CARDIFF

[fanrailuk]

Belfast City BHD

Thanks to WW basing a new a/c at BHD from March, the CWL will slot in-between the 3 daily STN (ex weekends) and will go 6 x weekly year-round! Good times.

[Jamie2k9]

The BHO based aircraft will operate to Cardiff on Saturday morning and will return to BHO on Sunday. So will operate some routes from Cardiff.

[merchant sailors]

are you sure this is a BHD based unit? ie: where is the aircraft actually coming from. I think their current fleet is EMA x 7 or 8 BHX x 2 MAN x 2 CWL x 2
can't see them reducing EMA as tinytown focus is about protection of home turf vs FR and LS

I suspect you may find it means losing another unit from either BHX, MAN or CWL.

[OltonPete]

Baby EDI

Has baby announced Edinburgh ending?

I thought it was on sale 4 weekly in the summer but last flight
is 27/03/2011 per the booking engine.

merchant sailors

The baby fleet is currently 14 with 12 operating at present
(up to 6 EMA and 2 at the other bases).

Late March will see 1 BHD/CWL, 6/7 EMA, 2/3 BHX, 2 CWL & 2 MAN.

June sees 7/8 EMA & 3 BHX, 2 MAN & CWL & 1 BHD/CWL.

The schedule has no chance of operating with 14 from June
and I assume EMA will be adjusted to 7 rather than BHX/MAN
or Cardiff losing one.

Pete

[mathers_wales_uk]

Before the announcement of the BHD aircraft Edinburgh was on sale 4 x weekly on Mon, Tue, Fri, Sun for summer 2011 however it has now since disapeared.

You can check what the shcedule looked like up to two days ago by clicking here

Olton.

Do you believe that Cardiff will be a full time 2 based aircraft with part time on 3rd or do you believe it's a fullt time aircraft with part based seccond?

[mathers_wales_uk]

I have been looking at the schedule for the BHD/CWL aircraft

Mon-Fri

BHD-STN 0700-0820 STN-BHD 0845-1010
BHD-CWL 1035-1135 CWL-BHD 1255-1355
BHD-STN 1420-1540 STN-BHD 1605-1730
BHD-STN 1805-1925 STN-BHD 1950-2115

Sat

BHD-CWL 0700-0800

Sun

CWL-BHD 1530-1630
BHD-STN 1655-1815 STN-BHD 1840-2005

It is clear that CWL will have the BHD based aircraft during Saturday and also on Sunday morning.

All we need clarified is whether or not CWL is going to have two full time aircraft with visiting aircraft or one full time aircraft with visiting aircraft.

Only the Edinburgh has been removed so far from the system.

[uncovered]

Baby

CWL will only have one based aircraft with the BHD aircraft visiting at the weekend.

[OltonPete]

Baby

mathers_wales_uk

Last night when I checked the baby site there were two aircraft
scheduled for Saturday but three needed for Sunday. If uncovered
is right then there is going to quite a few frequency cuts in the week
to cover AGP, ALC, PMI, MJV, FAO, MAH, MUC, JER & IBZ from June onwards with one aircraft.



Pete

[mathers_wales_uk]

Thanks Olton Pete,

That is what i had seen so hopefully it is EMA which finally gets their share of cuts.

[planenut321]

CWL will be 1 based for Summer 2011 with 2 on Sat/Sun.

Alicante- 3 weekly down from 7.
Belfast - 6 weekly (BHD aircraft)
Jersey- 3 weekly (same)
Malaga- 4 weekly down from 8.
Faro- 4 weekly (same)
Ibiza- 1 weekly down from 2.
Munich - 3 weekly (times clash all over the place for this...got a feeling this is going)
Murica- 2 weekly down from 3.
Edinburgh - Gone
Palma - Showing as 7 weekly but this doesn't fit in timetable so yet to be reduced. Could just fit in 4/5 weekly. Down from 8.

[OltonPete]

BMI Baby

At least they have acted fairly fast since the announcement of the BHD-STN
but no doubt some plans have been affected by the reductions.

One based unit is always a worry especially for next winter.

Surely Wales can support more than this?

Perhaps flybe might consider more in the future?

Pete

[planenut321]

Of course we can support more than this. At one point we were at 3 based aircraft with the possibility of a 4th with 2 million people coming through the doors.
In my opinion WW are taking CWL for a ride and are restricting any expansion from another airline. People say if WW left then no airline would fill the void but I am sure they will. If my calculations are correct we may see 1.4 mill in 2010 which is lower than figures for 2000! Before Baby even arrived. Shows how much good they are doing :/.
Well WW have totally dropped EDI so lets hope BE at least pick up on this an increase frequencies on that as I am sure they will on BHD with WW starting the route. BE would be great for CWL but the based aircraft still hasn't occurred.
1 based aircraft from WW is very worrying for CWL especially for Winter and I wouldn't be surprised to see 0 rotations on some days next winter which is just a waste.
I got a feeling we will become the next BOH/MME with Baby upping sticks and leaving.
I know...lets build an new terminal and see if that helps

[cym]

WW

Show them the door now.

I assume that any discounts etc will now be removed. Their continued presence is stopping carriers that would grow CWL from coming in imho

[fanrailuk]

I see the end is nearing...this is VERY bad news for CWL and the region.

[mathers_wales_uk]

Just had a look at the schedule for week commencing 18th July.

Jersey now cancelled
Munich Cancelled
Ibiza now saturday only

Also on certain days both the Malaga & Palma are showing as 6am/7am departures meaning either a re-shedule or more of a cull in routes/shedules.

I have a feeling that bmibaby now has a reputation of cancelling routes before they take off & frequency reductions etc that stops passengers booking with them.

Both ALC & PMI have been running 7-8 weekly with bmibaby for the last few years and this a gap that needs filling. ALC is no longer suitable for a long weekend stag/hen weekend trip to benidorm.

[planenut321]

MUC ends 2 Jan
JER ends 25 March
EDI ends 27 March

Great

[CheekyVisual]

It is a very very strange decision by baby to chop an aircraft from CWL to start a BHD operation. BHD is an exceptionally difficult place for a 737 operator to utilise even on short domestic sectors for which the 733 is totally unsuited in this day and age. FR struggled to make the STN route work financially that's why it is no longer there. The dispute with the airport over runway length was, as is so often true with MOL, smoke and mirrors. The BHD base didn't bring in the coin. For the 733 BHD offers no routes longer than domestics, something Ryanair ultimately couldn't live with, then you're competing with Fly Be with a much more regular schedule and more suitable aircraft and costs for the routes oh and you're also competing with big brothers LHR service.

CWL has always provided enough cash on the med routes to keep baby ticking over. Possibly the fact that each CWL aircraft only produces 6 sectors and requires three crews a day has just swung the economics away from the second aircraft as the lack of utilisation did for the third last year.

BUT

As I have said many times and I will say it again. Baby being at CWL is not preventing other operators coming in. Throwing Baby out will not result in a Jet 2 base the same afternoon. Jet 2 are not there because they don't want to be. If they wanted to be the fact baby has one aircraft based there will not stop them or anyone else. No one is scared of bmi baby, MOL and Stelios do not quake at thought of competing with them. The problem is that airline managers and accountants say "there's no money there" and baby winding down is only, in their minds, proving them right ! Strangely if Baby was doing very well with a five aircraft base you would be more likely to see other airlines there trying to nick that business !

I just feel sorry for those at the sharp end who will now face yet another Christmas of uncertainty about their own future ! Good luck to all of you and I hope it works out.

[Zelo]

Is it not about time the CWL management team just gave up?

On the face of it it started well for next year - Helvetic and Air Southwest. However, even the biggest fan of CWL must admit Helvetic is an oddball that will do well to last the summer season (doesn't even have connections with Swiss!). Air Southwest - more to do with the Eastern merger and selling a positioning leg than any desire to operate NQY-CWL?

Then the bad:

• Aer Arran: Lost Cork completely, and Dublin down to twice daily at rubbish times. Apparently not due to route potential, just aircraft shortage. Really? GD have managed to get Arran/Lingus 3 daily to Dublin, head to head with Ryanair!!
• TCX down to A320
• flybe Newcastle gone
• GD secure a 4th KLM - Cardiff stay at 3
• Baby: An absolute disaster. No more needs saying. 3 aircraft two summers back, now one. Unbelievable that the management can let it happen. And anyone who thinks Baby being kciked out would result in Jet2/Monarch falling over themselves to throw A321s/737s at us is sadly very delusional.

Fear not though, the airport website news section provides us with this jem:

2011 promises to be an exciting year for us, with new routes including Ibiza, Dubrovnik, Venice and Verona available in the summer and new airline Helvetic Airways starting operations to Zurich in March. We hope 2011 will be a successful year for the airport and look forward to welcoming more travellers from South Wales through our doors."

New routes: Dubrovnik, Venice, Verona. Not exactly though is it? Some eastern European charter doing ONE OFF flights for a tiny tour operator. It would be laughable if it didn't smack of such desparation.

The tidal wave of passengers over the bridge gets ever larger. Bristol must be p***ing themselves. They don't have to do anything to grow their passenger numbers, just sit and watch the decline at Cardiff and welcome people with open arms! Cardiff enthusiasts please read the Coventry thread. Last one to leave, please turn out the lights.

[TwinAisle]

As I have said many times and I will say it again. Baby being at CWL is not preventing other operators coming in. Throwing Baby out will not result in a Jet 2 base the same afternoon. Jet 2 are not there because they don't want to be. If they wanted to be the fact baby has one aircraft based there will not stop them or anyone else. No one is scared of bmi baby, MOL and Stelios do not quake at thought of competing with them. The problem is that airline managers and accountants say "there's no money there" and baby winding down is only, in their minds, proving them right ! Strangely if Baby was doing very well with a five aircraft base you would be more likely to see other airlines there trying to nick that business !

Can I suggest that as many people on here as possible print the above, read it, understand it, and then use it as part of their thinking when they post? Cheeky Visual hit so many nails squarely on the head here that I really cannot pick out the most important comment - but perhaps this line is the most vital:

The problem is that airline managers and accountants say "there's no money there" and baby winding down is only, in their minds, proving them right !

Amen to that. Forget the length of the runway, the problems with the road, the charges for the trolleys, the indifference of the WAG, the strengths and weaknesses of the management. The only way CWL will get more traffic is if airlines can see that there is a market there that makes economic sense to operate to and from. That's it. That's all there is to it. Continuous speculation about this carrier 'should' run this route, or that carrier 'needs to serve' this city are pointless. An airline will only do that sort of thing if they can make a profit on it. No evidence of market (and remember, we are talking revenue here, not just load) means no route.

I see the old EK chestnut is being pushed again.... just a few facts on EK for you....

1. They have the same number of destinations in Scotland as they do IN THE WHOLE OF SOUTH AMERICA.

2. They serve Gatwick about six times as much as they do CANADA

3. They serve Birmingham twice as much as they serve San Francisco

WHY would they want to push more metal into CWL, with all the load and yield dilution, when they have soooo much of the world still to cover? It makes no sense. Down in this part of the world, we joke that EK is now the Indian flag carrier - that's where their interests lie, not further saturation of the UK.

Why would EK risk a new route - with all the costs that incurs, with all the revenue cannibalisation, with all the effort and time that requires - when they could better use that time, effort and metal to serve an airport that has not been shrinking year on year?

Does CWL have a bright future? I think so yes. But it needs to prove its market. Right now, it just isn't doing that. I hope that the reason is NOT that it can't.

TA

[Facelookbovvered]

It can't make any sense for bmibaby to have one aircraft based at CWL with no other baby visiting aircraft other than the BHD aircraft unless it were to be a seasonal base for Summer med routes.

When does bmibaby put its winter 2011/12 program on sale?

I guess the reduction in the Med program for next Summer will mean that those that fly will be full