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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:09
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ryanair posts 155 million loss

LONDON (ShareCast) - Heavy write-downs on its stake in rival Aer Lingus (LSE: AERL.L - news) sent Ryanair (Dublin: RY4.IR ADVERTISEMENT


- news) deep into the red last year, with underlying profits also sharply lower.

The Irish no-frills carrier posted a loss of €180m after taking a €222m hit of its stake in Aer Lingus. Underlying profit came in at €105m in the year to March, down 78%. Revenues rose by 8% to €2,942m as air fares fell 8% and traffic grew 15% to 58.5m.

Ryanair blamed substantially higher oil prices during a year in which fuel costs rose by €466m (+59%) to €1,257m.

Chief executive Michael O'Leary forecast a better outcome in 2009/10, however. "In fiscal 2009/10 we expect to grow traffic by 15% to 67m. Significantly lower oil prices has encouraged us to restart hedging and Ryanair is now 90% hedged for the first 3 quarters of the coming year at much lower prices than competitors," he said.

"On the basis of these fuel and yield expectations (which carry a heavy health warning) we currently expect that after tax profits for the coming year will at least double to a range of between €200m to €300m," he added.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:17
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Befree,

They lost 169 overall but their operating profit was 105 million PROFIT. Considering most other airlines had operating losses this isnt bad, so to suggest they are stuffed is incorrect. They are the best placed airline out there.

Your comment re oil is again strange as all airlines are in the same boat and they are hedged at favourable rates until December so I fail to see how this is a negative.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:19
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Don't worry the crew will cover losses by working harder for less and by paying more for their uniforms/sim assessments/accommodation during training etc etc etc.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:28
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Each plane sold was over £3 million below book value. That means the current 181 airframes are worth over £500 million than book value.
Book value is NOT purchase price. It can be but in the majority of cases it wouldn't be as changes and improvements made to airframes over life of asset will enable it to be revalued. The write down includes planned disposals over the next year because as soon as you have an clear idea of resale prices if its less than book value you have to show the loss.

They sold 16 Aircraft for net proceeds of €314M or a shade under €20M per plane. Best estimates were that post 9/11 they were paying around $22-25M a plane. Looking at todays exchange rates then €20M is $28M, ok over last year it would be a lot less but even getting close to that after using for 6-7 years is a good result.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:29
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Thats right Ryanair, push that one out whilst the media is pre-occupied with a major news story - might not even get noticed at all.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:33
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That means will be a £5 surcharge for using toilets on board now!!
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:41
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Seems to be a bit of smoke and mirrors regarding the drop in price of the FR Aer Lingus shares.
Afraid its normal as you can't show the value of an investment you bought at its value if the share price has collapsed, I believe it is to prevent a company looking like it has great investments when they are worthless.......something which all the pensions funds holding shares in banks have found out over the last 6 months.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:47
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Thats right Ryanair, push that one out whilst the media is pre-occupied with a major news story - might not even get noticed at all.
You are a bit cynical but all these dates are booked many many months in advance so there is no way of knowing what story will make the headlines on the day.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 09:52
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The rise in oil price and the end of easy credit will hit all airlines hard. The problem ryanair has is that it must expand to use up all the airframes that are coming which means it needs to cut fares. The 2nd hand value of airframes drops quickly when the whole industry is downsizing.

The main way they can adjust to the down turn is to sell planes and reduce the rate of growth. Their planes are very young and getting 20% less for each will hurt. They were making a profit from seling planes 2 years ago.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 11:07
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Born Free,

I don't think you understand the model. Ryanair are agressive players, they don't only expand into new markets. ie Poland,Slovakia,Latvia. They are currently gaining market share in mature markets. Italy,Spain and UK. Normally at the expense of Legacy carriers and the Charter operaters.

At the moment the albatross around there neck appears to be the Aer Lingus shares. Not the availability of new machines.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 11:14
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Talking

Yes, I watched MOL perform on Sky News this morning I have to say that he was in his usual chirpy mood.
He did put to bed a rumour that overweight people would be charged more at the moment but, was always on the lookout for more ideas to enable the airline to be more efficent.
When challenged over the idea of charging folk for the toilet he said that they should go before boarding.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 11:37
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anna my apologies for earlier. my mis interpretation of article that I was reading in Irish Times.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 11:48
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The new routes to Poland from the UK are dying already as the labour market changes. Low fares need to be balanced by an increase in ancillary revenue so the high cost alternative ends up being a good deal as well. We shall see....
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 12:58
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Young Micheal was doing the rounds this morning as he pitched up on BBC Breakfast just after 8am and was indeed, in fine form there too.

While FR may be reporting a loss, you get the distinct impression that MOL is looking on this latest piece of news as falling into the 'all publicity is good publicity'.

I'd expect him to send a shot across the bows of EI and / or the DAA before the week is out to deflect the story even further.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 15:28
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Anybody calling for the CEO's head on a plate?
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 15:31
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Doubt that anybody who matters is calling for it.

Sure wasn't there free tea, coffee and biscuits at this years Ryanair AGM to keep everyone happy !!
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 15:54
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but there would surely have been a charge
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 16:02
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Not even to use the toilets as I'm led to believe from someone who was there.

Nice location (Great Southern), free drinks and biccies, Micheal did a turn from the top table and kept all the (mostly pensioner) shareholders rolling around the aisles.

The people that matter, the shareholders, love the man and won't hear a bad word said against him. Even todays news is unlikely to upset them too much as I'm sure FR and Mick have worked their hedges out better.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 16:29
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Mr O'Leary would not have gone on BBC Breakfast & Sky News Sunrise if Ryanair wanted to hide this story.

Good news for Ryanair because the underlining business is profitable despite difficult trading conditions.
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 18:43
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Despite the drop in demand it has inflicted, the present economical crisis has given Ryanair together with its cheap-fares model some additional time. The dramatic drop in fuel prices has made ”free-flights” viable once again, that's what folks are waiting for, presumably. At least for a while it will be possible to continue that way, to break-even next year or so, but in a longer run it's a very short-sighted policy.

The oil prices now are already twice as high as in in mid-February and even good hedges will not last forever. This additional time could and should have been used by FR to re-think and re-shape its business model. The "given" time could have been used to create a new approach to customers, to gain some independance from the ”buy because it is cheap” policy.

For many years, Ryanair has rejected any need to create a better brand, to attract other customers than the most sparing and stingy ones. As if it didn't matter that people could buy flights not only due to their cheapness, as it was unthinkable somebody could choose Ryanair also to get the most suitable connections with them. Instead, Ryanair has educated many people how NOT to pay for flights, how to AVOID charges, how to be SMARTER than FR want pax to behave.

Well, it's really funny to be able to get something for free from time to time, everybody likes it. But to make it possible, one has to care for those who actually want to PAY, it's not very wise to neglect them.

Thus, while many airlines pray for the end of the economical crisis, I'm not sure if it brings the solution to Ryanair's problems. Once the fuel prices are sky-high once again, FR will not be in a position to offer many free flights without further loss of the profitability. To cope with such a scenario, they should have already introduced some diversification of their offer, should have made in-depth analysis and should have created a different, consumer-centered system. As nothing happened yet, I dare to say FR is losing this relief time brought by the crisis. They simply do not see any need for change, bad for them, I'd say.
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