Ryanair - 6

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

True, but the comparison is made with the equivalent period last year.

[racedo]

True, but the comparison is made with the equivalent period last year.

Given they were 200,000 up in March V Easter 2008 plus launch of lots of new routes in April I would expect a decent April.

[burble]

Racedo,you're the man with the numbers, what was the overall percentage capacity increase over that period and how does this compare with an increase of 200,000 over the same period? Can only comment from experience but there are some very poorly filled flights on the network and I suspect that yield is down also. By what criterion are you expecting a decent April?

[racedo]

Burble

Have to wait until the numbers published however the reason why expecting a decent April are two fold.

1.) Easter in 2008 was in March and FR still managed a 200,000 increase year on year
2.) Number of new routes starting up in April

Definition of "Decent" is positive numbers v April 2008.

[burble]

Understood, however, my own caution to that is that FR have grown their capacity considerably year on year such that it would negate any increase in passenger numbers. Further I would add that aviation like every industry has reduced its yield on sales, I hope I'm wrong in predicting an alternate outcome.

[racedo]

April Passenger number

2008 4.7M
2009 5.3M

Increase 12%

Load Factor

2008 79 %
2009 82 %
Increase of 3%

In answer to Burble

Seats available
2008 5.95M
2009 6.46M

an increase of 8.6%

[befree]

Easter adds about 5% to ryanairs pax when it falls in April. looking at the last 3 months it looks like basic growth in seats sold is now around 7%. The average revenue per pax is likely to be down 5-10% so that total reveue is likely to be the same as last year. Costs excluding fuel will be higher due to greater flying programme. The results in June should be fun with a big drop in the value of Aer Lingus shares to write down in the books.

Looking at fares for the summer show FR are doing deep discounting in the peak holiday period. At some point they may need to admit that 2009/10 could be loss making.

Easyjet are selling off or returning lots of plane so the fleet will hardly grow at this hard time. They would be the main one to gain from BA.

[burble]

Thanks for the numbers Racedo. So its all down (as ever) to the yield, only time will answer this one.

[Seat62K]

I'd love to know how many of those 5.3million actually flew in April.....

[Based]

The results in June should be fun with a big drop in the value of Aer Lingus shares to write down in the books.

I wish people would stop making out that they're hiding their Aer Lingus investment. They've already recognised a €91.6 million balance sheet impairment charge on their Aer Lingus investment in their 2008 results. Up to their Q3 for this year, their results include a charge of €93.6 million to recognise Aer Lingus' €1.40 share price in June 2008. They also pointed out that there would be a further charge of €63.3 million in the Q4 results based on the share price being €1.00. Clearly it looks like it'll end up even higher than this but the point is they've already recognised a significant proportion of overall drop. O'Leary's gone as far as saying he'd prefer to be able to just write off the whole investment at this stage!

At some point they may need to admit that 2009/10 could be loss making.

Granted they're getting fuzzier with certain info (aircraft ownership details, number of planes in service, etc.) but the one thing they generally haven't done to date is give unrealistic profit/loss projections - but there's always a first!

[befree]

The full year results in early June will addup the writedown for the shareholdings in Aer Lingus for each quarter. It would be rougthly €200 million. They also may need to writedown the values of planes expected to be sold.
As Easyjet reported this week, it is a very hard time to sell planes and the airlines who are buying are having problems raising cash. Also the weak pound will reduce the income when converted into euros.

It is also very likely that may of the 5.3 million seats sold were dumped onto the market at near zero cost. many will end up in no-shows. See what happens on the 2nd June.

[racedo]

The full year results in early June will addup the writedown for the shareholdings in Aer Lingus for each quarter. It would be rougthly €200 million.

Already known about and reflected within share price and they have stated their position so it should hold no surprises to anybody there. 4th Quarter write down is probably 130 M.

They also may need to writedown the values of planes expected to be sold.

Again they have already taken write downs BUT have also taken deposits from future buyers.

I think most sold now were bought as part of the post 9/11 contract then original prices were pretty low but given you buy for $22M sell for $8M and have sweated them for 6-7 years then you have more than paid for it.

As Easyjet reported this week, it is a very hard time to sell planes and the airlines who are buying are having problems raising cash. Also the weak pound will reduce the income when converted into euros.

As they buy Fuel in dollars and Aircraft in dollars so Sterling being weak is not really a problem as there is a greater benefit in a weak dollar.

Assumming you contracted to buy a 737 for $22 M in 2003 for delivery in 2009 then in 2003 prices it was 20.9M Euros but if you paid on delivery it would have cost 15.5 M Euros (ok you pay a deposit and stage payments over the yearsand hedged) but clearly you will have enjoyed a huge benefit as the dollar has got weaker.

It is also very likely that may of the 5.3 million seats sold were dumped onto the market at near zero cost. many will end up in no-shows. See what happens on the 2nd June.

Has no impact on profits announced in June as results are to 31st of March but airline does make a profit from no shows as tickets are non refundable and majority of people will have paid with debit / credit card.

[jabird]

"It is also very likely that may of the 5.3 million seats sold were dumped onto the market at near zero cost. many will end up in no-shows. See what happens on the 2nd June."

Am I right in thinking that FR still have a policy of no double-booking. Considering this observation, does this really make sense?

[eu01]

Are you a baggage handler? Ryanair do not seem to be your friends...

Ryanair is looking at the possibility of getting passengers to carry their luggage all the way to the plane, cutting out the need for baggage handlers. "We would say to passengers ... take your own bag down through airport security, leave it at the bottom of the steps, we put it in the hold and on arrival we deliver it to the aircraft steps and you take it with you," Chief Executive Michael O'Leary told a news conference on Thursday.

Ryanair's business is centered around cutting costs and the carrier is planning to eliminate check-in desks from October this year, saving up to 40 million euros annually.

An airline spokesman said the group would not pursue the luggage plan if it jeopardized their quick turnaround times.

(Reuters)

[Charlie Roy]

An airline spokesman said the group would not pursue the luggage plan if it jeopardized their quick turnaround times.

More like: "An airline spokesman said the group would not pursue the luggage plan because it would jeopardize their quick turnaround times, however it's worth giving a press conference about it to get lots of free publicity"

[jabird]

CR,

Exactly, seems like the identical line as trotted our for the fat tax. Surprised it took them so long to do that.

Oh, and I see MOL has repeated that he might retire 'in 2-3 years'. Next, he'll be getting an award from Greenpeace for all the quotes he recycles.

[chrism20]

Exactly, seems like the identical line as trotted our for the fat tax. Surprised it took them so long to do that.

Have they now officially bedded this one? I never seen any response to it. Must have missed it.

[racedo]

More like: "An airline spokesman said the group would not pursue the luggage plan because it would jeopardize their quick turnaround times, however it's worth giving a press conference about it to get lots of free publicity"

Charlie Roy

They used the word IF which is the important one.

Two viewpoints on this
1.) Looking at cutting further down on cost which is the norm with FR

2.) Sending a very clear message to Airports and Agencies that longer term an Aiport with X million passengers may consist of
a building with a couple of check in desks because 95% of people don't travel with checked bags or check in
a building where few people work other than security / servicing plane

If an Airline (not just FR) follows this path then the Revenue earning opportunities for an Airport effectively vanish other than Landing charges, fuelling and some desk rental........that should give some Airport operators sleepless nights.

If that is not sending a clear message to Airports then not sure what is.

Investing millions in Airports is a waste of money especially when game has long since changed and you get Nil return.

There is the issue of security of checked in bags with prohibited items but thats not an insurmountable problem.

[Icare9]

cabin baggage allowance

Sorry, I tried a Search but too many pages to find it!
When did the cabin baggage allowance get cut down to 10kg?
I believed I'd seen this as 15kg when I booked the tickets, but now see that it's only 10.
Has it just changed recently or was I dreaming?

[jabird]

Icare,

I think it is 10k cabin, 15k checked, but size restrictions aren't so tough on checked bags.

If an Airline (not just FR) follows this path then the Revenue earning opportunities for an Airport effectively vanish other than Landing charges, fuelling and some desk rental........that should give some Airport operators sleepless nights.

Most people will still park their car at the airport, and there's always the retail / catering - I think MOL just wants to get his finger in these tills.