufficiently - requiring a frequency of three flights per week.
From all of the soundings from C Mueller - it seems very likely that the T/A network, as operated by Aer Lingus aircraft specifically, will remain constant as of the current position for some time at least.
EI Premier
At the same time, there are currently efforts underway amongst the business community in the greater SFO region to have a direct route to Ireland re-instated.
Enda Corneille previously stated (2009) that fuel hedging aside, once oil peaked above US$80 - it undermined a West Coast route. One has to assume however that this was purely looking at the scenario from a pax load factor/yield perspective with minimal cargo volumes - as robust cargo volumes, which were often present on the SFO route, would offset increased oil prices to an extent.
A twice weekly US West Coast schedule might work in the current environment - the problem with that being that costs associated with the outstation might not be serviced sufficiently - requiring a frequency of three flights per week.
From all of the soundings from C Mueller - it seems very likely that the T/A network, as operated by Aer Lingus aircraft specifically, will remain constant as of the current position for some time at least.
EI Premier
Join Date: Jan 2000
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Couple of questions there for the well informed:
What were the loads like on the DUB-LAX and DUB-SFO were they were running?
What was cargo like?
If the route is uneconomical to run at current oil prices or impending oil prices, how do all the other carriers go from the UK and Europe?
What were the loads like on the DUB-LAX and DUB-SFO were they were running?
What was cargo like?
If the route is uneconomical to run at current oil prices or impending oil prices, how do all the other carriers go from the UK and Europe?
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Fact is there is only a small population in Ireland to start with. When you cut to the chase many punters will happily fly into a hub like LHR or ATL in order to save a few quid on their ticket prices regardless of the hassle they will endure rather than go direct with AL. Many other potential fliers are put off by the flight duration.
The UK carriers have a much larger population base to rely on in the first place. This larger population will give them more people willing to pay business or first prices which is where the airline will generate most of its profits on the route.
The UK carriers have a much larger population base to rely on in the first place. This larger population will give them more people willing to pay business or first prices which is where the airline will generate most of its profits on the route.
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I get the population idea. In fact when anything is suggested in this county, not just flying we generally get the 'ah Ireland is such a small country' from our bigger cousins. Having gone TA a lot in the last couple of years, I hate having to connect from JFK. Also I have taken the DUB-LAX a few times and it wasnt that bad in the end!
So I suppose because I am Irish I have a biased opinion, but I would rather stick a rusty nail through my
than fly through Heathrow.
My question remains, what were the load factors like on the LAX/SFO routes in the past and what was cargo like?
There is 4 flights a day serving LHR from SFO. Thats a lot of choice for the UK market. Are you telling me that EI couldnt make it work on a mixed SFO/LAX ???
So I suppose because I am Irish I have a biased opinion, but I would rather stick a rusty nail through my
than fly through Heathrow. My question remains, what were the load factors like on the LAX/SFO routes in the past and what was cargo like?
There is 4 flights a day serving LHR from SFO. Thats a lot of choice for the UK market. Are you telling me that EI couldnt make it work on a mixed SFO/LAX ???
Dub - Lax
Can someone confim or deny the suggestion that the 332's heading to LAX were close to their max operational range on 'average pax loads' given the MTOW from DUB's 28 and as such, increasing the cargo carraige wasn't really an option.
JAS
JAS
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Consider that London has a population alone in the region of 12 million, or so. An incredibly wealthy city, with huge premium demand. Plus the rest of the UK (via air, or rail, or motorway) plus BA's European, Middle East and (Indian)Asian network to allow connections to/from. Only 4 flights a day seems not very many!
DUB is a city of 1m + 3 million more (in good times) for the rest of the country. It is a very low-yield, price sensitive market with poor Business Class demand. There are very few connection opportunities ex DUB. Although cargo demand ex Ireland is probably increasing and USCBP are factors in favor of the service, it is still against a backdrop of very weak travel demand.
DUB is a city of 1m + 3 million more (in good times) for the rest of the country. It is a very low-yield, price sensitive market with poor Business Class demand. There are very few connection opportunities ex DUB. Although cargo demand ex Ireland is probably increasing and USCBP are factors in favor of the service, it is still against a backdrop of very weak travel demand.
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DUB is a city of 1m + 3 million more (in good times) for the rest of the country.
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Fair point. I wasn't aware that quite so many people live in the north. I had imagined that with the shrinkage of the population in the South it might be ~ 4 million for the whole island, probably closer to 6, from what I can see on-line.
You do make a good point though. The APD situation out of UK airports also makes DUB a lot more attractive. It's a fair old whack now, I think. Something like £30 per long haul journey, rising significantly for Business/First.
You do make a good point though. The APD situation out of UK airports also makes DUB a lot more attractive. It's a fair old whack now, I think. Something like £30 per long haul journey, rising significantly for Business/First.
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Just to let you have some info on the population, the republic will probably be just above 4.5 million come the end of the year, whilst NI has just become 1.8 million giving a grand total in the region of 6.3 million.
Also although the recession has reversed migration, natural increase has ensured the population of the republic has had continued growth through the fiscal downturn.(Albeit at a slower rate.)
I now live in London myself, and have flights booked with BA to New York during the Royal Wedding weekend (had to take advantage of the extra bank holidays
) but would have loved to try the pre-clearance at Dublin!
Also although the recession has reversed migration, natural increase has ensured the population of the republic has had continued growth through the fiscal downturn.(Albeit at a slower rate.)
I now live in London myself, and have flights booked with BA to New York during the Royal Wedding weekend (had to take advantage of the extra bank holidays
) but would have loved to try the pre-clearance at Dublin!
Population of Ireland peaked at about 4.4m (estimated) in 2009 and is expected to have devlined since (next census is April so we'll have a clearer picture), Northern Ireland is circa 1.6m in the same year expected to reach 1.8 in 2011. Overall, the island's population is circa 6m, still well down on the pre-famine high of the 1830's at 8.5m (estimated).
JAS
JAS
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Northern Ireland's population is set to pass 1.8 million at some point this year. But it hasn't grown 200,000 in 2 years or 12% as you state since 2009.
See here: 27 May 2010 - Population growth expected to be strongest in West and South of Northern Ireland | Northern Ireland Executive
Furthermore, the republics population hasn't declined. Recent sources have shown that the greatest migration occurred in 2009/2010 of in the region of 40k, yet with this factored with natural increase, the republics population had a net gain of circa 10k.
See here:http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...ent/popmig.pdf
So I'm correct in saying Ireland as a whole has a population around 6.3million. And if the economy gets back on track, and average growth resumes as experienced in Austria and Sweden in the past decade, I'd say I'll be 60-65 when the Islands population surpasses the pre-famine high.
*Sweden and Austria having experienced growth of around 300k+ in the past ten years.
See here: 27 May 2010 - Population growth expected to be strongest in West and South of Northern Ireland | Northern Ireland Executive
Furthermore, the republics population hasn't declined. Recent sources have shown that the greatest migration occurred in 2009/2010 of in the region of 40k, yet with this factored with natural increase, the republics population had a net gain of circa 10k.
See here:http://www.cso.ie/releasespublicatio...ent/popmig.pdf
So I'm correct in saying Ireland as a whole has a population around 6.3million. And if the economy gets back on track, and average growth resumes as experienced in Austria and Sweden in the past decade, I'd say I'll be 60-65 when the Islands population surpasses the pre-famine high.
*Sweden and Austria having experienced growth of around 300k+ in the past ten years.
To answer your question about loads to the west coast on previous flights,having operated many of them I can confirm that loads were generally very good in premier and economy on both destinations with cargo loads of about 10 tonnes each way.
This was rarely a cause for performance restrictions at Dublin with EIDUO having extra thrust if required.
This is a management call as they have the best figures and projections,
I would say it comes down to the future price of oil.
This was rarely a cause for performance restrictions at Dublin with EIDUO having extra thrust if required.
This is a management call as they have the best figures and projections,
I would say it comes down to the future price of oil.