Easter adds about 5% to ryanairs pax when it falls in April. looking at the last 3 months it looks like basic growth in seats sold is now around 7%. The average revenue per pax is likely to be down 5-10% so that total reveue is likely to be the same as last year. Costs excluding fuel will be higher due to greater flying programme. The results in June should be fun with a big drop in the value of Aer Lingus shares to write down in the books.
Looking at fares for the summer show FR are doing deep discounting in the peak holiday period. At some point they may need to admit that 2009/10 could be loss making.
Easyjet are selling off or returning lots of plane so the fleet will hardly grow at this hard time. They would be the main one to gain from BA.